Handicap Race 1-Parx-11/11/18

[FakeNameChanged]

Okay, I know this is a crap race, but the kind I seem to be facing when getting to play.

Race 1-Parx-1m70yds-7500 MW4L-3&up

I’m a Factum-8/1 ML- Has some back class but mostly a Turf specialist- LR broke well and ran for 4f on a muddy rail and stopped at 12,500-n4L. Has not been <10-1 in last 10 races.

Malibu Midnight-2/1 ML- Probable 1st or 2nd PT favorite. 3rd in last race at same level. 2nd race for new 26% trainer. Was soundly beaten by in 2nd last race. A repeat of 3lr destroys this field.

Shotmaster-6/1 ML-Won his last race at n3L. His 2nd call last race makes his time the fulcrum for this race, if anyone uses that info. Looks to be a presser with some closing ability for Farro. Moderate back class.

Rings of Jupiter-3/2 ML-Failed at favorite in LR after being jostled at the start and angling out. This one has me scratching my head, as he is also trained by Pino who also trains the R of Jup was also claimed last race from Scott Lake who is same trainer that was claimed from. Prime power #1 and looks to be the class of this morose field. Should be favorite.

Vocab-20/1 ML-Been laid off since August with only two meh workouts. Trainer Brenda Wilson is 0/34. LR was 3rd at this level, 3LR was also beaten soundly 9.75 bls by the Would consider for exotics since he oftens hits the board, maybe the colder weather will wake him up.

Snowfly-30/1 ML-MEH- beaten multiple times by the & Elim

Secret Secret -20-1 ML-LR was 7th by 23 lengths at same level @5.9-1. Repeat of 2LR and 4LR puts him on the board. Looks like he “maybe” only fires every other race. Will watch the board a little on this one.

Cottonall-20/1 ML- Horse is mostly a sprinter although he hasn’t hit the board since April, when he was 3rd-1st-1st. Last 3 races pretty abysmal although last race at 12,500. The last week Parx has been showing 50% E & 30% P winning at this distance, which way above the norm. Now, it’s hard to say that Cottonall has any speed to speak of. Maybe he should be running routes. Another one I will most likely watch the board for signs.

Venezuelan Success-15/1 ML-Has not contended at this level. Beaten soundly by two races back and also the another time. Won back in June and 5000n3L. Race looks to atypical compared to all the rest.

It's hard to look past the favorites on these bottom level claimers, so I will watch the exotics and boards for any signs that aren't obvious from the pp's. Farro's horse at 6/1 looks interesting to me.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Okay, I know this is a crap race, but the kind I seem to be facing when getting to play.

Race 1-Parx-1m70yds-7500 MW4L-3&up

I’m a Factum-8/1 ML- Has some back class but mostly a Turf specialist- LR broke well and ran for 4f on a muddy rail and stopped at 12,500-n4L. Has not been <10-1 in last 10 races.
Yea, tough to take his 'class' seriously

Malibu Midnight-2/1 ML- Probable 1st or 2nd PT favorite. 3rd in last race at same level. 2nd race for new 26% trainer. Was soundly beaten by in 2nd last race. A repeat of 3lr destroys this field.
not a big fan, but this is a weak field. He showed some toughness vs. weak Delaware fields... if this uncoupled-Pino entry goes, he should attend the pace today. That's his best chance

Shotmaster-6/1 ML-Won his last race at n3L. His 2nd call last race makes his time the fulcrum for this race, if anyone uses that info. Looks to be a presser with some closing ability for Farro. Moderate back class.
Wanted to gravitate to this 'claim-repeater'. However, he got a DREAM TRIP last... Certainly a contender, will not be 6/1 though.

Rings of Jupiter-3/2 ML-Failed at favorite in LR after being jostled at the start and angling out. This one has me scratching my head, as he is also trained by Pino who also trains the R of Jup was also claimed last race from Scott Lake who is same trainer that was claimed from. Prime power #1 and looks to be the class of this morose field. Should be favorite.
This guy has no 'umph'. Maybe this field is weak enough for him to grind out a win, but I'm not betting my bankroll on him.

Vocab-20/1 ML-Been laid off since August with only two meh workouts. Trainer Brenda Wilson is 0/34. LR was 3rd at this level, 3LR was also beaten soundly 9.75 bls by the Would consider for exotics since he oftens hits the board, maybe the colder weather will wake him up.
Tossing completely out of Trifecta

Snowfly-30/1 ML-MEH- beaten multiple times by the & Elim

Secret Secret -20-1 ML-LR was 7th by 23 lengths at same level @5.9-1. Repeat of 2LR and 4LR puts him on the board. Looks like he “maybe” only fires every other race. Will watch the board a little on this one. Field is soft enough that he can get a late 4th or 3rd if he gets a trip. I guess he's your 'Giacomo', but I don't see it being contentious enough to fall apart to the degree needed to give him any chance for an exacta or win

Cottonall-20/1 ML- Horse is mostly a sprinter although he hasn’t hit the board since April, when he was 3rd-1st-1st. Last 3 races pretty abysmal although last race at 12,500. The last week Parx has been showing 50% E & 30% P winning at this distance, which way above the norm. Now, it’s hard to say that Cottonall has any speed to speak of. Maybe he should be running routes. Another one I will most likely watch the board for signs. Maybe I'm missing something, but he seems eligible for a N3L...?? Maybe watch for when he ships to weaker. Could run a 4th if things are very weak, as he'll probably be cruising back all race

Venezuelan Success-15/1 ML-Has not contended at this level. Beaten soundly by two races back and also the another time. Won back in June and 5000n3L. Race looks to atypical compared to all the rest.
Seems like they got him 'right' after that April layoff. Last race was OK and he was basically getting a race after having failed as a speed and as the weaker half of an entry. I also like that they galloped/worked him 7 days ago. If none of Pino's fire relatively big, AND he isn't hurt by the wide post (and Parx is notoriously kind to wide trips), he should actually be involved late. Include in exactas and tris and use as a 'C' in multis.

It's hard to look past the favorites on these bottom level claimers, so I will watch the exotics and boards for any signs that aren't obvious from the pp's. Farro's horse at 6/1 looks interesting to me. Not my favorite race, but I gave it a look because of your post. I'll personally look at using the 9 in an exacta if he's completely lost on the board. GOOD LUCK

...

[rispa]

Both morning line favorites in here are vulnerable IMO. My choice in here would be #3 Shotmaster - but only over a very wet surface. His last two wins have come over sloppy Parx tracks, and he appeared to be edging away late. Still, he might be good enough to win over this group over a dry surface, especially getting weight from his main contenders. Other than that, I am turning the page.

[jay68802]

Horses that have a P, are playable. (Original, huh?)

Good luck. Will add the as a flyer, or hope and pray type.

[CheckMark]

R1 Parx:
to win
2nd
or 3rd

EXOTICS
EXA BOX

[Immortal6]

Agree with others on the on an off track in the win spot. Fast track I'm looking at keying the on top. He looks to be the most likely to set or sit just off what little pace there is in the race. Underneath I'm looking at two longshots, the and . Vocab has been in the super 9/10 precious races, will be passing tired horses (there should. E plenty of them in this race.) Secret Secret was 2nd at this condition and distance 2 back and has a decent work since his last abysmal race.

Ex and tri
/

Small win bet on at >10-1

[Robert Fischer]

I wouldn't consider betting ANY of these in a N3L, aside from the 4.

[biggestal99]

For me, the chalks stand out here.

The 2,3,4 have pluses and minuses.

Nobody good to lay here on the exchange.

Will take the 3 at 4-1 fixed odds or better and for those pm bettors a

2,3,4 exacta box and look for better races down the card.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

For me, the chalks stand out here.

The 2,3,4 have pluses and minuses.

Nobody good to lay here on the exchange.

Will take the 3 at 4-1 fixed odds or better and for those pm bettors a

2,3,4 exacta box and look for better races down the card.

Allan

Locked the 3 at 5-1

Allan

[Maximillion]

Malibu at Midnight should have no excuses here....if he has problems putting away the Venezuelan Success I would be surprised, and I dont see his
likely overbet stablemate catching him.

[Tom]

Nice blend of slow horses and slower horses.
I couldn't bet anything t under 10-1, and even then, I couldn't play one. Maybe the at 10 or better.

This race reminds me how nice it is to have a couple hundred other races to choose from today.

[098poi]

$2 Ex


, / , , , = $12

[thaskalos]

I am using the on top...and mixing in the for second and third. The shows the on/off pattern that I have developed a liking for.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by 098poi

$2 Ex


, / , , , = $12

$2 Ex $12.20

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

R1 Parx:
to win
2nd
or 3rd

EXOTICS
EXA BOX

BOOM!

$5.60
$2 Exa pays $12.20

Too bad I didn’t have the tri and super mentioned came