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11-01-2018, 07:19 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Toronto
Posts: 1,934
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker
Track conditions this weekend are gonna be crazy. Very simply why I didn't travel to Churchill to break a streak of attending 10 straight Breeder's Cups was because of what we are seeing now. 
Anyway per the request:
Most Likely: Imperial Hint
Best Value: Big Drink of Water/ Line of Duty/Dueling/Hembree/Eziyra/Mushtashry/Wow Cat/Hi Happy
Tosses: Monomoy Girl/Bellafina/Complexity/Disco Partner-Stormy Liberal/Oscar Performance/McKinzie |
Just curious why are you tossing Complexity and Oscar Performance?
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11-01-2018, 08:17 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Missouri
Posts: 2,190
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Most Likely: Imperial Hint
Best Value: Eziyra, Magical
Tosses: Monomoy Girl, Disco Partner, Able Tasman (still playing just less than my other contenders)
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11-01-2018, 08:29 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Hard to see Newspaperofrecord losing. Hard to see Enable losing.
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11-01-2018, 08:34 PM
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#64
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lincoln, NE
Posts: 11,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by azeri98
Just curious why are you tossing Complexity and Oscar Performance?
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Complexity: I see a speed-riddled race and a horse that likes/needs to be on the lead. Has 2 to 3 speeds inside him and a couple on the outside. Has been clear at the 1st call in both races and romped on fast tracks. It won't be fast tomorrow, and more than likely thick and grueling. His numbers are as good as any, but I'd rather take a price that can sit with this field.
Oscar Performance: Has never ran a good race on good, soft, much less a yielding turf course. Also not sure he has really ever beat all that much. Not sure he finishes in the top half of the field. Look at his races in which he has faced 3YO and over. Almost every other horse in the field has beaten better.
Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 11-01-2018 at 08:36 PM.
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11-01-2018, 09:39 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Race#11: The BC Classic
Right now my top 5 “handicapped” selections in the BC Classic are:
1) Mind Your Biscuits
2) Thunder Snow
3) Accelerate
4) Discreet Lover
5) Roaring Lion
(Based on the current conditions and the weather forecast I’m thinking the track may be a bit off)
I give Mind Your Biscuits a bit of an edge because it has good race over the track and seems to handle any kind of racing surface. Its running style fits this race very nicely. Has an early 6/1 M/L and will probably go off even higher. It should be quite a race!
Good Luck
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11-01-2018, 10:04 PM
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#66
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Beat up 💪
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
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Today
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11-01-2018, 10:37 PM
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#67
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Solely because of track conditions, I'm throwing out all non front speed in every race on dirt, both days.....Playing all foreign horses on turf at 8-1 or more, shotgun them all.
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11-01-2018, 11:11 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Right now my top 5 “handicapped” selections in the BC Classic are:
1) Mind Your Biscuits
2) Thunder Snow
3) Accelerate
4) Discreet Lover
5) Roaring Lion
(Based on the current conditions and the weather forecast I’m thinking the track may be a bit off)
I give Mind Your Biscuits a bit of an edge because it has good race over the track and seems to handle any kind of racing surface. Its running style fits this race very nicely. Has an early 6/1 M/L and will probably go off even higher. It should be quite a race!
Good Luck
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Seems like you mostly favor horses that can close. Are you anticipating a quick pace or are just selecting these horses based on suitability to likely track condition?
Good luck to you too.
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11-02-2018, 12:01 AM
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#69
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.
There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.
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11-02-2018, 12:23 AM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo
Seems like you mostly favor horses that can close. Are you anticipating a quick pace or are just selecting these horses based on suitability to likely track condition?
Good luck to you too.
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Based the updated weather report (no more rain) for the next 2 days, I believe the current very sloppy dirt track and yielding turf course will be slowly drying out because of only cool temperatures. So it’ll probably be muddy (dirt) and soft (turf) today (Fri) and continue drying out slowly on Sat. How much it dries on Sat depends on the amount of wind and sun light it receives.
For those reasons I believe the early speed types will be at a disadvantage especially if there’s a number of those types in the same race. I would prefer those that run “on” the pace or just a bit “off”.
1) You’ll notice that Mind Your Biscuits (as a previous sprinter) now runs a lot closer to the pace in a distance race. Its just cruising. I doubt it’ll be far back early.
2) Thunder Snow should also be relatively close-up early.
3) Accelerate is always close-up early on.
4) Discreet Lover is a solid closer and may be substituted depending on how the track is: Has not performed all that well on off tracks. I may use Mendelssohn instead.
5) Roaring Lion a solid turf loving animal that also runs “On” the pace. I love the turf-to-dirt scenario, especially if the track is a bit off.
I recommend keeping a close eye on how the early races are playing and how the early fractions impact the stretch drives.
GL to all!
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11-02-2018, 12:28 AM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.
There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.
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I'm not sure why any one would select an animal that will certainly be outclassed at a distance it hasn't handled in 3 previous attempts.
Last edited by Nitro; 11-02-2018 at 12:38 AM.
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11-02-2018, 12:59 AM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I'm not sure why any one would select an animal that will certainly be outclassed at a distance it hasn't handled in 3 previous attempts.
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Because he has talent, enough to win a grade 1 race, and will be 30/1.
how much class is in here? IF the fav doesnt fire I think the rest of this, throw them in a bingo machine and you can pick a number. In that case I want a real price.
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11-02-2018, 01:26 AM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Because he has talent, enough to win a grade 1 race, and will be 30/1.
how much class is in here? IF the fav doesnt fire I think the rest of this, throw them in a bingo machine and you can pick a number. In that case I want a real price.
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Other than the odds assessment (which may even be a bit light), I completely disagree with your comments about Pavel. I’m not even sure we’re looking at the same PPs. If you really believe that horse has more talent than other’s in this race I would question how you evaluate Class to begin with.
This race is not just about the “favorite not firing” and it’s certainly not a crap shoot. There are quite a few REALLY talented horses in this years BC Classic, but Pavel in my estimation is not among them.
Yes, you guessed it: Its TOSS for me. Personally, even at 100/1 I wouldn’t bet that horse with your money. But who am I to talk you out of throwing your money at any long shot?
Good Luck!
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11-02-2018, 04:52 AM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Well thought I was being clever by picking Pavel in the classic only to watch Andy pick him.
There are a lot of horses with similar form and figures when you get past the favorite and I dont see taking a short price.
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Serling or Beyer? Do you have the link to Andy S' picks? He was lights out two year ago, this may be another up year. I enjoy his comments.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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11-02-2018, 07:59 AM
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#75
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whosonfirst
Serling or Beyer? Do you have the link to Andy S' picks? He was lights out two year ago, this may be another up year. I enjoy his comments.
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race preview videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/NYRAvideo/videos
I'm a bit surprised that Andy thinks Game Winner will let Complexity go, with Game Winner cruising along in a stalking position.
Tactically it makes a ton of sense, just have come to expect Baffert to be aggressive. Bobby loves speed horses, and likes to make it a test of stamina up front. That's his edge...
These tactics probably shape the race.
Andy is the best within the business, and he's thorough with his homework, so I respect his opinion on the tactics enough to question my assumption.
If Complexity and Baffert and Asmussen duel, Standard Deviation will have a chance to prove that he's Klaravich's Derby prospect.
But if Rosario and Game Winner just let Complexity go, it looks like a 1-on-1 stretch battle between those two.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-02-2018 at 08:02 AM.
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