What Is Missing?

[Handiman]

Another sleepless night. While tossing and turning, my mind kept wrangling with one question. And that question is 'What is missing' in handicapping.

To save time and space when I refer to capping software or programs or hand systems, I mean to include all that are listed in the software program poll and any others that might not be.

In general, I don't think there is hardly an aspect or factor that isn't covered or cut every which way from Sunday, by the authors of the aforementioned material. And each one seems to have it's strengths and weakness' I suppose. Yet showing a consistent profit is still considered the Holy Grail by most standards.

So what is missing? Why is it so hard to nail down winners on a much more consistent basis than experienced by most players at present?

If you have no thoughts or answer to this question of the ages, maybe you can take a minute and offer up what one factor you think is most important or predictive of winners. If a gun were held to your head and you had to select just one factor to use for the next year what would it be?

It eats at me continually thinking there is something that I am just not seeing that when placed correctly would solve the puzzle.

Handi

[LottaKash]

Handi, for me, my biggest blunders come when I overlplay the numbers to the detriment of undervaluing good and/or upcoming "current form"....That would be my #1...My best and most confident wagers & wins, are when the numbers coincide with good form....

I just don't do as well when guessing or mistaking the current form for something else...

Good form "looks" a certain way to me, and when I misinterpret or play, despite the lack of that "look", then usually, I am just a hit and miss mediocre handicapper....

When my numbers suggest strength, and I have the "look", the "look that is when "I feel it in my bones", my horse's just perform so much better, and I almost always get a good run for my money....When I don't feel it in my bones, it usually is because of "good form" being missing.....I respect that "in my bones feeling", now, more than ever....

best,

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Handiman

Another sleepless night. While tossing and turning, my mind kept wrangling with one question. And that question is 'What is missing' in handicapping.

To save time and space when I refer to capping software or programs or hand systems, I mean to include all that are listed in the software program poll and any others that might not be.

In general, I don't think there is hardly an aspect or factor that isn't covered or cut every which way from Sunday, by the authors of the aforementioned material. And each one seems to have it's strengths and weakness' I suppose. Yet showing a consistent profit is still considered the Holy Grail by most standards.

So what is missing? Why is it so hard to nail down winners on a much more consistent basis than experienced by most players at present?

If you have no thoughts or answer to this question of the ages, maybe you can take a minute and offer up what one factor you think is most important or predictive of winners. If a gun were held to your head and you had to select just one factor to use for the next year what would it be?

It eats at me continually thinking there is something that I am just not seeing that when placed correctly would solve the puzzle.

Handi

I assume that you mean that you had no other data available?

In that case, I would want "Form", ideally Form/Intent.

[goforgin]

So what is missing? Why is it so hard to nail down winners on a much more consistent basis than experienced by most players at present?

Handi[/QUOTE]

In my opinion, handicapping is very dynamic and with so many variables, it's impossible to quantify what's missing. Like a puzzle with missing pieces, an unfinished work of art or a poem by an unknown poet, handicapping provides us the stage to imagine, to question, to analyze and to hypothesize. Looking at it that way, nothing is really missing, it's all there, it's just that it's not what we expected or what we want it to be.

[offtrack]

H:

Here's to sleepness nights.

Sleepless nights are what I experience too when I discover new ideas and test them out. The excitement of a new concept is one of the joys of handicapping.

There is no one thing missing from all the software in the PA polls. Wrong question, I think.

I don't know what you are using now. And what your results look like.

What would you consider successful?

Note that the most predictive factors are not the most profitable.

My process has been: Measure my reults; do something to improve them; measure again.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Handiman

Another sleepless night. While tossing and turning, my mind kept wrangling with one question. And that question is 'What is missing' in handicapping.

To save time and space when I refer to capping software or programs or hand systems, I mean to include all that are listed in the software program poll and any others that might not be.

In general, I don't think there is hardly an aspect or factor that isn't covered or cut every which way from Sunday, by the authors of the aforementioned material. And each one seems to have it's strengths and weakness' I suppose. Yet showing a consistent profit is still considered the Holy Grail by most standards.

So what is missing? Why is it so hard to nail down winners on a much more consistent basis than experienced by most players at present?

If you have no thoughts or answer to this question of the ages, maybe you can take a minute and offer up what one factor you think is most important or predictive of winners. If a gun were held to your head and you had to select just one factor to use for the next year what would it be?

It eats at me continually thinking there is something that I am just not seeing that when placed correctly would solve the puzzle.

Handi

There is a major difference between handicapping and wagering. Handicapping is the assessment of risk, in other words the probability that a horse will win or lose, but there is no risk being taken because wagering hasn’t occurred.

Wagering is the execution of that assessment where risk is being taken against a personal risk profile which might be risk-preferred, risk-against, or risk-neutral.

Given the above scenario winning or losing is problematic at best.

[46zilzal]

I have found that major inspirations often occur subliminally just trying to get out when sleep patterns are interrupted.

[Granite]

What's missing is the unknowable.
Does the horse have physical problems that might hurt his performance today?

[Handiman]

There are some great answers and input in these last 7 posts. I really appreciate your stepping up and not just blowing me off.

I guess what sort of eats at my core is that in essence we are talking about the most simple of activities. A group of animals all of the same species running around in a measured circle. Jim Bradshaw had it basically right when he..paraphrasing now, said that ' it boils down to finding out which horse will take the lead and then establishing if he will run wire to wire or if a horse will catch and pass him and which one will it be'.



I use Handifast which is a program I helped develop. It's free so no promotion here. But a couple of weeks ago with just the default settings at Santa Anita it's top pick won 8 out of 8 races. But then I have seen it have just 1 winner and 5 seconds for a day and then other result combinations too. It just boggles my mind to see perfection one day, then near total ineffectiveness another and everything in between, when at each instance the same thing is happening. Some horses ran around in a measured circle.

I know I may sound a bit like Mary Popins or Alice in Wonderland but I just have the feeling in my bones as has been said here, that there is the answer just lying out there waiting to be discovered.

Oh well enough of my inane ramblings.

Handi

[Vinnie]

Handi:

How's it going? Nothing at all wrong with your "ramblings" so to say.
Handicapping is such an incredibly dynamic undertaking at times. One day or for several you can have a quick run where you feel that you have the Handicapping World by the "shorthairs", and then, in the next instant you come crashing right back to earth. I imagine many folks would naturally yearn for that magic bullet that would continually produce winners at relatively decent prices on a most consistent basis.

Offtrack said it well when he said that "the most predictive factors are not the most profitable". This is often true no doubt. I believe the eternal search for that black box in handicapping makes for a very incredible though often equally frustrating journey.

Thank you very much for helping to create such a wonderful handicapping tool as Handifast along with Douglas32 and Headhawg.

"You Fellas Rock"!

[Xman2]

I stopped looking for the winners long ago. I look for the value. Finding the value and betting it when you are going to get well compensated for the risk is the only way to ever make money in this game. Betting the value will produce enough winners at long prices to make you happy. It will also produce a lot of horses that barely beat the tractors. Patience is the key for me. Waiting until I get a good price and for when things seem right for this value horse to have a good shot is an art. Learning to do that is not easy, but then, anything really worthwhile never is.

If I had to rely on only one handicapping factor it would be late speed.

Hope you get some sleep.

Xman2

[ranchwest]

A lot of people are trying to build a supreme pizza instead of eating it to determine what's the tastiest ingredient on this pizza.

[douglasw32]

I think it has to do with Past and Future, your looking at the Past , exactly the same way, everytime using the program, and that is good objectivity.

The trick is the subjectivity.


Some would say Form, Some connections, pedigree, etc.

I say the Race Set up and Pace, like you did who will lead, and who will cath em, if any.

But all of that is future forecasting based on past performance.

And then as pointed earlier there is the problem of pulling the trigger on your risk assessment and not royally screwing that up with emotion.

[AAcoolguy]

Originally Posted by Handiman

So what is missing? Why is it so hard to nail down winners on a much more consistent basis than experienced by most players at present?


Handi

I guess if I were Dr. Doolittle, this game would be a cinch. Knowing whats going on in the horses heads would be invaluable. Why does the 50-1 beat the 3-5, only the horses themselves know. The best we can do is physicality handicapping, if I were proficient at that,that's what I would want if the gun was to my head. (too bad I'm not!)

[barshoe]

for me its CLASS GOOD SPEED Race Set up and Pace, LATE SPEED-EVERY RACE INIT-SELF HAS DIFF. CLASS ALL RACES R DIFF...CLAIMING $10,000 VS CLAIMING $10,000 AT ANY TRACK--ONE MIGHT BE A BETTER CLASS THAN THE OTHER FOR THAT DAY IT-SELF.ALL RACE R NOT THE SAME...A GRADE 3 MIGHT BE BETTER THAN A GRADE 1 FOR THAT DAY...ect AND SO ON.. EACH DAY IS DIFF.