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04-03-2012, 09:27 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,115
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R.O.I
cheers all,
My first post here after lurking for a bit,
Long story short im a 20 year player (weekend warrior type), and while I had my share of scores over the years (like im sure most here have) I have never managed to maintain a positive ROI over a full year.(did keep records when set aside a bankroll for serious play)
Really enjoy many of the posters here, my favorites being thaskalos (cant wait for this new section to expand), and cj with his straight to the point posts.
Ive always played only one circuit,but recently have been playing quite a few tracks and have somehow managed to show a positive ROI for 200 races. So my opening question is what is a meaningful sample size for a win bettor ?(guessing its a lot more than 200?)
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04-03-2012, 10:01 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,921
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Depends upon things like the average price of your winners.
As a general rule, if your prices aren't too far out of whack (like $13 or less), 2,000-3,000 bets gives a really good indication.
But don't let the lack of sample size stop you from playing. Just be patient and grow the bankroll instead of taking a 2nd mortgage.
Regards,
Dave Schwartz
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04-03-2012, 10:03 PM
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#3
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Vancouver Island
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
cheers all,
My first post here after lurking for a bit,
Long story short im a 20 year player (weekend warrior type), and while I had my share of scores over the years (like im sure most here have) I have never managed to maintain a positive ROI over a full year.(did keep records when set aside a bankroll for serious play)
Really enjoy many of the posters here, my favorites being thaskalos (cant wait for this new section to expand), and cj with his straight to the point posts.
Ive always played only one circuit,but recently have been playing quite a few tracks and have somehow managed to show a positive ROI for 200 races. So my opening question is what is a meaningful sample size for a win bettor ?(guessing its a lot more than 200?)
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Go to handicapping top five of Bris power plays and you will enhance your skills.
Last edited by bob60566; 04-03-2012 at 10:07 PM.
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04-03-2012, 10:09 PM
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#4
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Lacrimae rerum
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: at my house
Posts: 7,308
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If you have a smallish sample size, actual vs expected can be more useful than ROI. It gives a truer reading from the start, if I remember correctly. They will converge in large samples.
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04-03-2012, 11:57 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
So my opening question is what is a meaningful sample size for a win bettor ?(guessing its a lot more than 200?)
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I've been working on betting heavy on approximately 10 horses a month. It's never going to have enough of a sample size...
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb
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04-06-2012, 03:55 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 175
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BRIS power?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob60566
Go to handicapping top five of Bris power plays and you will enhance your skills.
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Can you elaborate? Are you talking about the BRIS power numbers?
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