Past posting

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

or, imo, if you are part of the syndicate or whale crowd, have the host track bet it for them when the bell rings as long as their bets are queued and ready to be placed.

I guess some people are eternally hopeless.

[Gorrex]

One other thing I've been wondering..


The times when there are huge drops at final I would bet even the large syndicate's arent happy. I think generally that happens when the public and all of the syndicates agree there is a price to be had. By the time everyone bets that good price is trash and no one is happy.

To me... That is the current edge/question in this. Predicting when that agreement will happen and betting against it.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by comet52

But the payouts change quite often during the race - something that people complain about around here often. I had an 8-1 shot going into the gate the other night in Australia and was excited to see it win, but the odds were 2-1 at close. That's kind of extreme but I've experienced similar many times. I've also had horses where the odds go up during the race and the payout is better than expected. I get that closest to post time is probably most accurate but it's not perfect. Would I make that 8-1 bet if it was 2-1 at post? Yes. The other night i had a 3-1 drop to 3-5 as it crossed the line, I would not have bet it. But it did win so I got the whopping $3.10 payout regardless.

You're absolutely correct that the largest changes in price occur between the point the pools close and when the final payout is displayed. But this is because it takes some time to aggregate everything. It also means that it's a complete myth that any team knows the exact payout of any combination and has the ability to act on it. By the time the final payout is known, the pools have been closed for a while.

However, there are still significant changes that occur between 90 seconds before the start of the race and when the horses leave the gate.

[lamboguy]

i just want to say 1 thing. if there is any past posting going on, i want to state its not going on at the race track that puts on the show, it could happen with the tote company's easily.

to past post you need 2 things, the right tote company and a c-band.

other than the known places where past posting takes place, Dover, Harrington, and The Red Mile. i know of no other. (Dover and Harrington only have it on their own host product).

[metro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I guess some people are eternally hopeless.

yep, and some eternally duped.

[usfgeology]

...

[Tom]

This has nothing to do with being a skilled handicapper. Parimutual suggest we are all in the pools together, I just think tracks should allow only one method of accessing the betting, not some that are done automatically.

Let them have whatever program they want to use, just make the bets like most everyone else does - at the windows, on the phone, or at an ADW.

We are never going to agree on this, so I am more than happy to essentially bet nothing anymore. And I never, ever encourage anyone to even look at horse racing. I go out of my way to discourage them, telling that it all fixed, everyone stiffs, yadda yadda yadda. I would not feel comfortable recommending a game that is imho rigged against 90%+ of it's alleged customers.

Isn't that a big deal in the ticket selling business? Aren't on line purchases strictly regulated?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by metro

yep, and some eternally duped.

That too.

[Sea Hero]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I guess some people are eternally hopeless.

So if people don't agree with you, you troll them? Seriously?

I'm self-banning. Forums I post on are moderated by people who respect the right of others to have a differing view.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

So if people don't agree with you, you troll them? Seriously?

I'm self-banning. Forums I post on are moderated by people who respect the right of others to have a differing view.

Trolling? Who's trolling?

I speak truth to fools. If you or they don't like it, then self-ban away...the less fools here, the better off we all are.

[PressThePace]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

So if people don't agree with you, you troll them? Seriously?

I'm self-banning. Forums I post on are moderated by people who respect the right of others to have a differing view.

Whatever you do, don't make the mistake of clicking on the off-topic general link. It's a tad worse over there..

[delfman]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The really smart money that is kicking our asses on a daily basis.

There are people out there who have figured out the game as it presently stands. They do things you can't do. Because you don't have their resources (resources include things like capital and brain power).

They are taking advantage of every possible edge (including rebates). That includes betting at the last possible second (it's not that hard to do, especially when you have a number of people working for you). THEY are balancing out the pools...THEY are making the pools more efficient. THEY are betting multiple horses in the race in whatever pool offers an EDGE to them.

THEY are pounding obviously under-bet horses at post time.

YES...they have this ability...they have the smarts...they have the technology to get it done...efficiently...day after day....just like a CASINO.

They have FIGURED IT OUT.

And they will continue to do this until the game changes...or the powers that be make it harder for them to do this on this kind of scale.

Period.

End of story.

I'm commenting on your post without reading any of the following comments...

I guess my first thought reading most of the posts so far would be, maybe they need to start shutting off the betting 30 seconds prior to being off.
This would be a ruff pill for them to swallow.
Tons of bettors wait to the last second to make bets.

In this day and age, I can certainly see why big win bettors would wait as long as possible to make giant win wagers.
With the type of shenanigans that can go on loading horses sometimes. late scratches.
possibly other factors I'm missing?


a high roller can be standing at the teller, and I'm sure those types of huge bets can go through rather fast.
A lot of Serious horseplyrs bet through casinos I'd imagine. for the comps, and the benefits.


In my experience betting online, it can vary from 3 to 8 seconds to get bets in on time. A lot of that depends on internet traffic and the speed of your internet connection.


I think this phenomenon is merely a product of the times. Without the current technology for instant odd changes.
I think what made me comment on this thread in the first place is that, I can't rightly understand why people risk huge sums to win,

with the possibilities of huge exotic payouts.
Win betting in most instances needs at a minimum 8 horses. In my brain It generally makes more sense with 5 or 6 horses.


I'm mostly an exotics plyr, so I almost lost interest in this thread.
If I love a horse enough to make a sizable win bet on him, the exacta pools are usually more lucrative. and I would just make sure to key him with enough horses.
I'll consider win bets if a card doesn't offer enough value in the exotics.


so, there is two ways to look at it then.
-whales and organizations are pounding win pools last second if enough value entices.
or
somehow people are cheating?

What, they are somehow getting bets in after the gates open?
I'd imagine at least before they cross the finish line? somewhere inbetween maybe?
a supercomputer that has some sort of a time lapse program?
Where they can make bets 30 seconds after the gates open?

I certainly believe that is possible. Sort of the same as how back when online poker was legal in all states, there were hackers cheating then.

If any type of change is to come to hracing then it would need to start with the bettors.
only they can create change
everyone else in the game is just scraping by for the most part. Not to say most bettors are showing a profit. that's preposterous.
maybe 10 -15% of the bettors show profits worth pursuing?

the big owners in racing don't need the purses. They aren't going to create change in the game.
they make their money in breeding.

the bettors would need to create action by boycotting the races.

[delfman]

yes, on second thought, it is 99.9% confirmed this is sharks feeding on the weak win pools.

the stupid betting public overbetting their false favorites.
If there is cheating going on, it is being orchestrated by the owners, trainers, and jockeys. maybe with the tracks help? who knows.


I've certainly seen many rides on favorites that looked very peculiar.


and if you rig the race the right way, you can have $100,000 trifecta payouts. and $200,000 super payouts.


but if there is race rigging going on I'd imagine it's coming from jockeys or trainers or the 2 of them in cahoots.
run that chalk out of the $ in a short field and collect on the exotics.

[delfman]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

When I worked at DRF, I was in a meeting with some MIT guys that had a technology that was looking at racing and betting pool data and automatically creating and submitting bets at a national level with no human handicapping and almost no human intervention at all. It was also self learning. As it accumulated more data it learned and adjusted its own algorithms. The team said they had an edge at both small and large tracks. The amounts they were putting through the windows sounded staggering. This wasn't even a team of handicappers using their insights and technology to create better odds lines and then submitting bets. This is was a team that flipped the on switch in the morning and then went to the beach. How do you compete with that?

a program that searched for a certain type of horse?, by mainly his odds, also using criteria from all of the other horses in the race. looking for horses with a certain % of value offered?
so they used criteria searching for horses that fit their requirements?
smart people always figure out neat ways to make $


reminds me of that old guy who made a shitload of $ betting the state lottery. he found the key.
and those sharp slot machine plyrs who look for the bonus machines that are ready to payout.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by delfman

a program that searched for a certain type of horse?, by mainly his odds, also using criteria from all of the other horses in the race. looking for horses with a certain % of value offered?
so they used criteria searching for horses that fit their requirements?
smart people always figure out neat ways to make $


reminds me of that old guy who made a shitload of $ betting the state lottery. he found the key.
and those sharp slot machine plyrs who look for the bonus machines that are ready to payout.

I tried to get as much information as I could, but they weren't talking much. They were trying to do a deal using that technology for marketing. It sounded like their betting program used pool data and betting patterns more than handicapping insights. I was hoping a deal was done just so I might have a chance to talk to them again, but nothing ever came of it. For all I know, they pushed the button once and stayed at the beach.