SANTA ANITA DERBY – SAT 4/8

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Did what he was supposed to do. It was a 'prep' race and he wasn't fully cranked. Needed the conditioning more than anything, and when headed still held them off in a solid time.

He is a serious contender. Likely 2nd or 3rd favorite.

even with winning practical move went from being being arguably the best in cali to be almost indistinguishable from skinner and the Japan horse in the race. that's not good. I hope he does go off 2nd/3rd choice. he's been downgraded outside my top 5.

[Bennie]

My bad on Skinner. He got 30 today for a total of 35 and will not make the derby.

[Bennie]

Just a little pre derby information regarding Practical Move and Forte. Horses who won a 2 year old 2 turn stakes race, do not do well in the Derby. These races include the LA Futurity, Breeders Futurity, Remsen, BC Juvenile and the Jockey Cup. LA Futurity - of the last 10 years I have on record, only Dortmund 8 years ago hit the board at 3rd. Breeders Futurity - last 10 years, no one hit the board with Rattle N Roll scratching last year. The Remsen - last 10 years , no one hit the board. BC Juvenile - last 10 years, 5 years ago Good Magic placed 2nd and 7 years ago Nyquist won. The Jockey Cup- last 10 years, no one hit the board. And two winners from these races , Cornish and Slow Down Andy never made the derby. With that, Practical Move won the LA Futurity, Forte won both the Breeders futurity and the BC Juvenile. And the winners of the Remsen and Jockey Cup, Dubyuhnell and Instant Coffee will not make the Derby this year. One of the reasons I look elsewhere when playing the futures because these horses always take money but rarely cash the first Saturday of May.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Just a little pre derby information regarding Practical Move and Forte. Horses who won a 2 year old 2 turn stakes race, do not do well in the Derby. These races include the LA Futurity, Breeders Futurity, Remsen, BC Juvenile and the Jockey Cup. LA Futurity - of the last 10 years I have on record, only Dortmund 8 years ago hit the board at 3rd. Breeders Futurity - last 10 years, no one hit the board with Rattle N Roll scratching last year. The Remsen - last 10 years , no one hit the board. BC Juvenile - last 10 years, 5 years ago Good Magic placed 2nd and 7 years ago Nyquist won. The Jockey Cup- last 10 years, no one hit the board. And two winners from these races , Cornish and Slow Down Andy never made the derby. With that, Practical Move won the LA Futurity, Forte won both the Breeders futurity and the BC Juvenile. And the winners of the Remsen and Jockey Cup, Dubyuhnell and Instant Coffee will not make the Derby this year. One of the reasons I look elsewhere when playing the futures because these horses always take money but rarely cash the first Saturday of May.

Since 2000, the trend has certainly been for late starting types or state breds/minor 2yo stakes winners (Smarty Jones, California Chrome, Funny Cide) to be the ones to achieve Derby/Preakness glory. It also appears to be an advantage to be an early stakes quality 2yo that misses all the fall 2yo routes but returns in time for the Derby (Grindstone, Silver Charm, Big Brown, I'll Have Another, American Pharaoh).

However, the caveat is that those types are either flame out (Justify, Fusaichi Pegasus, I'll Have Another) or turn into pumpkins (Monarchos, Red Bullet, Always Dreaming, Orb, Mandaloun, Cloud Computing, Early Voting) soon after.

Those top 2yo routes (all starters) obviously produce viable classic contenders but also are responsible for many of the top late season 3yos & older horses. Improbable, McKenzie, Mor Spirit, Shared Belief, Lookin at Lucky, Essential Quality, Maxfield, Knicks Go, Dullahan, Catholic Boy, Honor Code, Frosted, Keen Ice, Gift Box, Mucho Macho Man, To Honor and Serve, Court Vision, Gun Runner, Tiz the Law, Captain Steve...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Bennie

My bad on Skinner. He got 30 today for a total of 35 and will not make the derby.

That's a shame because he was arguably best finishing 1/2 length behind the winner who will be one of the favorites off his 2nd straight pretty nice trip.

[classhandicapper]

In part, I think the success of certain prep races and approaches is just random noise. Then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in that the best trainers try to duplicate the approaches and target races that worked well recently. That doesn't necessarily mean they are the best or only good approaches to training horses for the Derby.

For example, the Wood Mem seems to be dropping in prestige, but imo there's nothing intrinsic about that race that makes it a worse potential prep than any of the others run yesterday. If by some random chance it produced the Derby winner in 2 out of 4 years (or something like that), imo, trainers with the best horses would start targeting it more and improve the chances that it would produce another.

[Bennie]

Sorry Class, I should have waited to verify because I was correct the first time and Skinner has 45 points and sits at #21 because of the "invite" for Continual takes a spot. He could very well make the Derby because they just need one horse to drop out. If I were a betting man, oh wait I am, I would say if he stays healthy, he will make the firld.

[Someday Silent]

I'm not confident that Confidence Game and his 57 points go to the Derby. Then there are always the coughs and grabbed quarters that arise in the lead-up weeks.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

In part, I think the success of certain prep races and approaches is just random noise. Then it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in that the best trainers try to duplicate the approaches and target races that worked well recently. That doesn't necessarily mean they are the best or only good approaches to training horses for the Derby.

For example, the Wood Mem seems to be dropping in prestige, but imo there's nothing intrinsic about that race that makes it a worse potential prep than any of the others run yesterday. If by some random chance it produced the Derby winner in 2 out of 4 years (or something like that), imo, trainers with the best horses would start targeting it more and improve the chances that it would produce another.

I agree and have said this about the Wood Memorial for years. It's obvious that it has had a string of terrible luck in the Derby, nothing more. There's plenty of big time trainers and owners who run their horses in New York, and it is logical the pool will eventually produce another Derby winner.

Plus, check out the run the Wood had from 1986 (Broad Brush) to 2004 (Tapit). Just a list of excellent horses: Gulch, Easy Goer, Devil His Due, Unbridled's Song, Fusaichi Pegasus, Congaree, Empire Maker.

The Wood will cycle back at some point.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I agree and have said this about the Wood Memorial for years. It's obvious that it has had a string of terrible luck in the Derby, nothing more. There's plenty of big time trainers and owners who run their horses in New York, and it is logical the pool will eventually produce another Derby winner.

Plus, check out the run the Wood had from 1986 (Broad Brush) to 2004 (Tapit). Just a list of excellent horses: Gulch, Easy Goer, Devil His Due, Unbridled's Song, Fusaichi Pegasus, Congaree, Empire Maker.

The Wood will cycle back at some point.

No it won't, those days aren't coming back. It has been 22 years since a Wood winner won the Derby. The best three year olds go to Florida or Arkansas and now Kentucky thanks to getting rid of that stupid synthetic surface. Sure some day a Wood winner will win the Derby but it will be a fluke, certainly not a future star.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Someday Silent

I'm not confident that Confidence Game and his 57 points go to the Derby. Then there are always the coughs and grabbed quarters that arise in the lead-up weeks.

Though I don't agree with the "train 'em up" to the Derby method, it seems like Desormeaux would be content to do just that (at this point the possibilities were Blue Grass, Lexington, or straight to Derby):

"The horse has got a great foundation—seven starts, five route races—just not convinced he needs another race," he said. "I think I have a legit not only Derby contender but a Triple Crown contender. So I'm thinking past the Derby. I want to keep him fresh for all three races. And that's what's going into the decision." (Blood-Horse 3/24)

He just worked yesterday 4/8 at Churchill in 1:00 2/5 for 5 furlongs.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Bennie

Sorry Class, I should have waited to verify because I was correct the first time and Skinner has 45 points and sits at #21 because of the "invite" for Continual takes a spot. He could very well make the Derby because they just need one horse to drop out. If I were a betting man, oh wait I am, I would say if he stays healthy, he will make the firld.

At #21 I think he definitely makes the field. Thought he was gonna end up around #25 or so.

Very intriguing horse. Skinner ran great yesterday while being closer to the pace. While he sat 6th, he was only 4 back after 4F and ran 3 and 4 wide around the entire track while coming late. He keeps getting better as the distances increase.

As long as he doesn't get shuffled back to the back end of the field, he is a dangerous horse in the Derby IMO. And I don't think he gets shuffled too far back in a field full of closers and deep closers.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by zico20

No it won't, those days aren't coming back. It has been 22 years since a Wood winner won the Derby. The best three year olds go to Florida or Arkansas and now Kentucky thanks to getting rid of that stupid synthetic surface. Sure some day a Wood winner will win the Derby but it will be a fluke, certainly not a future star.

never mind win the derby. the horses can't even hit the board anymore. you make money just auto tossing all of them. there have been a few decent ones in the past 10 years.

pretty sure only looking at lee is the only one in many years. and you really can't even consider him a wood horse

[Spalding No!]

Last year’s Wood produced the winners of 2/3rds of the TC

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Last year’s Wood produced the winners of 2/3rds of the TC

Yeah. We also had Cloud Computing in the Preakness a couple of years back. And while everyone here knows I wasn't on the Tacitus bandwagon, he did come back and win a major stakes against open company.

There's no reason to dunk on the Wood.