Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-02-2008, 01:58 AM   #1
winningponies
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 335
Thumbs up Who Are Your Top Derby Choices?

For the Derby, we like Big Brown, who is also the choice of many. There are people who are doubting the horse saying he's not experienced enough, didn't face any real competition, can't go wire to wire in the Derby, etc. However, I think we still haven't really seen what the horse can do. In his 3 easy wins, the horse was never really used. If he had someone pressing him, he could have ran even faster. Also, we like the fact that his monster prep race was on a natural dirt surface. If it does indeed rain and give us a wet track, I think it would naturally help this speed horse. The 20 post will be tough though and will probably force him to the lead early and would eliminate any chance of trying to rate the horse a bit (as in his 2nd race). It is questionable why they didn't take one of the available inside posts when there would be no speed on his outside. Enough about the chalk. We also like some longer shots. According to our analysis, Denis of Cork looks very strong. He may have been steadied in the Illinois Derby; it seemed as though he just didn't fire. This may seem like a surprise pick to some but if he puts out a performance like the Southwest, and can get the longer distance, he will be in the mix coming for home.

Also, don't rule out the filly. Eight Belles hasn't raced against the boys, but has a lot of experience and has shown some monster performances. Her last race in the Fantasy was much more impressive than most of the colts in their last preps. Also, she has some great workouts.

Gayego should also be considered, especially if the track ends up wet. We also think Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air (2 for 2 on wet track), and Colonel John should be used in Tri's and Super's.
__________________
Horstradamus
Senior Handicapper
WinningPonies.com
winningponies is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 08:00 AM   #2
nobeyerspls
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Florida/Southern Ontario
Posts: 653
Too early to pick

It's the morning before Derby day and it's still too early to finalize a selection. For some of the entrants, surface condition is a huge issue. I need to see if they get the rain they expect and if the track will be drying out by post time. Given the right surface I expect a strong showing by Court Vision.
nobeyerspls is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 08:18 AM   #3
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,513
Big Brown
Eight Belles
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 08:47 AM   #4
Bubbles
Frontrunner
 
Bubbles's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Pasadena, CA
Posts: 2,797
Colonel John, followed by Eight Belles, Z Fortune, and/or Monba underneath.
__________________
Aspiring turf writer and handicapper. Follow me on Twitter at @AndrewChampagne!
Bubbles is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 10:38 AM   #5
LemonSoupKid
Registered User
 
LemonSoupKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
Any projections

On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.

Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?

LemonSoupKid
LemonSoupKid is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 11:03 AM   #6
shanta
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,988
To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!

Pyro
shanta is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 11:08 AM   #7
Semipro
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 285
Quote:
Originally Posted by shanta
To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!

Pyro
Maybe you just don't do it Pyro won't hit the board will prove to be the pig.
Semipro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 11:47 AM   #8
46zilzal
velocitician
 
46zilzal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,248
Quote:
Originally Posted by shanta
To ignore Pyro in this field against these pigs is like ignoring Melman's avatar if she were on a nude beach.

You just don't do it!
Regression in the last two says otherwise.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
46zilzal is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 12:15 PM   #9
Bruddah
Veteran
 
Bruddah's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 2,277
My longshot pick

Win...Visionaire
Plc....Colonel John (box the top two)
shw...Pyro-Eight Belles-Big Brown- Gayego-Z Fortune (trifecta-Super)

$2 tri part wheel

8-10
8-10
5-6-9-20
5-6-9-20 (trifecta-Super)
Bruddah is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 12:32 PM   #10
BIG HIT
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Posts: 737
Derby

Hi guys my top pick is colonial john won in same spd as big brown.My second would be#2 he could he can run as fast as #20 pace wise.And then thrid choice would be big brown he show's everything.But i think could very well bounce.Which think he will.Exacta box #2 #10 #20
BIG HIT is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 12:41 PM   #11
chickenhead
Lacrimae rerum
 
chickenhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: at my house
Posts: 7,308
key part wheel in all slots, several times

pyro -- garbage truck brigade
chickenhead is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 12:59 PM   #12
winningponies
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 335
Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
On rain? I've heard lots Friday night and then into Saturday morning.

Will it dry down a bit by Saturday post time?

LemonSoupKid
LemonSoupKid, we are also surprised that there has been not much talk regarding a possible wet track.

It seems like there is 50% chance of precipitation all day today, and 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms starting at about 11pm and through the night. For tomorrow, it seems like 100% chance of light rain/thunderstorms in the morning up to 11am and then 70% chance from 11am on.
__________________
Horstradamus
Senior Handicapper
WinningPonies.com
winningponies is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 01:27 PM   #13
ny0707ny
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New York
Posts: 285
Colonel John is the only horse I like. Last year I picked Hard Spun.
ny0707ny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 01:35 PM   #14
Marshall Bennett
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Houston , Tx.
Posts: 9,564
1. ZFortune
2. Big Brown
3. Pyro
4. Visionaire
Marshall Bennett is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-02-2008, 01:58 PM   #15
LemonSoupKid
Registered User
 
LemonSoupKid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 930
CJ

The wet track hurts C. John, methinks

I'll post my picks tonight.

Lemon
LemonSoupKid is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.