Shared Belief Stakes

[classhandicapper]

I just watched the replay of the race.

I'm surprised no one mentioned that #6 Cezanne (trained by Baffert)l came in at the start, bumped Honor AP and cost him and Kiss Today Goodbye a bit at the start. That probably helped Thousand Words (also trained by Baffert) get loose on the lead. Honor AP did move early after the slowish start to try to get closer.

Normally, I would think nothing of an incident like this. But this is not the first time we've seen something like this happen in a stake. A cynical mind could believe it was a tag team match.

[Robert Fischer]

Prat did not commit a foul, and his ride is completely legit, and defendable. Nothing about his ride even shows any proof of intent.


that said,

• the race was not filled, and Baffert's network ended up with complete strategic control and little randomness
• Shirreffs failed to enter one (or two? the way these guys apparently operate) Rabbits/fullbacks
• Thousand Words went from a lesser horse to a Grade 1 talent who outworked Cezanne significantly coming into the race
• Cezanne did bump Honor A. P. at the break, and while it may have made no difference, it did leave Smith/A. P. regrouping before the 1st turn
• Smith was behind the eight ball and opted to move forward wide on the first turn
• When Smith began to rate for the stretch drive, on the back stretch, Prat moved up and split horses taking a path

Honor A. P. faced a bunch of adversity, and did a good job not throwing in the towel. He was rewarded with 2nd money + points for continuing on with the late flow.

Thousand Words may have been too talented and had too much lone speed for Honor A. P., in a 4 horse 8.5f race.

[Wiley]

I guess because it is expected and par for the course. I try to avoid races Baffert is in, tough to do in the big races, especially the 3 year old ones.

Awhile back, Tom Amoss was commentating on the Day at the Races, and a New York race had some interference/herding issues down the stretch and Tom was asked if the interfering horse would come down, and he said something like, "if he's trained by a Chad Brown he won't"

Tom also had a funny line when Chad Brown had won maybe his 100th stakes race? at Saratoga, and Tom said, "At my current rate, I would have to live to be a thousand to get to that number"

[classhandicapper]

Prat did not commit a foul, and his ride is completely legit, and defendable. Nothing about his ride even shows any proof of intent.

I agree.

It's just about the 5th coincidence I can remember where a contender was bumped by a Baffert horse giving the other Baffert horse an advantage.

[GMB@BP]

Just felt like a normal bump. Interesting for the second weekend in a row that Prat made a bit of a middle move where is known as being a patient rider.

I bet Thousand Words so I was thrilled at the way the race developed.

[Tom]

I was underwhelmed by the race.
Almost as interesting as the Whitney.

Graded Stakes races have become fillers.

[dilanesp]

How appropriate that this race was named for Shared Belief.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

How appropriate that this race was named for Shared Belief.

Shared Belief's passing was a terrible loss for racing.

These 3yos are pretty good, but Shared Belief would have won this race whether he was bumped or tag teamed. It took a mugging and a merry go round race on a speed favoring track to beat him.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Shared Belief's passing was a terrible loss for racing.

These 3yos are pretty good, but Shared Belief would have won this race whether he was bumped or tag teamed. It took a mugging and a merry go round race on a speed favoring track to beat him.

As I recall, he was mugged in two races.

[jay68802]

Going to agree with Class on this race. Honor was the best horse, with a bad trip.

[taxicab]

Considering it was only a four horse field,there was a bit to the Shared Belief........and I believe the top two will find the winners circle in big events down the road.
Simply put,Thousand Words just feels like a 3yo who has gotten good fast.....he'll win something of note at some point.
As pointed out in this thread,Honor A.P took a tough trip.
He had alot of things going against him in the Shared Belief:
Ground loss......DMR played better towards the inside Saturday then it had the entire meet,no real bias......it just went that way.
HAP made the dreaded "rush up wide" move on the first turn,and he was stuck wide thereafter........very ill advised in a four horse field......cost him plenty.
Betting Mike Smith nowadays can be dicey,up until a few years ago he was still "Money Mike"......he was the goods.......not anymore,age catches up with every athlete......MS is no different,he'll still find the winners circle.......but he's not nearly what he used to be.
As mentioned,Honor A.P. took a hard bump out of the gate.....the fact that he ran on with the bump and ground loss was a credit to trainer John Shirreffs and HAP's heart.
Honor A.P. wants every bit of the tenth furlong.......that was obvious the final 1/16th......he's custom made for the Derby.
I think he's right in the Derby,Mike Smith just has to be careful.

[GMB@BP]

If Mike would have had him in last in a 4 hours field chasing 24 and 48 at 1/5 I can guarantee you he would have been roasted on social media. I know trying to actually win the race by pushing the pace is not en vogue anymore.

[classhandicapper]

Anyone that watched head on replay could see the Baffert horse came in at the start and bumped him hard enough to hurt his positioning. What to do next is always a tough choice because you either have to accept that worse position (in this case behind a moderately slow pace) or use your horse prematurely to get where you want to be and have less left later. It's doubly tough if you are going to have move prematurely while wide.

People will whine about everything, but imo there was no good option other than hoping he was good enough to overcome the disadvantage.

I still think he has a chance to break out and become the best 3yo. John Shirreffs likes to keep his horses fresh and save their best races for the big dances. He tips it off with how he works them. If he works Honor AP really hard before the Derby, expect some kind of move forward.

[jay68802]

Really want to see a nice 7 f work from him right before the Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If Mike would have had him in last in a 4 hours field chasing 24 and 48 at 1/5 I can guarantee you he would have been roasted on social media. I know trying to actually win the race by pushing the pace is not en vogue anymore.

I agree.

Hand was basically forced.

He was on what was believed to be much-the-best horse, and his biggest threat appeared to be someone else (like Baffert's ) slipping away on a loose lead.