NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[Tom]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

That's a very good question.

You'd be surprised, but a lot of people in Saratoga don't like the racing. They leave. It's the local business people that like it. But if there are no customers, who needs it?

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity!

OMG, what a town.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I co-sign on this 100%.

There are cost and health risk reasons to consider not moving everyone to Saratoga, but there is almost no reason for not running at Belmont now. The number of incremental people needed to actually put on the show is not huge and other tracks are already demonstrating it can be done safely. It's probably even easier at Belmont because it's so huge. It will be easier to maintain distance.

My hypothesis right now is that the officials in NY are especially skittish about allowing racing, even as compared to some other jurisdictions, both because of the high death toll in NYC and the fact that when they allowed it before, people in the racing community got the virus.

I don't have any insider knowledge here, but it's notable that on the one hand NYRA is putting out press releases and doing interviews, and on the other the state seems to be saying nothing but also not allowing them to open.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

My hypothesis right now is that the officials in NY are especially skittish about allowing racing, even as compared to some other jurisdictions, both because of the high death toll in NYC and the fact that when they allowed it before, people in the racing community got the virus.

I don't have any insider knowledge here, but it's notable that on the one hand NYRA is putting out press releases and doing interviews, and on the other the state seems to be saying nothing but also not allowing them to open.

I don't know this for a fact, but I think the positive cases had very little to do with the racing. People may make that connection, but it probably had more to do with people coming to and leaving Belmont for the work that is still ongoing anyway like training and care. Andy may know the facts on that, but I haven't been hearing anything bad or discouraging from my managing partner and he's in contact with our trainer constantly. Everyone I know still wants to race. We are shipping a horse we shipped to a farm to save money back to Belmont to resume training and get ready.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't know this for a fact, but I think the positive cases had very little to do with the racing. People may make that connection, but it probably had more to do with people coming to and leaving Belmont for the work that is still ongoing anyway like training and care. Andy may know the facts on that, but I haven't been hearing anything bad or discouraging from my managing partner and he's in contact with our trainer constantly. Everyone I know still wants to race. We are shipping a horse we shipped to a farm to save money back to Belmont to resume training and get ready.

We have a similar situation of radio silence from officials out here at Santa Anita. At this point I am not really believing statements from racetracks in this situation. A lot of them have not come to pass.

[drib]

Originally Posted by Tom

I heard on ATR that people there are booking Future Bets on their houses.

Pay $2500 now and if they run you get it for that for whole meet. If they don't run, you lose it.

Kudos to Saratogans for their gambling spirit in the face of adversity!

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $. Byck voices the unease among NY horsemen that still no indication when Belmont will be allowed to open. They both seemed resigned to the notion that there will be no fans allowed at Saratoga. Of interest, Byck (who lives upstate) says that he has heard that the Saratoga community does not want racing in their town if no attendance allowed. I guess those citizens lack the confidence of some on this board that the viral coast will be clear in the NY metro area. Sensibly, why run the risk of an imported viral explosion (remember studies have shown that just one spreader can infect a whole community)?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by drib

Not looking for another viral thread, but the notion that "NYC...may be down close to zero by mid May" is, sadly, laughable....of course, I don't know whether you are talking about new cases (today NYC added 1223; the state 2239; or deaths (198-230). Yes the curve is slowly improving, but that is combined with a continued rigorous lockdown.

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

Those death counts are always trailing and not up to date. They slowly get updated. So what looks like an extreme trend of improvement is actually partially just a delay in reporting. To be clear, the trend in NY and NYC is very positive, but not that positive.

[drib]

Originally Posted by AndyC

A death count of 198 would represent an increase of over 100% from May 2. I get my stats from the NYC dept. of Health website. I would be curious as to where you got yours.

The daily death counts are available in many places; heck, just listen to Cuomo news conferences (today he reported 231...same level as last 3 days). Here is a widely accepted website:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Several sources (mostly conservative) have been using Health Dept reports in an attempt to show that the viral threat is diminishing. They neglect to inform that these records only tally actual death certificates when received and there is a couple week lag from the real daily #'s. Here is a good discussion of the phenomena: https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-...aths-new-york/ Here is a discussion about how Fox (I hate to get political, but this is fact, not opinion) is knowingly misusing data. Hey. i guess all's fair in the world of politics, but the Fox news audience is heavily skewed towards older people, just the ones most vulnerable to death by virus. These reports (and they never issue a correction) send a message minimizing the viral threat, and it is not a stretch to think lives are affected.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by drib

I hate to get political

YouTube

[drib]

Sorry, Here are corrected links:https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-wrong-places/


https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-...aths-new-york/

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by drib

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $.

No matter who is right, we'll never even come close to proving it because aside from the loss of on track handle at Saratoga, 10s of millions of people are now unemployed, millions more are getting reduced hours and pay, many people that still bet at OTBs, simulcast centers, or casinos around the country may not be able to bet at those locations and may not have an ADW account to bet, and we won't have nearly the same racing schedule to know how much extra handle is coming in because there are fewer tracks open.

There's no way to control for all those variables. It's one gigantic guess, which I why I keep focusing on incremental expenses and risks.

Those are certain. We know exactly how much it costs to move horses, trainers, families, backstretch workers, and other employees to Saratoga for that meet and we know the risk to the local community has to be higher even if we can't measure it.

Throw a dart at the board.

If I was trainer I probably wouldn't go. I think I'd rather stay at Belmont and ship locally to MTH (or somewhere else that might be open) for a single start if I had a horse ready and then pick up again at Belmont when they come back unless I had a top horse for a stake. People (including horsemen) go there for the racing environment, entertainment, spas, and vacation too. Why should they spend a lot of extra money to be semi locked down.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by drib

Thx for the heads up on the discussion between Byck and Andy Beyer about the NYRA situation. They cover many of the points discussed on this board. Beyer seems to think that "Saratoga at Belmont" just won't draw the same betting $. Byck voices the unease among NY horsemen that still no indication when Belmont will be allowed to open. They both seemed resigned to the notion that there will be no fans allowed at Saratoga. Of interest, Byck (who lives upstate) says that he has heard that the Saratoga community does not want racing in their town if no attendance allowed. I guess those citizens lack the confidence of some on this board that the viral coast will be clear in the NY metro area. Sensibly, why run the risk of an imported viral explosion (remember studies have shown that just one spreader can infect a whole community)?

I actually think Byk said something in that discussion that almost completely encapsulates horse racing's public relations problem on coronavirus.

He started ranting about how Saratoga Springs residents who apparently don't want to risk a meet without fans, saying they had no right to object to NYRA running up there, because without the New York Racing Association, that town would be nothing, just like it was back in the 1970's, and they ought to be grateful to horse racing.

I was listening to this and thinking "man, does this person, who has one of the more significant media platforms in the sport, even understand that this virus is killing people?". I mean sure, Saratoga Springs, under normal circumstances, ought to appreciate NYRA, just like Orlando ought to appreciate Disney and the Coachella Valley ought to appreciate the music festival.

But doesn't he understand how something like this plays? Saratoga Springs residents are concerned about their health in a situation where 19,000 people have died downstate, and a prominent racing broadcaster is saying, essentially, "suck it up buttercups, you should be thankful we even care about your podunk town, so you need to get over yourselves and take the risks".

I think in many ways this sort of rhetoric is the product of too many people minimizing this thing and saying it is no big deal. If we get to run our races, ANYWHERE, it is a product of health departments and politicians and local residents granting us an exception because they think we are responsible and that priority number 1 is protecting people's lives. That has to be our message.

But there's a lot of people marinating in this "people aren't dying anymore, let's get rid of the restrictions and start living normal lives again" rhetoric (Byck himself went through some of that earlier in the podcast) that they don't realize that there a lot of people out in the real world who are scared of this thing. ESPECIALLY in small towns in upstate New York that normally see a lot of visitors from what is currently Epidemic Central, New York City, during the summer.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by drib

The daily death counts are available in many places; heck, just listen to Cuomo news conferences (today he reported 231...same level as last 3 days). Here is a widely accepted website:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Several sources (mostly conservative) have been using Health Dept reports in an attempt to show that the viral threat is diminishing. They neglect to inform that these records only tally actual death certificates when received and there is a couple week lag from the real daily #'s. Here is a good discussion of the phenomena: https://undark.org/2020/04/11/covid-...aths-new-york/ Here is a discussion about how Fox (I hate to get political, but this is fact, not opinion) is knowingly misusing data. Hey. i guess all's fair in the world of politics, but the Fox news audience is heavily skewed towards older people, just the ones most vulnerable to death by virus. These reports (and they never issue a correction) send a message minimizing the viral threat, and it is not a stretch to think lives are affected.

I am well aware that there is a lag in some of the reporting. I check to see where the data has been updated everyday. I am not trying to make a political issue out of this. I read the article you recommended. Well written, valid points. Early on I was certainly sucked in by the first numbers posted.

Nevertheless, the virus is not infecting more people and not killing more people on a daily basis. The trajectory is down and down quickly.

[drib]

Let's bring this to a personal level. 78 year old Iconic Hall of Famer Bill Parcells is a well known resident of Saratoga, living a couple of miles from the track. He has a past history of significant heart disease. I have no idea what he thinks about the virus, but would anyone, like him, welcome an influx of, say, 5000 people from the world viral hotspot?