Midnight Bisou vs. Tom's d'Etat

[classhandicapper]

Midnight Bisou = Beyer of 93

Tom's d'Etat = Beyer of 109

I see no reason to think those figures aren't accurate or that the track changed speeds, but you aren't going to find too many better examples of the limitations of final time figures for evaluating horses than these two performances.

Midnight Bisou made a strong run into the very past pace being set by Serengeti Empress and then won totally eased up with a Beyer well below her top of 104 and probably even further below her top in the Saudi Cup.

Tom's d'Etat stalked the easy pace of two longshots and went on to run a 4 point new lifetime top with that very soft trip.

I don't think there's any question those two horses are a lot closer than 16 Beyer points. I could easily be wrong, but I think they are probably fairly close.

Maybe Tom's d'Etat is the better of the two, but I have to think the Midnight Bisou that gave Maximum Security a good run (albeit with a nice rail trip) could give Tom's d'Etat everything he could handle. Maximum Security (if we assume he runs as well for Baffert) would certainly be the favorite over Tom's d'Etat.

[Tom]

So you thing she should run that race every time?
She was targeting that race against MS and Not this one - this was a prep to get her season started. Not surprising she was nowhere close to as ready to fire yesterday.

The figure did exactly what they should do - told us how fast she ran in her first start of the season. More importantly, they told us how fast those behind her ran.

Later in the year, am sure no decent fig player is going to use that race to handicap her changes in top races. That is not what these races are good for. Her performance yesterday did not deserve more than it got. It was not an A race. Eveyone knows that.

Do you bet football of preseason games?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Midnight Bisou = Beyer of 93

Tom's d'Etat = Beyer of 109

I see no reason to think those figures aren't accurate or that the track changed speeds, but you aren't going to find too many better examples of the limitations of final time figures for evaluating horses than these two performances.

Midnight Bisou made a strong run into the very past pace being set by Serengeti Empress and then won totally eased up with a Beyer well below her top of 104 and probably even further below her top in the Saudi Cup.

Tom's d'Etat stalked the easy pace of two longshots and went on to run a 4 point new lifetime top with that very soft trip.

I don't think there's any question those two horses are a lot closer than 16 Beyer points. I could easily be wrong, but I think they are probably fairly close.

Maybe Tom's d'Etat is the better of the two, but I have to think the Midnight Bisou that gave Maximum Security a good run (albeit with a nice rail trip) could give Tom's d'Etat everything he could handle. Maximum Security (if we assume he runs as well for Baffert) would certainly be the favorite over Tom's d'Etat.

They Beyer figures should just rate speed against race variant, thats why its tricky when they break races out.

Your analysis is spot on, and as I told Craig today its the reason why his figures are so great, I do not need to do a deep dive into the race pace, its there for me to see. If I did obviously the Beyer figure would be elevated for MB.

Here is my take on both these horses.

Toms d etat has gotten very good but that was a candy trip tailor made for a big figure. He is good but I wonder how that plays out if he was chasing McKinzie or Maximum Security.

Midnight Bisou is a very nice, consistent horse. Not great in terms of really talented fillies, but very good.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Tom

So you thing she should run that race every time?
She was targeting that race against MS and Not this one - this was a prep to get her season started. Not surprising she was nowhere close to as ready to fire yesterday.

The figure did exactly what they should do - told us how fast she ran in her first start of the season. More importantly, they told us how fast those behind her ran.

Later in the year, am sure no decent fig player is going to use that race to handicap her changes in top races. That is not what these races are good for. Her performance yesterday did not deserve more than it got. It was not an A race. Everyone knows that.

Do you bet football of preseason games?

I think Midnight Bisou ran exactly as fast she should have run given the setup she got and the weakness of the field behind her once she blew by Serengeti Empress and eased up.

I think Tom's d'Etat got a perfect setup to maximize his figure.

I think somewhere between 10-16 Beyer points of the difference in their figures yesterday was related to the different setups and competition they had yesterday and not what they were capable of running yesterday under neutral conditions.

[Afleet]

Was Bisou awarded the Saudi Cup winners share? Never saw the final outcome of this

[cj]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Was Bisou awarded the Saudi Cup winners share? Never saw the final outcome of this

I don't think it has been decided yet.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Afleet

Was Bisou awarded the Saudi Cup winners share? Never saw the final outcome of this

Its going to be very tough for them to dq that horse as there was no positive drug test after the race.

[cj]

Twitter

There is an interesting side note to this thread. Generally, a fast pace maximizes a horse's potential to run its best figure, and a slow pace hinders it. In this case though, I think it is pretty clear Midnight Bisou could have run at least somewhat faster given the ease of victory. Of course, that doesn't always mean she can run faster in a different race with a different set up. She has a history of running a little faster but not much.

On the other hand, a slow pace generally hinders a horse's ability to run its best number. In this case though, we have a long history with Tom's d'Etat and have a pretty good idea what he runs under different circumstances. It would seem a real stretch to think he could run any faster than he did yesterday.

I don't think there is any way the gap between these two horses in terms of ability is 15 points that final time shows, but I think it is really pushing the envelope to think Midnight Bisou is equally as good. In this case I think the algorithms I use did a really good job of showing the difference between the two races with pace included.

I also want to kind of look at ground loss in the race and see if that provides any clues, haven't checked yet. Just did a quick glance and Trakus has Midnight Bisou running just four feet farther so probably not a big deal.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...60896629395462

There is an interesting side note to this thread. Generally, a fast pace maximizes a horse's potential to run its best figure, and a slow pace hinders it. In this case though, I think it is pretty clear Midnight Bisou could have run at least somewhat faster given the ease of victory. Of course, that doesn't always mean she can run faster in a different race with a different set up. She has a history of running a little faster but not much.

On the other hand, a slow pace generally hinders a horse's ability to run its best number. In this case though, we have a long history with Tom's d'Etat and have a pretty good idea what he runs under different circumstances. It would seem a real stretch to think he could run any faster than he did yesterday.

I don't think there is any way the gap between these two horses in terms of ability is 15 points that final time shows, but I think it is really pushing the envelope to think Midnight Bisou is equally as good. In this case I think the algorithms I use did a really good job of showing the difference between the two races with pace included.

I also want to kind of look at ground loss in the race and see if that provides any clues, haven't checked yet. Just did a quick glance and Trakus has Midnight Bisou running just four feet farther so probably not a big deal.

I thought By My Standards would have made it much closer had he not lost so much ground, probably not have won but maybe next time the odds will be such he will be worth a bet.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I thought By My Standards would have made it much closer had he not lost so much ground, probably not have won but maybe next time the odds will be such he will be worth a bet.

I wonder about him, if he broke slow or something, hadn't had a chance to watch a replay yet. Once he was behind Tom's d'Etat early he was never going to win, but he ran on pretty well given the pace. According to Trakus he only traveled 18 feet further, about two lengths.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...60896629395462

In this case I think the algorithms I use did a really good job of showing the difference between the two races with pace included.

I think so also.

If you tack on a couple of additional lengths for the ease with which Midnight Bisou won there's not much of gap.

I like Tom's D'Etat a lot. I think it's really neat that he's peaking at age 7. But I think he's mostly beating up on 2nd tier horses right now. IMO his reputation (at least on Twitter) has gotten ahead of the horse. It's a bit problematical that there aren't many really good horses around now to know for sure. However, I think you could easily argue Improbable was better than him in the Oaklawn Mile and Improbable is not a world beater either.

There's some time for some of the 4yos to step forward (or the 3yos to develop much later). I think he's going to have to get even better to win a BC Classic. That's seems like a tough task at 7.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I thought By My Standards would have made it much closer had he not lost so much ground, probably not have won but maybe next time the odds will be such he will be worth a bet.

I agree with CJ.

I had a $50 cold exacta with By My Standards over Tom's d'Etat. I thought it was going to be a slow paced race so I was strongly against Owendale who I thought had a few good setups lately. I also thought By My Standard would have first run on Tom's D'Etat and was more likely to take a step forward. I didn't watch the replay yet, but Tom's d'Etat got out of the gate quickly. Once he had the jump on BMS, I knew the race was over.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you tack on a couple of additional lengths for the ease with which Midnight Bisou won there's not much of gap.

Did Midnight Bisou win much more easily than Tom's d'Etat?

Both got a couple of half-hearted shoulder taps and a couple of crosses down the lane until both riders peaked at the totalizator and then preceded to wrap up on their respective mounts approaching the wire.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Did Midnight Bisou win much more easily than Tom's d'Etat?

Both got a couple of half-hearted shoulder taps and a couple of crosses down the lane until both riders peaked at the totalizator and then preceded to wrap up on their respective mounts approaching the wire.

It depends who you ask. Depending on the level of fandom, she could have gone somewhere between a half a second to two hours faster.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

It depends who you ask. Depending on the level of fandom, she could have gone somewhere between a half a second to two hours faster.

I am surprised she has fans, she seems like the run of the mill good horse. I view her like I do McKinzie, good horse but nothing special.