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Old 07-28-2018, 01:58 AM   #16
thaskalos
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
Thanks Thask.

What would you think about a player seeking backers in horse racing tournaments?

Do you think there would be investors interested?

What do you think would be fair terms?
To be honest...I know very little about the scheduling, structure, and potential profitability of these "big-money" handicapping tournaments. But a player with a good "resume" shouldn't have any trouble finding a backer...and the terms are always negotiable. I will be back in Vegas in exactly a month, and, if you want...you and I might be able to come to some sort of an arrangement, in this regard. I was thinking of getting my feet wet in these tournaments...and forming an alliance with you might be the preferable solution.
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:39 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
How many do you expect to play in a year?

Are these all brick and mortar?
They are all brick and mortar. However, the PWC & BCBC can be played on line.

My schedule would probably look like this.

Pegasus World Cup (gulfstream) $12,000

Grade One Gamble (keeneland) $3000

Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (churchill) $7500

Preakness Betting Challenge (santa anita) $4500

Belmont Betting Challenge (belmont) $10,000

Santa Anita Summer Betting Challenge (santa anita) $3000

Monmouth Pick Your Prize (monmouth) $2000

Del Mar Summer (del mar) $8000

The Big One (laurel) $7500

Del Mar Fall (del mar) $4500

Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (churchill) $7500

Total $69,500

However, keep in mind it's not unusual to buy more than one entry. Either at the start. Or if the first entry goes broke before entries close for the rest of the Tournament.
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Old 07-28-2018, 07:42 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
To be honest...I know very little about the scheduling, structure, and potential profitability of these "big-money" handicapping tournaments. But a player with a good "resume" shouldn't have any trouble finding a backer...and the terms are always negotiable. I will be back in Vegas in exactly a month, and, if you want...you and I might be able to come to some sort of an arrangement, in this regard. I was thinking of getting my feet wet in these tournaments...and forming an alliance with you might be the preferable solution.
All that and you get a well deserved steak dinner.
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Old 07-30-2018, 10:56 PM   #19
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I was playing 1-2 No Limit today at the Red Rock.

I think I played the hand correctly and just got unlucky but you tell me.

Start of the hand I had about $495.00

I was the big blind.

The two who ended up playing after the flop were a guy with $67.00 two seats to my left and the small blind who had about $425.00

5 way limped pot. I saw a flop with 2-5 off suit.

The flop comes A-3-4 two spades.

The small blind acts first and bets $18.00. While I'm thinking of what to do with my straight the guy to the left of me acts out of turn and puts his $67.00 all in.

I surmise the dealer can't answer the question I have so I call the floor and ask what plays or plays I can make that will force him to leave his $67.00 in the pot. I'm told that the only play I can make is to flat call the $18.00. So that's what I do.

After a short bit of thought the small blind calls the $67.00.

I shove for $477.00

The small blind thinks about it for 3 minutes or so and calls.

He has J-7 of spades

The 9 of spades comes on the turn and I lose.

Correct me if I'm wrong but his call was really bad for two reasons. One, we was only getting about 7/5 on his money.

Further compounded by the fact I don't think he ever considered that I might have better spades. And perhaps toughest to deal with is. After the question I asked the floor the small blind dude should have anticipated I was likely to shove based on the way I formed the question.

I know I was only about a 2-1 favorite so I'm not crying that I lost to a huge suck out.

What I hate is I think I'm correct in saying that his call was HORRIBLE

What say you guys?
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Old 07-30-2018, 11:13 PM   #20
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after an extended hiatus i finally kicked off my gambling season the other day with a trip to the charles town races and slots in wild and wonderful west virginia!

the old 3/6 game isn't running.... not even a list.... so i jump onto the 1/2 no limit list and within fifteen minutes a new game is called.

there are some questionable players in this one. a guy beside me is playing every hand. he quickly taps and two players (beavis and butthead in seats five and six) pick up where he leaves off.

some things never change as i lose with KK.

i also drop several hands with 66.

one hand i lose an extra ten dollars thanks to the brilliant play of beavis.

me (66) and a couple other players have limped and beavis limps in the small blind. butthead raises the big blind to $10 and we all call the extra $8 until the action gets back to beavis who, i guess anticipating that butthead would raise the big blind , now raises to $20! butthead just calls, the rest of us call, and no six hits the board.

i'm not sure if beavis and butthead are kicking each other under the table or what exactly is going on? in a few hours beavis loses $600; most of it to butthead.

eventually i rally to win $15 and raise my record to 1-0 on the year. over at live racing i pull in another $6. but after spending $17 for a pregame haircut and $5 for a daily racing program i depart charles town with a dollar less than i arrived with.

at least i'm rounding again though.

game +15 (1/2 nl)
year +15 (1-0)
At least the Harpers Ferry cop didn’t clip you $200 for speeding on the way out........my only ticket in 30 yrs......

Poker, social clubs are popping up in Houston. $10 admission, $15 an hour to rent a chair. BYOB too. Bottled water is $5

https://www.click2houston.com/video/...oak-poker-club
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Old 07-31-2018, 12:13 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I was playing 1-2 No Limit today at the Red Rock.

I think I played the hand correctly and just got unlucky but you tell me.

Start of the hand I had about $495.00

I was the big blind.

The two who ended up playing after the flop were a guy with $67.00 two seats to my left and the small blind who had about $425.00

5 way limped pot. I saw a flop with 2-5 off suit.

The flop comes A-3-4 two spades.

The small blind acts first and bets $18.00. While I'm thinking of what to do with my straight the guy to the left of me acts out of turn and puts his $67.00 all in.

I surmise the dealer can't answer the question I have so I call the floor and ask what plays or plays I can make that will force him to leave his $67.00 in the pot. I'm told that the only play I can make is to flat call the $18.00. So that's what I do.

After a short bit of thought the small blind calls the $67.00.

I shove for $477.00

The small blind thinks about it for 3 minutes or so and calls.

He has J-7 of spades

The 9 of spades comes on the turn and I lose.

Correct me if I'm wrong but his call was really bad for two reasons. One, we was only getting about 7/5 on his money.

Further compounded by the fact I don't think he ever considered that I might have better spades. And perhaps toughest to deal with is. After the question I asked the floor the small blind dude should have anticipated I was likely to shove based on the way I formed the question.

I know I was only about a 2-1 favorite so I'm not crying that I lost to a huge suck out.

What I hate is I think I'm correct in saying that his call was HORRIBLE

What say you guys?
The way you are describing the hand, he is getting more than 8/5 for his money (585 / 338). He will beat you 37 % (note that the pot is protected that adds more complexity to the decision) so he needs 1.7 -1 to call meaning that at the flop he has enough pot odds to call you.
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Old 07-31-2018, 12:47 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I was playing 1-2 No Limit today at the Red Rock.

I think I played the hand correctly and just got unlucky but you tell me.

Start of the hand I had about $495.00

I was the big blind.

The two who ended up playing after the flop were a guy with $67.00 two seats to my left and the small blind who had about $425.00

5 way limped pot. I saw a flop with 2-5 off suit.

The flop comes A-3-4 two spades.

The small blind acts first and bets $18.00. While I'm thinking of what to do with my straight the guy to the left of me acts out of turn and puts his $67.00 all in.

I surmise the dealer can't answer the question I have so I call the floor and ask what plays or plays I can make that will force him to leave his $67.00 in the pot. I'm told that the only play I can make is to flat call the $18.00. So that's what I do.

After a short bit of thought the small blind calls the $67.00.

I shove for $477.00

The small blind thinks about it for 3 minutes or so and calls.

He has J-7 of spades

The 9 of spades comes on the turn and I lose.

Correct me if I'm wrong but his call was really bad for two reasons. One, we was only getting about 7/5 on his money.

Further compounded by the fact I don't think he ever considered that I might have better spades. And perhaps toughest to deal with is. After the question I asked the floor the small blind dude should have anticipated I was likely to shove based on the way I formed the question.

I know I was only about a 2-1 favorite so I'm not crying that I lost to a huge suck out.

What I hate is I think I'm correct in saying that his call was HORRIBLE

What say you guys?

I think your math is pretty much spot on as well as your thinking that his calling your shove was a BAD move.


I used an on-line poker calculator, and gave the third player pocket Aces. Post flop the odds for you were .379 and the eventual winner .261 (2.83 to 1). His shove of $358 into a pot of $510 shows he is only getting about 1.42 to 1 odds, or about 1/2 the minimum required mathematically in order to consider making a call. Yup, definitely a very bad call.


There is of course "good" news and "bad" news.


The good news is that if this is a regular behavior with this player, someone is going to benefit from it in the future.


The bad news is that when a similar opportunity occurs again in our current game, we have been dealt hands like 27o and 49o and have long-since tossed them in.
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Old 07-31-2018, 02:15 AM   #23
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The way you are describing the hand, he is getting more than 8/5 for his money (585 / 338). He will beat you 37 % (note that the pot is protected that adds more complexity to the decision) so he needs 1.7 -1 to call meaning that at the flop he has enough pot odds to call you.
I think my initial response and your response both contain errors. And, it would seem to be a bit complicated given that it is a 3-way pot with 1 player all-in.

I failed to consider that Vic and the villain have a side pot, and I agree that the villains chances are 37% in that one. And although minor, I also neglected the limpers/blinds who ended up folding.

Please note that before going any further, Vic starts the hand with $70 more than the villain.

The villain's all-in call of Vic was for 425 - 67 (calling the all-in of the first player) = 358.

Against Vic in the side pot, the villain is risking 358 to win Vic's 358. (The other 67 Vic put in went to the main pot where he has an approximate chance of winning 3-way of .379 and the villain's chance is .261).

So against Vic, he needs to win 50% of the time where his estimated chances are 37%. Not Good! (In hindsight), although I imagine only a tiny microscopic number of poker players would even be able to arrive at a close approximation of their required odds of calling while while trying to do in in real time and perhaps eventually having clock called.


...
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Old 07-31-2018, 07:04 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Track Collector View Post
I think my initial response and your response both contain errors. And, it would seem to be a bit complicated given that it is a 3-way pot with 1 player all-in.

I failed to consider that Vic and the villain have a side pot, and I agree that the villains chances are 37% in that one. And although minor, I also neglected the limpers/blinds who ended up folding.

Please note that before going any further, Vic starts the hand with $70 more than the villain.

The villain's all-in call of Vic was for 425 - 67 (calling the all-in of the first player) = 358.

Against Vic in the side pot, the villain is risking 358 to win Vic's 358. (The other 67 Vic put in went to the main pot where he has an approximate chance of winning 3-way of .379 and the villain's chance is .261).

So against Vic, he needs to win 50% of the time where his estimated chances are 37%. Not Good! (In hindsight), although I imagine only a tiny microscopic number of poker players would even be able to arrive at a close approximation of their required odds of calling while while trying to do in in real time and perhaps eventually having clock called.


...
I'm a strong believer in table talk which in this case was legal since even though there were 3 people the banter couldn't influence the $67.00 guy.

I should have engaged him conversation and found a way to let him know I might have bigger spades as well. I'm convinced he never even considered that.

Believe me. Even though I knew I was well ahead I wanted him to fold. I was happy winning what was already out there with a hand I couldn't improve.

IMO his call was VERY STUPID but not that surprising at this level of play.

Again, not crying, I'm a big boy.

Reminds me of the reason why I'm not really cut out to play poker for big $$$'s.

I have a tough time reconciling doing everything correctly and still losing quite often just because of the math.
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Old 07-31-2018, 09:28 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I'm a strong believer in table talk which in this case was legal since even though there were 3 people the banter couldn't influence the $67.00 guy.

I should have engaged him conversation and found a way to let him know I might have bigger spades as well. I'm convinced he never even considered that.

Believe me. Even though I knew I was well ahead I wanted him to fold. I was happy winning what was already out there with a hand I couldn't improve.

IMO his call was VERY STUPID but not that surprising at this level of play.

Again, not crying, I'm a big boy.

Reminds me of the reason why I'm not really cut out to play poker for big $$$'s.

I have a tough time reconciling doing everything correctly and still losing quite often just because of the math.
Stick with it, and you'll get used to it...as I did. And you'll find that your newly-found "courage" will serve you well in horse-betting too.

It helps enormously if the gambler gets his start in poker first...IMO. That way...he realizes from the beginning that the player's "control" over the situation ends when the money leaves his hands. Once the money gets put in play...the control is relinquished to the hands of the gambling gods...and there is nothing more that the player can do.

The horseplayer loses a race, and returns to the past performances to see what he missed about the winner...and why he lost the bet. The poker player, on the other hand, knows from the start that the money is often lost even when the hand is played perfectly. It sometimes takes the horseplayer a LIFETIME to learn this obvious lesson.
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Old 07-31-2018, 09:44 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I'm a strong believer in table talk which in this case was legal since even though there were 3 people the banter couldn't influence the $67.00 guy.

I should have engaged him conversation and found a way to let him know I might have bigger spades as well. I'm convinced he never even considered that.

Believe me. Even though I knew I was well ahead I wanted him to fold. I was happy winning what was already out there with a hand I couldn't improve.

IMO his call was VERY STUPID but not that surprising at this level of play.

Again, not crying, I'm a big boy.

Reminds me of the reason why I'm not really cut out to play poker for big $$$'s.

I have a tough time reconciling doing everything correctly and still losing quite often just because of the math.
Not sure if you remember me, but you were kind enough to get me complimentary passes for each day on my 4-day visit to Hollywood Park in late 2013. I needed this trip to add Hollywood Park to my visit list, as they closed for good just a few weeks later. Somewhere on an old laptop I have a nice picture of you in the booth calling a race. Back then Texas Holdem was completely off my radar.

As to doing the math, I have to confess that despite my current level of success, I need more off-the-table study.

Best wishes in your poker journey!
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:16 PM   #27
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Not sure if you remember me, but you were kind enough to get me complimentary passes for each day on my 4-day visit to Hollywood Park in late 2013. I needed this trip to add Hollywood Park to my visit list, as they closed for good just a few weeks later. Somewhere on an old laptop I have a nice picture of you in the booth calling a race. Back then Texas Holdem was completely off my radar.

As to doing the math, I have to confess that despite my current level of success, I need more off-the-table study.

Best wishes in your poker journey!
Sure I remember you.

Glad you got to see Hollywood before we closed.

I'm not bitter about the closing. C'est La Vie uke:
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Old 08-01-2018, 09:17 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Stick with it, and you'll get used to it...as I did. And you'll find that your newly-found "courage" will serve you well in horse-betting too.

It helps enormously if the gambler gets his start in poker first...IMO. That way...he realizes from the beginning that the player's "control" over the situation ends when the money leaves his hands. Once the money gets put in play...the control is relinquished to the hands of the gambling gods...and there is nothing more that the player can do.

The horseplayer loses a race, and returns to the past performances to see what he missed about the winner...and why he lost the bet. The poker player, on the other hand, knows from the start that the money is often lost even when the hand is played perfectly. It sometimes takes the horseplayer a LIFETIME to learn this obvious lesson.
SHARP POST
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Old 08-03-2018, 06:45 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
I was playing 1-2 No Limit today at the Red Rock.

I think I played the hand correctly and just got unlucky but you tell me.

Start of the hand I had about $495.00

I was the big blind.

The two who ended up playing after the flop were a guy with $67.00 two seats to my left and the small blind who had about $425.00

5 way limped pot. I saw a flop with 2-5 off suit.

The flop comes A-3-4 two spades.

The small blind acts first and bets $18.00. While I'm thinking of what to do with my straight the guy to the left of me acts out of turn and puts his $67.00 all in.

I surmise the dealer can't answer the question I have so I call the floor and ask what plays or plays I can make that will force him to leave his $67.00 in the pot. I'm told that the only play I can make is to flat call the $18.00. So that's what I do.

After a short bit of thought the small blind calls the $67.00.

I shove for $477.00

The small blind thinks about it for 3 minutes or so and calls.

He has J-7 of spades

The 9 of spades comes on the turn and I lose.

Correct me if I'm wrong but his call was really bad for two reasons. One, we was only getting about 7/5 on his money.

Further compounded by the fact I don't think he ever considered that I might have better spades. And perhaps toughest to deal with is. After the question I asked the floor the small blind dude should have anticipated I was likely to shove based on the way I formed the question.

I know I was only about a 2-1 favorite so I'm not crying that I lost to a huge suck out.

What I hate is I think I'm correct in saying that his call was HORRIBLE

What say you guys?
Well, presumably he doesn't think his J and 7 are live outs. So he is, at best, drawing to 9 outs twice. If you have 2 pair or a set (both possible checking your option from the big blind), he has less equity in the pot. There's $113 in the pot. He is putting $405 into that pot-- a huge overbet-- to try to win $923. So he is getting 1.27 to 1 on his money.

A 9 out flush draw, with 2 cards to come, is about 38 percent to get there. Which means he needs to get at least 1.58 to 1 to justify it on pot equity.

And that, bear in mind, is before we factor in the fact that either of his opponents might have one of the following-- (1) 2 pair, reducing his draw to 8 outs, (2) a set, effectively reducing his draw to about 7.3 outs, (3) one of the three higher flush draws, making his draw dead, or (4) a straight with a redraw to a straight flush, reducing his draw by 0.1 or 0.2 outs. All of which reduce the EV of his hand.

Bottom line, that is an awful call by a player with extreme problems in the math deparatment. You want to play against him.
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Old 08-03-2018, 06:49 PM   #30
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I imagine only a tiny microscopic number of poker players would even be able to arrive at a close approximation of their required odds of calling while while trying to do in in real time and perhaps eventually having clock called.
If this is true then there are a whole bunch of people who shouldn't be playing any form of poker. This is a relatively easy math problem and should lead to a pretty clear fold. And there are shortcuts you can take (it isn't horrible to just treat a 9 out draw as 40 percent, an 8 out draw is 35 percent, and a 4 out draw as 20 percent, and half of those on a river decision- that's not perfect, but it is good enough for most calculations).

The difficult problems involve ranges. I.e., let's say that the pot was offering ostensibly sufficient odds for an 8 out draw in Vic's hand; now, you have to figure out what percentage of each player's range is higher flush draws. That's the fun part.
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