Starting to see Baffert as a villain?

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by cj

I mean it is painfully obvious Lasix makes horses run faster and since speed figures for the races are largely based on races where horses are using Lasix, they are going to come back slower. The jumps next year will be bigger than the usual "improving 3yo" jumps. It will be important to factor that in when using the projection method to make numbers.

I'm not saying Lasix is good or bad, by the way. It is just a fact that it makes horses run faster races.

I have "relaxed" my position on lasix since I first started posting here. I believe it improves horses. I also believe it helps them, and prevents the damage that happens from bleeding.

That said, I feel what class is doing, and tracking non-lasix races, is something that every handicapper should be doing. The game is going to change because of this. I hope I can take advantage of that.

[Tom]

CJ makes a great point about the improvement going forward.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

The jumps next year will be bigger than the usual "improving 3yo" jumps. It will be important to factor that in when using the projection method to make numbers.

I'm not saying Lasix is good or bad, by the way. It is just a fact that it makes horses run faster races.

This is an excellent point, but couldn't you make it to me privately.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is an excellent point, but couldn't you make it to me privately.

This revelation just cut your potential bets from 4 a year down to 3.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is an excellent point, but couldn't you make it to me privately.

I think there are like 4 people that will pay attention to something like this.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by castaway01

This revelation just cut your potential bets from 4 a year down to 3.

The way I bet, every single extra bet counts.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by cj

I mean it is painfully obvious Lasix makes horses run faster and since speed figures for the races are largely based on races where horses are using Lasix, they are going to come back slower. The jumps next year will be bigger than the usual "improving 3yo" jumps. It will be important to factor that in when using the projection method to make numbers.

I'm not saying Lasix is good or bad, by the way. It is just a fact that it makes horses run faster races.

When did the no lasix for 2yos go into effect, this year?I've got to flag my db. thx

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

When did the no lasix for 2yos go into effect, this year?I've got to flag my db. thx

Yes, it isn't everywhere but it is at most of the bigger tracks.

Pretty easy to run a query and see which allow 2yos to run on Lasix.

[MJC922]

Nice to see someone ambush Bob's usual tag team move today.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by MJC922

Nice to see someone ambush Bob's usual tag team move today.

When Thousand Words quarter-horsed to the lead, and slowed it down, and Authentic cruised up to take over,

I didn't anticipate Swiss Skydiver/Robby Albarado's move either... I was counting up exotics...

Good thing Geroux didn't happen to block the .

Great ride/move or not, it looked like a fairly fast race.
may have not run his best lifetime performance, but he ran well and got a good setup.

Swiss Skydiver buried him in a fair duel.

[Spalding No!]

Both major 2yo stakes at Keeneland this year registered BSFs higher than last year.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Both major 2yo stakes at Keeneland this year registered BSFs higher than last year.

IMO, a better way to look at stakes might be is to look at the figures this year compared to the PAR for the class or race at the same time of year.

If a certain stake typically earns mid 90s and it got an 89 this year, it's slow even if last year it got an 85 and if it earns a 97 it's fast even if last year some star ran a 99. You could also do by Grade and time of year.

I didn't look at stakes yet because the samples are very small.

I already checked MSW 2yos this year at all major tracks broken down by time of year compared to the PAR for that track at that time of year. They were mostly down. That verified my impression that I was seeing a lot of slow 2yo races, especially it seemed at Eliis Park for some strange reason.

Also, my "guess" as to part of the reason was that some of the horses may have experienced training delays related to Covid. That simply means those horses have more talent than they showed first out and will catch up up later as they race. So even though my data for the 2nd and 3rd quarter shows they were a little slower, they could be narrowing the gap in the 4th quarter now.

I'm not sure what the impact of no Lasix is, but imo it can't be helping.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, a better way to look at stakes might be is to look at the figures this year compared to the PAR for the class or race at the same time of year.

If a certain stake typically earns mid 90s and it got an 89 this year, it's slow even if last year it got an 85 and if it earns a 97 it's fast even if last year some star ran 99. You could also do by Grade and time of year.

I didn't look at stakes yet because the samples are very small there could be a few very good horses within a generally slower group.

I already checked MSW 2yos this year at all major tracks broken down by time of year compared to the PAR for that track at that time of year. They were mostly down. That verified my impression that I was seeing a lot of slow 2yo races, especially it seemed at Eliis Park for some strange reason.

Also, my "guess" as to part of the reason was that some of the horses may have experienced training delays related to Covid. That simply means those horses have more talent than they showed first out and will catch up up later as they race. So even though my data for the 2nd and 3rd quarter shows they were a little slower, they could be narrowing the gap in the 4th quarter now.

I'm not sure what the impact of no Lasix is, but imo it can't be helping.

If there is a long-term downward trend in quantified performance then I would hesitate to speculate that the insult is something that occurred in 2020 (COVID, no Lasix).

But I would agree with you that those things don't help.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If there is a long-term downward trend in quantified performance then I would hesitate to speculate that the insult is something that occurred in 2020 (COVID, no Lasix).

But I would agree with you that those things don't help.

I just checked the last few editions of the Alcibiades and Breeder's Futurity and they were both faster this year than the PAR in recent years, although Simply Ravishing was a pretty big winner.

[Andy Asaro]

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