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Old 07-02-2020, 02:43 PM   #1
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Which Long Shot

To profit from exotic betting requires a mix of contenders and long shots. Picking the right long shots is critical. We all know the frequency and payback is directly correlated to the odds. I believe it is necessary to consider the longest ones possible to show a profit. Unfortunately, they seldom hit the board so run outs are long and painful.

Dave Schwartz in his study "Percentages and Possibilities, 2012", analyzed 90,020 horses with a morning line 15:1 or higher. They won 3.3% of the time and lost 35% of the money bet on them to win. Of course, one must be super selective when picking horses in this category. The only way to tell if your "good ones" are really good, is to keep track of both your picks and the ones you do not pick. You will quickly learn if you have any skill in finding those with possibility.

Looking backwards, I think I may be able separate possible ones from the impossible ones. But the proof is in picking them going forward. These long shots need not necessarily win. In exactas, trifectas, and supers one of these long shots coming in to place or show can be profitable. Races with less than 7 entries before scratches will not be considered. In cases of scratches, I'll correct the ML to 120%.
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Old 07-02-2020, 02:48 PM   #2
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7/2/20

Bel 2

Maybe = PP#3
Pass = PP#4
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Old 07-02-2020, 03:15 PM   #3
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Ind 1

Pass = #2,#6
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Old 07-02-2020, 03:32 PM   #4
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BTP 5

Maybe =#6
Pass= #4,#7,#9,#11
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Old 07-02-2020, 03:54 PM   #5
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Bel 4

Pass = #4, #8
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:15 PM   #6
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Ind 3

Maybe = #7, #11
Pass = #2,#8,#10,#12
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:23 PM   #7
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BTP 7

Pass = #1
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:30 PM   #8
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Bel 5

Maybe #3
Pass #2,#4
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:37 PM   #9
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Elp 4

Maybe #3, #8
Pass #1
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:49 PM   #10
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Ind 4

Maybe #4
Pass #1, #3
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:02 PM   #11
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Bel 6

Pass #1, #5, #6
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:22 PM   #12
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Ind 5

Maybe #1
Pass #2
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:30 PM   #13
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Bel 7

Pass #1, #4
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Old 07-02-2020, 05:47 PM   #14
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Pass #5, #8
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Old 07-02-2020, 06:00 PM   #15
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Bel 8

Maybe #2
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