Stock Market Prediction

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

not only that, there were plenty of weak awful stocks that got some meat on the bone that you can now short.

the reason why this was so good today was because this really wasn't a broad based rally, every one was buying the same stocks.

How have the big selloffs been? Broad based? Or just big names getting hammered....

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?

It's a relief rally....Nowhere close to the bottom, yet....

[reckless]

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- .

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by reckless

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- .

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

For the S&P 500? That I would bet against. The Street is at $161.40 for 2018 -- assuming that's close to reality - you're implying $177.50. You won't get much growth from financials and energy will be a drag (if, huge if, oil stays around current levels). Industrials will probably grow more slowly b/c of ROW exposure and oil drag. I'll take the under on this one. We'll revisit at the end of 2019.

Good luck to KO in 2019.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

How have the big selloffs been? Broad based? Or just big names getting hammered....

SPY (market-cap wgt'd S&P 500 ETF, same as the index construction) vs RSP (equal wgt'd S&P 500 ETF). The former was up 5.05% and the latter up 4.52%. Given the magnitude of the move, that doesn't seem like a big divergence.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by reckless

Dow up 1086.25 today.

When the market was dropping no one said it's a phony drop because volume wasn't real strong. But when the Dow jumps up, we get warnings that it won't last due to low volume or lack of breadth.

Rates aren't going to rise much in 2019, there won't be a recession, there won't be any inflation, any Trade War will be 'won' by the USA, sales and earnings will rise double digits, Trump will not get arrested or impeached, oil prices will moderate or fall, the tax cuts will get really going, the only thing and the SMARTEST thing to do is invest all your racetrack winnings in the market for a robust 2019 and beyond gain.

Listen to reckless ... he's the only one on here who looks out with your best interests in mind, and the greatest investing mind in the world --- .

Good luck to everyone and a belated Merry Christmas to all.

Glad to know you reckless, although I'd be careful saying you're the best investing mind.

Seriously though, I agree with everything you wrote-- other than taking racetrack winnings and betting it on Wall Street.

Horseplayers are not going to play or invest in the Markets. If they did they wouldn't be horseplayers anymore, right?

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

Glad to know you reckless, although I'd be careful saying you're the best investing mind. Seriously though, I agree with everything you wrote-- other than taking racetrack winnings and betting it on Wall Street.

Horseplayers are not going to play or invest in the Markets. If they did they wouldn't be horseplayers anymore, right?

I said it but I probably do not mean it … which is why I included these emoji thingys at the end of that sentence --

I would have thought that a smart guy like you would have picked up on that, my self-deprecating humor, that is.

I am sure you have a better investing mind then I do -- as does Replay Randall, Saratoga Mike, Sammy the Sage, lambo, and plenty of others on here. I learn from each and every one, Buckeye.

Success skills in both horse racing gambling and stock market investing are tied at the hip. I have been playing the races for 35 years now and have been investing in the stock market for as long as that.

[Buckeye]

All I know about the Stock Market was gleaned watching Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.

I have shaped my own mind when it comes to the horses, and purposely rejected -whenever possible- conventional thinking.

As you said, they are tied at the hip. More than you know.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Countertrend rally or the bottom!?

the main trend is down now, as i type this i see the futures are down big, i wish i went to bed with some s+p puts but i didn't, but i am loaded up short GE

[Saratoga_Mike]

DB chart is horrible -- levered 22x vs GS and JPM at roughly 9x to 10x --what could go wrong?!

[Saratoga_Mike]

Too bearish????

"AAII Sentiment Survey (comments from 12/26/18 survey--numbers below)...
Pessimism is above 50% for the first time since 2013, while neutral sentiment is at an eight-year low. Both readings are highly unusual. "

Survey Results for Week Ending 12/26/2018
HISTORICAL AVERAGE BULLISH: 38.5%
NOW BULLISH
31.5% +6.7 from last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE NEUTRAL: 31.0%
NOW NEUTRAL
18.2% -9.7 from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE BEARISH: 30.5%
NOW BEARISH
50.3% +3.0 from
last week

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey

[Saratoga_Mike]

Chicago PMI prints around 65, very impressive in absolute and relative to lousy Richmond Fed # a few days ago. Not sure if the market wants positive or negative news at this point, the former could embolden the Fed.

[lamboguy]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/423...ick-2019?ifp=0


the only thing is that this is my top pick for shorting! one of us is completely wrong.

i saw an add today for M-Tailor. this is a company that measures your waste, lengths and fits for pants over the phone. this is a disruptive technology. its only a matter of time that you will be able to stay at home and buy your $5000 Brianna suits. this is going to put a dent into retail space, which has already been pretty dented in the last 20 years.

[lamboguy]

covered GE 7.48. will revisit at some point. market looks like there is more upside for now, don't want to be infront of it.