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Old 10-02-2016, 01:28 AM   #1
ReplayRandall
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Stock Market Prediction

In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312
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Old 10-02-2016, 05:40 AM   #2
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i just invested in 2 gold mining stocks and plan to stay in them whether the market goes up or tanks. if these 2 depreciate by 20% i am out and will look for a new entry. i like MUX McEwen Nining and NGD New Gold. both stocks have recently received a haircut. i am looking for triples or more in these 2 within 15 months.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:12 AM   #3
forced89
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Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:14 AM   #4
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bubble is going to burst really soon. we desperately need another great depression to help right the ship.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:25 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by forced89
Somewhat where I am too. The only difference is that I own gold and silver bullion coins instead of gold mining stocks. My favorite is the $1 Silver Mexican Libertad. I only have one stock left, EPM which is a small oil company with a bunch of cash in the bank.
i like US eagles, i can buy them for about $2 over spot. i get the sealed green monster boxes from the mint.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:28 AM   #6
Tor Ekman
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I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:00 PM   #7
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I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:01 PM   #8
barn32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312
I predict just the opposite. I guess we'll find out who's right.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:11 PM   #9
Saratoga_Mike
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RR - are you a technician, fundamentalist or some combo thereof? Please flush out your call more. Thanks.
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Old 10-02-2016, 01:14 PM   #10
pandy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tor Ekman
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.
That sounds like a good idea. Better to be safe than sorry.
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Old 10-02-2016, 02:08 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tor Ekman
I've been 100% all-in stock funds and REIT fund with my 401K money and have had a great run, but retirement is now looming within 5-7 years and I'd hate myself if I had to try to make up for a 40-50% market correction within that short span and/or having to work beyond 65, so I'm taking 80% of my chips off the table and moving to a mix of bonds funds with a bit in precious metals/mining fund.
Very nice
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Old 10-02-2016, 02:50 PM   #12
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I am normally 100% invested in stocks other than money I need for living and emergencies. The only time I have extra cash is if I recently recently sold something or accumulated some savings and didn't have any new good investment ideas yet. I have even been on margin up to about 30%. This bullish strategy goes all the way back to the late 80s with only a few more conservative stances.

Right now 100% of my IRA and 401K funds are in cash except for a couple of small positions in gold mines and a physical gold/silver security. My non retirement account has 1 stock and the rest in cash and the same gold mines.

I'm a patient man. I invest for the very long term. I am more than willing to miss the top to avoid the debacle I anticipate. The timing is just a matter of how much the Fed and other central banks are willing to print, whether they are willing to take rates even more negative, and whether they are going to eventually buy stocks directly like they are in some places.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:30 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
In 2014, I made a prediction about the stock market, and for 15 days, it sank like a Japanese pearl diver. But then the Fed intervened, opening the money spigots to the major corp giants as they feverishly bought back their own stocks, the Fed literally printing trillions overnight, and the market did a remarkable turnaround to actually show a profit for the month. This time, there will be no Fed money, as the spigots are dry. I will not bore you with the details, I will just give this short prediction:

I believe without a shadow of doubt that the wisest of investors know when to sell and take profit. It is better to be out of the market 6 months too soon, than to be in the market one minute too late. Therefore, I highly suggest the time to sell and get out is now, as October will be one of the worst months in the last 7 years. Come back to this thread Nov.1st and see the results of the market correction after the FED finally gives up.

As of the close on Sept.30th, S&P: 2168....Dow:18,308....Nasdaq:5312
I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:40 PM   #14
whodoyoulike
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
I know there is lots of doom and gloom out there but what is the reason for all this, besides panic?

How is it so certain that the stock market is going to drop 40-50 per cent? What would cause the market to drop so much, so soon?

Plus, some of these small under capitalized gold and silver mining stocks that have been mentioned as some sort of hedge will get absolutely destroyed if the Dow or S & P 500 takes a 40-50 cent hit.

If's OK if one is worried, I get it. Then take some off the table. It's your money to preserve and grow to use for a future date. But I don't see any reason for a 50 percent correction at this time, imo.
I think the trigger will be a liquidity crisis which has caused so many previous panics if not all of them. Excluding war.

Remember in finance it's always about the CASH just as in horse racing it's all about the PACE.

Last edited by whodoyoulike; 10-02-2016 at 04:45 PM.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:43 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist
I like the call. You will be right. It's just a matter of when.
If you don't have time parameters, nearly every prediction will be right.

Dow 36,000 being correct doesn't rule out RR also being right if you allow enough time.

To his credit, RR put a time parameter on his prediction.
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