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Old 09-08-2020, 02:12 PM   #121
Handiman
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Jeff is one of the Good guys in this industry. I use his Jcapper files exclusively. They have a lot of stuff not available in other data files.

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Old 09-13-2020, 08:56 PM   #122
lefty359
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I've never been a database player, but I'm willing to be convin
ced, so would like to know how you Jcapper daabase players are doing.
Also, if you play ou of the box, so to speak, how are YOU doing?


Thanks in advance.
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Old 09-14-2020, 03:24 PM   #123
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I have been a JCapper user for something like 10 years now, and am relatively satisfied. I suspect any of the shortcomings are on MY ability to use the TOOL.

On a topic mentioned earlier in this thread, the subject of back data was mentioned. I can certainly understand why one might want to purchase this to see how certain factors performed and whether their ROI values improved or deteriorated over time, prior to moving forward with specific software.

It was mentioned that at that time, back data for 6 months or more could be purchased for a 10% discount. IMO the magnitude of this discount, particularly if it involved something like a minimum of 2 years of back data, should be MUCH greater. This might sound draconian, but perhaps something like 50% would be more appropriate and fair, and equally important, might encourage more folks to purchase back data. One might say that previous clients paid FULL price, so why should others be allowed to purchase the very same data for something like only 10% less? On the surface this sounds very reasonable, but it significantly underestimates the one huge benefit of those who paid FULL price, and that is that they could USE IT IN REAL TIME to make wagers in which they could potentially profit from. Back data can point one in the right direction going forward, but one still has to purchase data at full price in order to place future wagers.
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Old 09-14-2020, 04:14 PM   #124
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Collector View Post
I have been a JCapper user for something like 10 years now, and am relatively satisfied. I suspect any of the shortcomings are on MY ability to use the TOOL.

On a topic mentioned earlier in this thread, the subject of back data was mentioned. I can certainly understand why one might want to purchase this to see how certain factors performed and whether their ROI values improved or deteriorated over time, prior to moving forward with specific software.

It was mentioned that at that time, back data for 6 months or more could be purchased for a 10% discount. IMO the magnitude of this discount, particularly if it involved something like a minimum of 2 years of back data, should be MUCH greater. This might sound draconian, but perhaps something like 50% would be more appropriate and fair, and equally important, might encourage more folks to purchase back data. One might say that previous clients paid FULL price, so why should others be allowed to purchase the very same data for something like only 10% less? On the surface this sounds very reasonable, but it significantly underestimates the one huge benefit of those who paid FULL price, and that is that they could USE IT IN REAL TIME to make wagers in which they could potentially profit from. Back data can point one in the right direction going forward, but one still has to purchase data at full price in order to place future wagers.
This reminds me of handicapping's "dark ages"...when we all had to handicap off the printed Daily Racing Form. Since this was before the wide popularity of the home computer, we had to purchase old copies of the DRF in order to do a more thorough research of the game. And the DRF would take advantage of our studious nature by charging us full price for the old and discarded copies of their product. We would pay the same price for a year-old Racing Form as we would for the next day's copy. I remember those days, and I cringe in embarrassment.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-14-2020 at 04:15 PM.
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Old 09-14-2020, 09:47 PM   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
This reminds me of handicapping's "dark ages"...when we all had to handicap off the printed Daily Racing Form. Since this was before the wide popularity of the home computer, we had to purchase old copies of the DRF in order to do a more thorough research of the game. And the DRF would take advantage of our studious nature by charging us full price for the old and discarded copies of their product. We would pay the same price for a year-old Racing Form as we would for the next day's copy. I remember those days, and I cringe in embarrassment.
I remember as a teenager having to buy my own used microfiche reader and paying for a season's worth of microfiche charts from DRF just to try to make class pars for my home track. One time I remember after a number of hours the bulb in the reader burned a hole in the bedspread. I didn't even have a desk to work on back then. Research on par times took ages and when PCs finally came in to play the data entry was all manual. Yes I guess folks could have it better than 10% off but things could certainly be much worse. It's only money.
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Old 09-14-2020, 10:55 PM   #126
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My question is, are the people with big databases actually making any money and 2nd question is it profitable to use Jcapper right out of the box with the readouts it provides.
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Old 09-15-2020, 03:39 PM   #127
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Can you make any hay using the data?

Imo, yes.

But you have to know what you are doing.

I'll give you a simple example.

Hastings Park. It's a bullring.

Historically, at the 6.5f distance, when the surface is dry, horses that make the top going into the first turn tend to get the best of it. And off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn tend to get the worst of it.

On the other hand, when the surface is wet, the way race outcomes are shaped is flipped.

Horses that make the top going into the first turn, and horses pressing a contested pace, tend to become exhausted about time they reach the midpoint on the far turn. At the same time, off the pace runners trying to loop the field on the far turn often get the best of it.

Over the past several meets, these effects are evident in the data.

Here's what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is fast for horses that are rank=1 for JCapper Early Consensus that also have an Early HDW runstyle - with the data further broken out by calendar year:

Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKF19 = 1 
      AND RUNSTYLE < 15 
      AND TRACK = 'HST' 
      AND DIST = 1430 
      AND TKCOND = 'FT'
 
      AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018# 
      AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      626.90        566.00        537.40
Bet               -542.00       -542.00       -542.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 84.90         24.00         -4.60

Wins                   74           123           158
Plays                 271           271           271
PCT                 .2731         .4539         .5830

ROI                1.1566        1.0443        0.9915
Avg Mut              8.47          4.60          3.40
Code:
By: Calendar Year

Year         P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018      -20.70     230.00     0.9100      32     115   .2783     1.0190       6.54  
2019       49.70     214.00     1.2322      30     107   .2804     1.0268       8.79  
2020       55.90      98.00     1.5704      12      49   .2449     0.8969      12.83  



Ending BankRoll:       $454.10
Starting BankRoll:     $300.00
High BankRoll:         $470.95
Low BankRoll:          $210.25
Longest Losing Streak: 13.00
Bet Percentage:        0.0175
Max Bet:               999999999.00

And this is what I have in the database at HST at 6.5f when the surface is other than fast for horses that are
JPR rank <= 3 that have an HDW runstyle other than Early - with the data further broken out by calendar year:

Code:
Data Window Settings:
Connected to: C:\JCapper\exe\JCapper2.mdb
999 Divisor  Odds Cap: None
SQL UDM Plays Report: Hide

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
      WHERE RANKJPR <= 3 
      AND NOT RUNSTYLE < 15 
      AND TRACK = 'HST' 
      AND DIST = 1430 
      AND NOT TKCOND='FT'
 
      AND [DATE] >= #04-22-2018# 
      AND [DATE] <= #09-10-2020# 
      ORDER BY [DATE], TRACK, RACE


Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
-----------------------------------------------------
Mutuel Totals      404.80        311.30        313.10
Bet               -344.00       -344.00       -344.00
-----------------------------------------------------
P/L                 60.80        -32.70        -30.90

Wins                   44            73           103
Plays                 172           172           172
PCT                 .2558         .4244         .5988

ROI                1.1767        0.9049        0.9102
Avg Mut              9.20          4.26          3.04
Code:
By: Calendar Year

Year         P/L        Bet        Roi    Wins   Plays     Pct     Impact     AvgMut
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2018       33.40     148.00     1.2257      20      74   .2703     1.0565       9.07  
2019       24.20     160.00     1.1513      20      80   .2500     0.9773       9.21  
2020        3.20      36.00     1.0889       4      18   .2222     0.8687       9.80  


Ending BankRoll:       $401.75
Starting BankRoll:     $300.00
High BankRoll:         $474.70
Low BankRoll:          $290.00
Longest Losing Streak: 11.00
Bet Percentage:        0.0175
Max Bet:               999999999.00
Imo, the best way to know what the prevailing patterns are is to make the effort - and look at the data.


-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 09-15-2020 at 03:50 PM.
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Old 09-15-2020, 07:59 PM   #128
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Thanks, Jeff.
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