Calibration Hcp-ing(Plus) on the Travers-G1-1-1/4M
----------------------------------------T/M-----Str-------AbT-------LP-----E2---(LP+E2)
Trigger Warning 30/1 ML------1.5------0--------23.3------97-------93----(190)
Wonder Gadot 5/1 ML--------0-----3.25-----24.4--------99-------72----(171)
Gronkowski 4/1 ML-----------6------¼------24.0--------98------110----(208)*
Bravazo 12/1 ML----------2-------1------24.1----------97----99-----(196)
Vino Rosso 10/1 ML---------3-----5.75----24.1---------97-----85------(182)
Meistermind 30/1 ML--------0-------0------24.2---------83-----94------(177)
King Zachary 15/1 ML-------0-------1.25----23.3-------100-----83-----(183)
Mendelssohn 12/1 ML------0----------0-----24.0-------83--------99----(182)
Good Magic 2/1 ML---------2----------0------24.1------99------103----(202)
Tenfold 8/1 ML ------------0----------0-------24.4------85------99------(184)
Catholic Boy 8/1 ML-------0----------0-----24.0T----92T-----89------(181)Turf
The
&
had gains on the Turn(T/M)
Of these with a T/M, the
also had moves in the stretch. Calibr. Hcp. says to use Final fractions to separate contenders, but I labeled it AbT because he shows examples using the 6f-4f times for consistency. I think using LP from Bris is probably a better number. To further separate them I added the (E2+ LP) to get a number that considers the early pace plus Late pace.
So here’s how our contenders stack up
Trigger Warning----1.5 T/M -------0 SM-----97LP + 93E2-----190
Gronkowki----------6.0 T/M------- 0 SM----98LP + 110E2----208*
Bravazo --------------2.0 T/M-------1 SM-----97 LP + 99E2----196
Vino Rosso--------3.0 T/M----5-3/4 SM-----97 LP + 85E2----182
Good Magic--------2.0 T/M--------0 SM-----99 LP + 103E2----202
I believe Jim Lehane said to use a 2-3 point advantage (or ⅖-⅗) as a decider on separating contenders. We only have a 2 point difference in LP over 5 contenders. So I added in the E2 and it appears that
Gronkowski comes in at 208 total points, although his last race was 77 days ago, still within the 90 day range but outside 45. He does have six workouts with 4 of them at 5f.
Good Magic comes in at 202 total points and raced 27 days ago. I used his 2 pt. LP advantage over
, although Gronk's total pts. was better.-toss up.
Using the top combined numbers on the contenders it looks like
with
and
fighting for the 4th spot. If being a dual qualifier(T/M & SM) counts for anything, then
and
might be good price plays. While
's E2 of 85 appears suspect, he shows several better E2's in prev. races. Okay, so that’s my interpretation of Calibration Handicapping on the Travers.
