Jason Kassa Handicaps the Runhappy Travers S. (BONUS: Pick-3 opinions)

[Robert Fischer]

RUNDOWN OF EACH INDIVIDUAL HORSE (w/ occasional esoteric insights):

TRIGGER WARNING - TOSS. Cheap speed. If he's hard-sent, he'll have a chance to get loose due to being disrespected more than Rodney Dangerfield in a self-deprecating punchline. No worries, he'll fold.

WONDER GADOT - Reluctantly include 2nd/3rd/4th Great story. Bad value unless you really have her as your winner. She enters the stretch as game as any colt. Odd comparison, but reminds me of the great BARBARO with her charge from the top of the stretch. If she has a weakness, it is in regards to carrying that level of aggression through the finish line in a competitive situation. There is also a class question. The class issue with WONDER GADOT pertains to the increased stress she will be under. She's in here to maker her own luck, and will be making a premature wide move and trying to duel or get the jump on GOOD MAGIC. This extra energy is going to test her, and not only is GOOD MAGIC a tough duel, there will be some rivals charging late with efficiently timed moves. I think she needs to be reluctantly included 2nd and especially 3rd/4th on coverage tickets.

GRONKOWSKI - RELUCTANTLY INCLUDE/TOSS. Everything about him shouts underlay. Last-time-was-the-time. I had him for 2nd in my BELMONT STAKES writeup. At that time, the vast majority of the experts denounced him as a joke. 'Horse-for-course can apply to both a track or surface preference, or also to a distance and race-flow preference. GRONKOWSKI had an absolute DREAM trip in the BELMONT STAKES. He displayed a potential flaw with his sluggish break from the gate, but JOSE ORTIZ did his best CALVIN BOREL impression, and reached contention as the field bunched up and then out-finished a premature Vino Rosso move and a wide HOFBURG. Is he trained by a top-5 trainer in CHAD BROWN?? Yes. Is he a handsome horse? Yes! But this is the underlay that you leverage value by excluding.

BRAVAZO - What he lacks in talent he makes up for in heart. No reason he can't finish 4th or 5th. He's not a 'key' but he's a decent barometer to look back and measure the race quality against.

VINO ROSSO - He's a KEY. 'Key' him mostly 3rd/4th in superfectas with a lighter use in 2nd. What an awful race he ran last time in the JIM DANDY. The race was forward-favoring, and run @ the 9F distance @ SARATOGA, so it was very much against VINO ROSSO. Even so, it was awful. Finished OK and has worked twice since. VINO ROSSO was 2nd best in the BELMONT STAKES. He made a premature move vs. JUSTIFY and did too much running in a race that was made for a horse like GRONKOWSKI to ease into. Credit their competitiveness for trying to win, but I certainly had more $ on him 2nd and 3rd, than I did for the 4th he eventually ended up in after GRONK and HOFBURG capitalized on better trips.

MEISTERMIND - TOSS. Could use him 4th if you go coverage-crazy. Would have to run a dramatically improved race to hit the board. Not for me.

KING ZACHARY - INCLUDE this live Long Shot 2nd/3rd/4th. He found trouble and was shuffled back in both the WOOD MEMORIAL, and the INDIANA DERBY. He's shown enough in other races to respect as a possible 2nd-tier contender, and will be a good price.

MENDELSSOHN - Include MENDELSSOHN underneath 2nd/3rd/4th. He was a terrible play in the KENTUCKY DERBY, as well as in the DWYER(even before the FIRENZE FIRE betting-coup). If used on the pace he'll finish near the tail of the field. If he sits mid-pack on the rail and makes a run, it's possible that he could hit the board, and he should be a big price. If the price is silly (<10/1), exclude from your leaner tickets.

GOOD MAGIC - Single on top. Your hope of beating him would be an off night or a foul. HUGE performance in the KENTUCKY DERBY while 2nd best to JUSTIFY. 2ND-best in the PREAKNESS (again, with the JUSTIFY) while finishing 4th. Ran his race in the HASKELL making it look too easy. He figures to get a nice forwardly placed trip outside of cheap speed TRIGGER WARNING.

TENFOLD - Have to include him 2nd/3rd/4th. His tendency to lug out, and falter late has to make you wary. Battle-tested, he may flourish in a pack at the top of the stretch and earn a board spot.

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QUICK PICK-3 PREVIEW

RACE9 FOREGO STAKES. A=8,3. B=1
CITY OF LIGHT will be a heavy favorite and is the likely winner. WHITMORE is the value include. WHITMORE will be surprisingly forwardly placed today and thus have an advantage over his rival LIMOUSINE LIBERAL. Those are my 2 'A's. If you love a long shot in the TRAVERS use all 3 or more.

RACE10 THE SWORD DANCER. A=7,10. B=3. C=6,9
CHANNEL MAKER is the perhaps the best in here after a HUGE BOWLING GREEN performance, but this is a complex race. SADLERS JOY ran fine in the BOWLING GREEN, and was perhaps best (or 2nd best to ROBERT BRUCE if you want to get hardcore) in the MANHATTAN with a premature move. Those are my two A+s. I fear the FUNTASTIC as a 'B' and this field could be vulnerable to a front-runner. Kind of hard to tell how good he is and how much vs GLORIOUS EMPIRE will affect each other. My 'Cs' are the BIGGER PICTURE(essentially the same ticket as the SPRING QUALITY, but twice the value), and the REVVED UP at a price 1st-time-Abreu.




example tickets:

TRAVERS SINGLE RACE VERTICAL EXOTICS (Superfecta)

LEAN KEYS 1ST/3RD
$1 SU 9GM
$1 SU 2, 7, 8, 10
$1 SU 5VR
$1 SU 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 =$20 (reluctant inclusion of GRONK)

LEAN KEYS 1ST/4TH
$1 SU 9GM
$1 SU 2, 7, 8, 10
$1 SU 2, 7, 8, 10
$1 SU 5VR = $12

LEAN KEYS 1ST/2ND
$0.50 SU 9GM
$0.50 SU 5VR (ONLY 50cents on VR 2ND)
$0.50 SU 2, 7, 8, 10
$0.50 SU 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 10 =$10

KING ZACHARY VINO ROSSO DOUBLE-KEY 1ST/2ND
$0.10 SU 9
$0.10 SU 5, 7
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
Wager Total $8.40

KING ZACHARY VINO ROSSO DOUBLE-KEY 1ST/3RD
$0.10 SU 9
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.10 SU 5, 7
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
Wager Total $8.40

KING ZACHARY VINO ROSSO DOUBLE-KEY 1ST/4TH
$0.10 SU 9
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
$0.10 SU 5, 7
Wager Total $8.40




GOOD LUCK, enjoy a nice day of racing.

[Robert Fischer]

CATHOLIC BOY - TOSS. Can include 3rd/4th on coverage-oriented tickets. I've never been impressed by this horse. He always seems to take money because of a popular name. His form is pretty'd-up with back-to-back graded wins. He's been with the race-flow several times. I dislike him so much that I left him off the above post. . Castellano can get him 4th or something if he is very patient and closes late. His recent success near the pace works against him. This isn't the Sam F. Davis chasing a slow pace.

[Hapman]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

CATHOLIC BOY - TOSS. Can include 3rd/4th on coverage-oriented tickets. I've never been impressed by this horse. He always seems to take money because of a popular name. His form is pretty'd-up with back-to-back graded wins. He's been with the race-flow several times. I dislike him so much that I left him off the above post. . Castellano can get him 4th or something if he is very patient and closes late. His recent success near the pace works against him. This isn't the Sam F. Davis chasing a slow pace.

Hm. I dunno. I mean I'm on the fence but to completely toss???

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Hapman

Hm. I dunno. I mean I'm on the fence [ CATHOLIC BOY] but to completely toss???

He's an easy toss for me out of the exacta.

If I have multiple opinions for a superfecta ticket (for example I may like a horse like Vino or King Zachary as underneath keys, with Good Magic to win or 1st/2nd) Then I'm willing to include a horse like Catholic Boy 3rd or 4th for the sake of coverage. I don't want to miss a GM/kz/vr/CB superfecta or whatever, because of some trivial opinion regarding dislike of CB. (the double-key examples in post 1 should really have the 11 in the mix of their coverage).

I feel that he can only get 3rd or 4th by sitting a trip and making one run with hopefully some late flow. Haven't watched the Remsen in a while, but that is the idea. The 11-post makes generally adds a degree of difficulty. You have to have a plan from gate 11. Have to be decisive. He's had success near the pace in races, where you would think there is at least a risk for instructions or jockey to make the mistake of trying to be near the lead ("Oh just tuck in behind Good Magic and chase him down")... -That is a lot more running than Catholic Boy is accustomed to. If he can do something like that and contend at all for the win, he's a much better horse than I give him credit for. I see that trip burying/exposing him.

I don't like Gronkowski, or Catholic Boy. I like Vino Rosso and King Zachary.
Not going to be a popular opinion. This is a value related esoteric opinion. And my play against G,CB are both popular horses. And they are both dangerous. Big beautiful horses that have some promising form and some potential, and should be well prepared. I won't miss sleep and be up early in the morning handicapping if one of them makes my opinions look dead wrong.

[Robert Fischer]

R9 $1 Pick-3 $1 : / / GOOD MAGIC =$6

R9 $1 Pick-3 $1 CITY OF LIGHT / / GOOD MAGIC =$3

R9 $1 Pick-3 CITY OF LIGHT / ALL / GOOD MAGIC =$10

(PICK-3 TOTAL = $19, strategy= opinion (Whitmore as value add), chalk-emphasis, door open for price in the Sword Dancer.)

R11 THE RUNHAPPY TRAVERS S.

$100 WIN GOOD MAGIC = $100 (SOMETHING ON THE STRONG FAV)

TRIFECTAS (VINO 3RD, VINO 2ND WITH OPINIONS)
$4 TRI GOOD MAGIC // VINO ROSSO =$16
$1 TRI / GOOD MAGIC/ VINO ROSSO =$4
$0.50c TRI / / ALL =$8

$0.50c TRI ALL / / = $24 (INVERSE PYRAMID)


SUPERFECTAS (VINO EXACTLY 4TH, OPINION)
$0.50c SU //ALL/ = $14
$0.20c SU / / ALL / = $5.60

SU DBL-KEY OF (BOTH VINO AND ZACH, NOT PICKY)
$0.10 SU 9
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
$0.10 SU 5, 7
Wager Total $8.40

$0.10 SU 9
$0.10 SU 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.10 SU 5, 7
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Wager Total $8.40

SANITY-EXACTA $1 BX =$12

TOTALS
$19.00 = pick-3s
$100.40=vertical exotics
$100.00=win

(wagered = $219.40)

[Robert Fischer]

long shot p4

$0.50 P44
$0.50 P48
$0.50 P43, 7, 10
$0.50 P49
Wager Total $1.50

[Robert Fischer]

guessing Whitmore breaks well near a moderate pace and also race-rides the (who was successful closing last time and may not be sent all out today) into tight quarters.

Want to throw a few $ on that opinion

$1 TRI 8
$1 TRI 1, 5, 6
$1 TRI3 whitmore
Wager Total $3.00

$1 TRI 8
$1 TRI3 whitmore
$1 TRI 1, 5, 6
Wager Total $3.00

$10 DD WHITMORE / CHANNEL MAKER =$10

$1 pick-3 38/ 7 / 7,9,10 = $8

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

guessing Whitmore breaks well near a moderate pace and also race-rides the (who was successful closing last time and may not be sent all out today) into tight quarters.

Want to throw a few $ on that opinion

$1 TRI 8
$1 TRI 1, 5, 6
$1 TRI3 whitmore
Wager Total $3.00

$1 TRI 8
$1 TRI3 whitmore
$1 TRI 1, 5, 6
Wager Total $3.00

$10 DD WHITMORE / CHANNEL MAKER =$10

$1 pick-3 38/ 7 / 7,9,10 = $8

Opinion was strong, and I got a lucky red-sea parting on the rail for him to come through.

Should have thrown something on him to WIN that wasn't so smart.

ended up depending a lot on Channel maker(relative to the good Whitmore opinion) but also have another $PK3 3710/Gm9

Go Channel Maker!

[Robert Fischer]

lots of overlays and mispriced horses, so going to throw some more fuel on the fire

$1 DB 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $48.00

$1 DB 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB 7, 9, 10
Wager Total $21.00

$10 DB 5, 9
$10 DB 9 = $20

$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 10
Wager Total $21.00

$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Wager Total $21.00

$1 DB2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB7 =$7

[Robert Fischer]

Right idea, but I got picky excluding the and the two horses I gave no chance to.

Had a City of light/all/Good magic, but didn't use my Whitmore opinion that way.

Failure to capitalize on r9 Whitmore opinion comes back to haunt.

Channel Maker ran a good race, not good enough to catch the ...

Oh well.

Let's hit some Travers. Lot's of overlays and adapting is my strength.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

lots of overlays and mispriced horses, so going to throw some more fuel on the fire

$1 DB 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $48.00

$1 DB 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB 7, 9, 10
Wager Total $21.00

$10 DB 5, 9
$10 DB 9 = $20

$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 10
Wager Total $21.00

$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
$0.50 TRI 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Wager Total $21.00

$1 DB2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
$1 DB7 =$7

[Robert Fischer]

Good Magic keyed again without the 3 underlays (Gronk, Catholic Boy, Trigger Warning)

$0.50 TRI 9
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $15.00

$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 9
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $15.00

$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 9
Wager Total $15.00

boxing GM and the overlays in a crazy Tri

$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
$0.50 TRI 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10
Wager Total $105.00

That's all, folks.

[martini]

$0.10 Superfecta ($16.80): 7,9,10 / 3,7,9,10 / 3,4,5,7,9,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10,11
$0.10 Superfecta ($7.50): 9 / 3,7,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10,11
$1 Exacta ($3): 9 / 3,7,10
$1 Exacta ($12): 3,7,9,10 / 3,7,9,10
$1 Exacta ($9): 3,7,10 / 3,7,9,10

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by martini

$0.10 Superfecta ($16.80): 7,9,10 / 3,7,9,10 / 3,4,5,7,9,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10,11
$0.10 Superfecta ($7.50): 9 / 3,7,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10 / 2,3,4,5,7,10,11
$1 Exacta ($3): 9 / 3,7,10
$1 Exacta ($12): 3,7,9,10 / 3,7,9,10
$1 Exacta ($9): 3,7,10 / 3,7,9,10

good luck

[martini]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

good luck

lmfao, I couldn't have missed that by more.

[Robert Fischer]

Credit to those who used Catholic Boy.

Didn't envision him controlling an easy pace in a merry-go-round extended duel with Mendelssohn, but no whining here I was wrong.

Seemed like a rough trip for Good Magic who should have been up on that lead, and may have had some contact. Didn't look good at the finish from what I saw.

Not sure if Trigger Warning missed the break or what.

Congrats to those who played Catholic Boy