Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-24-2019, 10:18 PM   #1
rubicon55
Registered User
 
rubicon55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Covington, Wa
Posts: 1,955
Rep Power: 10 rubicon55 will become famous soon enough
Dropping Back In Class

Does anyone have any stats as to win percentages or ROI where after a win at a certain level the owner/trainer runs his horse at a higher tag next race out (maybe a class or two) where the horse performs poorly and then in the next race out drops the horse back to the same level where they last won? We all know this angle and that it works but how strong of an angle is this when dropping back to the same class level? Does the ROI change or more reliable at different class levels when dropping back (i.e. claiming versus allowance/stakes) or is it about the same thru different class levels? Is this angle more reliable on dirt versus turf? . This is assuming last race or races where at the same track. Any input welcome. Thanks in advance.
rubicon55 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-25-2019, 08:23 AM   #2
stuball
Registered User
 
stuball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 1,223
Rep Power: 21 stuball has a spectacular aura aboutstuball has a spectacular aura about
class drop

the only problem with that is you are assuming form stays the same... horses are usually changing form so you have to figure out where they are in their form cycle.... my 2cents for what it's worth & that ain't much

Stuball
stuball is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-26-2019, 09:12 AM   #3
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,563
Rep Power: 13 green80 is on a distinguished road
also you have to look at the conditions of the race, a lower claiming price for a race with less conditions could be much better horses
green80 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Which Pletcher has the better chance finishing in the super?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:40 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2019 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.