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Old 01-24-2019, 10:18 PM   #1
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Dropping Back In Class

Does anyone have any stats as to win percentages or ROI where after a win at a certain level the owner/trainer runs his horse at a higher tag next race out (maybe a class or two) where the horse performs poorly and then in the next race out drops the horse back to the same level where they last won? We all know this angle and that it works but how strong of an angle is this when dropping back to the same class level? Does the ROI change or more reliable at different class levels when dropping back (i.e. claiming versus allowance/stakes) or is it about the same thru different class levels? Is this angle more reliable on dirt versus turf? . This is assuming last race or races where at the same track. Any input welcome. Thanks in advance.
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Old 01-25-2019, 08:23 AM   #2
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class drop

the only problem with that is you are assuming form stays the same... horses are usually changing form so you have to figure out where they are in their form cycle.... my 2cents for what it's worth & that ain't much

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Old 01-26-2019, 09:12 AM   #3
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also you have to look at the conditions of the race, a lower claiming price for a race with less conditions could be much better horses
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