Track Take out Percentage? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Fred · 08-10-2004, 08:33 PM

I am math cultured at a two year college level. Something is working on my mind that I do not understand. If I bet a pick 3 vs betting the horses flat I have been reading that the track take over 3 races (assuming track take is 25%) is 8+ percent a race which is better than 17% on win bet. This logic does not compute with me. If I wager on a p3 track takes 25% of that pool right of the top, no? If I wager on these horses as invidual bets track takes 17% on the first leg and 17% on the second leg and 17% on the third leg. That equals 17% no matter how you slice it. If I wager on a p3, which is a seperate pool they take 25% off the top in the first leg. How is 25% better than 17%. Can anyone explain how I am looking at this the wromg way?

Fred

Skanoochies · 08-10-2004, 08:57 PM

I`m no math genius. But wouldn`t 25% taken out of a pool that lasted three races be better than 17% taken out of each winners take in individual races.? HELP!

Skanoochies.

BillW · 08-10-2004, 09:04 PM

Fred,

I think you got it, with the exception of 3 breakages (TM

) instead of one for the P-3. This is one of the things that erode show betting also, multiple breakage raked off the top.

Other option is to play the HOU P-3 @ 12% take

Bill

Zaf · 08-10-2004, 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by BillW
Fred,

Other option is to play the HOU P-3 @ 12% take

Bill

This is one of the best deals in racing

Why aren't the pools bigger

?

ZAFONIC

BillW · 08-10-2004, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by zafonic
This is one of the best deals in racing Why aren't the pools bigger ?

ZAFONIC

Not sure, but at one time the pools had increased 230% for a 50% drop in handle (i.e. the gross take went UP!)

Bill

azibuck · 08-11-2004, 12:54 PM

You are no math genius. Aw, I'm just kidding. I think the key is including the phrase "of every dollar wagered."

Pick 3 take: 25% of every dollar wagered.
Win take: 17 % of every dollar wagered.

Bet $6 on a Pick 3: Track takes $6x.25 = $1.50.
Bet $2 W on 3 races: Track takes $2x.17 = $.34 x 3 = $1.02.

Dollar for dollar, the win pool is cheaper. That a Pick 3 wagers "lasts" 3 races is neither here nor there. Three win wagers lasts three races too.

The structure of the bets can make it come out vastly different, but at its base level (one dollar), the win pool is more economical.

az

GameTheory · 08-11-2004, 01:06 PM

The Pick3 should be compared to a win PARLAY over three races, because that is basically what a P3 is.

maxwell · 08-11-2004, 05:09 PM

Azibuck,

A $2 bet in the p3 is : 1 x 1 x 1 x $2 = $2

Your $6 is multiple horses

Fred · 08-11-2004, 07:30 PM

Pick 3 take: 25% of every dollar wagered.
Win take: 17 % of every dollar wagered.

Bet $6 on a Pick 3: Track takes $6x.25 = $1.50.
Bet $2 W on 3 races: Track takes $2x.17 = $.34 x 3 = $1.02.

Dollar for dollar, the win pool is cheaper. That a Pick 3 wagers "lasts" 3 races is neither here nor there. Three win wagers lasts three races too.

The structure of the bets can make it come out vastly different, but at its base level (one dollar), the win pool is more economical.

az [/B][/QUOTE]

I agree with you Azibuck. I have read more than once that the p3 is the best bet to minimize the takeout but I do not think it is so!

Fred

Buckeye · 08-11-2004, 08:19 PM

If it was that great more money would be bet on it. Not like it's anything new. What am I missing here? Finding value in three consecutive races? The value is diluted just as much as the take-out. So it's a wash.

hurrikane · 08-12-2004, 02:57 AM

I don't think anyone heard you Game

cj · 08-12-2004, 04:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by GameTheory
The Pick3 should be compared to a win PARLAY over three races, because that is basically what a P3 is.

The difference is that not many people are hitting P3s with straight tickets. I've never really understood people saying the P3 Parlay paid more than 3 horse win parlay. Of course it will most times. The 3 horse parlay is assuming you only bet those three horses. In a P3, say you bet $40 to hit a P3 that pays $200. The win parlay would have paid you $180. Is this really an overlay? Somewhere, the losing combinations played have to be taken into account.

GameTheory · 08-12-2004, 04:53 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
The difference is that not many people are hitting P3s with straight tickets. I've never really understood people saying the P3 Parlay paid more than 3 horse win parlay. Of course it will most times. The 3 horse parlay is assuming you only bet those three horses. In a P3, say you bet $40 to hit a P3 that pays $200. The win parlay would have paid you $180. Is this really an overlay? Somewhere, the losing combinations played have to be taken into account.

They are if you do it right. Each P3 combination would be compared with the equivalent win parlay. So a $40 P3 ticket made up of 20 $2 combinations would be equivalent to 20 $2 win parlays.

cj · 08-12-2004, 06:21 AM

Lets try a little example, I have no idea where this will lead. Yesterday, ILS posted 3 horses in each race for the last three at Saratoga. To play a P3 for $2, that would cost $54. The $2 Pick 3 paid $1,037.

Now, lets take that same $54 and do a win parlay.

You would bet $18 on each of the selections in the 7th race. The winning horse paid $8.20, for a return of $73.80 on the $54.

Now, divide $73.80 by 3 to get the bet amount on each of the 3 horses in leg 2, it is 24.60. The winning horse pays 17.60, for a winning return of 216.48.

Divide that by three to get the amount bet on the horses in the last race, and you get $72.16. The winner in the last paid $11.20. You are returned $404.10.

So despite the higher takeout, was a much better bet than the win betting. Double even.

Why, with the higher takeout does this happen? I think its finding the right races with value. You cannot have two favorites winning in a P3 bet and expect to win much.

Just trying to do some deep thinking on the subject. I know from experience, the P3 is a GREAT bet in the right circumstances. It usually involves singling a horse who is not a favorite or second choice, and spreading in another race where you think the favorite won't win. The downside is you have to be able to handle seeing your single win and pay double digits, and missing the P3. It can, and WILL, happen.

I would like to know the reasons the higher takeout is better value many times, but in the end, it doesn't matter why, just that you know it happens.

azibuck · 08-12-2004, 09:10 AM

I don't disagree that the P3 will usually be a better value bet, but the takeout is higher, and should not be divided by 3 and assumed it has a "real" takeout of 8% per race.

Quote:

I would like to know the reasons the higher takeout is better value many times, but in the end, it doesn't matter why, just that you know it happens.

CJ, I think you're on the wrong track, but I admire deep thinkers. I do a lot of deep thinking here at work. Just not about work. I don't think "the higher takeout is better value," I think the better value is due to the inefficiency of the pool. I probably just misused that phrase, but I think that's what it is.