Turf paradise selections

[maclr11]

Too early to start the thread
Interesting card
The bienvedos stakes is a good race, same with the atba trials
Looks like a bunch of new riders on the overnight

[johnhannibalsmith]

I'm trying to decide if I should start getting energetic now and make a trip down. I think I need to dig through these QH trials a bit and see if there's any way to make money in that part of the card, because at first glance, other than the Bienvenidos, it looks a little stale on opportunity. Then again, I usually go light the first couple of weeks as a rule, but pounders usually get an exemption from the rationale behind that self-imposed edict.

The early pick I spied that may be a play at the right price if he looks good in the flesh is in race 7, first division of the colts' trial. Deliver The Goods - ran once in Albuquerque and got stomped, but showed a little run in the first half. Came back after that debut and has done nothing but work well, with the exception of his most recent, which was only two days ago, so assuming even the taskmaster was just going for something easy before the big race. I'm going to assume that they didn't exactly have him ready to run the first time and he woke up with that experience and if he has any kind of ability at all, he should be able to demonstrate it in this spot.

Hard to guess on a price in a race like this, but thinking he has to end up at double digits or so with a few winners in here, including a CBY MSW winner, the third place finisher from the spring stakes, a second timer with a decent Del Mar debut, and a multiple winner that is stakes placed and an allowance winner at PM and CBY in his last two. Obviously would be expecting a lot to think that Deliver The Goods could handle all of those credentialed foes, but since it may be a tough race to make a buck in without a kicker at a price, he may be the one to make the $5 exacta into a $50 trifecta or some such thing.

And yeah on the jocks. We got Katie Repp back out of mommy retirement. LouieRod doing what he should have done at the end of ArP last year showing up somewhere that he can win races and keep getting better. A pile of pounder jocks in for the trials. Even Rocco Bowen here to ride the stakes. Poor old veteran regulars just can't catch a break around here.

Hmmmm... maybe I need to get energized.

[maclr11]

I'll get the form this afternoon and take a peek
Rocco Bowen isn't bad he rode here for a couple years
La weekend should b tough once again
I gotta look at the baby race though still

[johnhannibalsmith]

Alright, it's opening day and with four days of entries to look at... sad as it is... today's card may be the highlight of the week.

For the sake of resurrecting the annual thread and shaking off the cobwebs, I'll try to make something happen with this early pick four that covers three trials for the John Deere Futurity.

I thought the first race was a total crapshoot, no pun intended... well, okay, pun acknowledged and intended a bit, so let's call it the leg in the sequence that looks legitimately like the one where you may be able to connect with a price without a whole lot of thought.

The second trial was actually tough for me to narrow, as the logical players aren't exactly steamrollers, but it seemed fairly reckless and counter-productive to run up the ticket by getting too deep in here. I could easily imagine getting blown out of the water here by being too confident with an obvious player or two, so I'll straddle with an extra play in the event of an extreme outside bias and some respect for the kid calling the shots.

Leg three I thought was where you had to single the obvious contender unless you wanted to roll the dice that the pool size would be big enough to justify a big ticket and that the likely odds-on favorite isn't that much of a standout and that it's insane to go counting on the rail draw. I can see both perspectives, particularly being forced to single from the rail, but I can easily see this pick four coming back very light and think you have to be conservative with the outlay here, so though I hate to do it, singling this guy just seems like the best play.

The finale in the sequence is technically a maiden allowance for two-year-olds, but in practice it is a trial for the ATBA sales stakes filly division. I'd actually like to go one deeper than I am, but want to keep my ticket below $50 and will probably regret my choice of the final cut from the ticket. Between thinking the likely favorite will be overly supported and the reality that this is nothing more than a prep and you don't even need to finish anywhere in particular to run in the finals, it seems like a bad spot to be needing anyone in particular, regardless of disparity in apparent talent.

So... here we go 2013/14...

Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

Spring training is upon us, let there be light.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Holy Crap!

Turf has upgraded the 1973 graphics with some fancy new 1998 graphics!

[maclr11]

Taking a shot at the pounder pick 4 as well

Firstly the new graphics look very bright, I kinda was used to the old ones though. I new a change was coming as this is the same tote display system that ASD uses.
The first leg looks wide open
Not quite going all but all the horses who are fit or trained by Matthew Fales, which is normally a good wager.

The second race I didn't wanna use a ton but figured I had to use the 1,3,7,8
Fales looks like the winner from the 8 hole, but try to get him beat with a price horse would be nice. Just a reminder that I know nothing about Quarter Horses.

The third trial I couldn't get past the obvious 1 horse , if he gets beat so do I
Should be much the best coming from Los Alamitos

I really don't think much of Idling as I have watched her before a few times, I'd like to try some other horses in here so I will use everyone who has run before including the three Barrets horses. I don't think Molly's horse can run judging by the works and the rider. Discreet Star is probably the one to beat but I like Lady Charming after a tough trip. I don't like the rider stats on the 4 Sweet G but oh well.


$0.50 Pick 4
2,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,7,8/1/2,4,5,6 $48

[maclr11]

Late scratch of the 7
Will now use
2,3,4,5,6,9/1,3,7,8/1/2,4,5,6 $48
Just to keep play at $48

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

...
Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

...

The just scratched at the gate (welcome back Turf!) so let's just plug the old 8 in that spot rather than get stuck with the fave twice.

[maclr11]

Matt Fales wins the first QH race of the year
What a shock
Bet down from 8/1 to 5/1, the horse closed last to catch the favorite
Is Quinella wagering new? I cant remember if Turf had it last year.
Good start to the day.
Fales percentage would be way higher than 24 percent if he didn't run so many doubles and triples in the same race.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maclr11

Matt Fales wins the first QH race of the year
What a shock
Bet down from 8/1 to 5/1, the horse closed last to catch the favorite
Is Quinella wagering new? I cant remember if Turf had it last year.
Good start to the day.
Fales percentage would be way higher than 24 percent if he didn't run so many doubles and triples in the same race.

Yup, I actually thought this one may end up the favorite. Was bet hard in it's debut and ran into a steamroller that day in trials and then had all kinds of trouble when it ran back in the consolation.

I'm pretty sure quinellas have been available for as long as I've been in AZ. I usually look for discrepancies between the Q and exacta pools if I'm stuck on two I like a ton. The pool is usually horrible, but I've cashed where the Q has been significantly better than the exacta, especially when there's an illogical looking runner that is getting played hard on the tote.

One down, several thousand to go.

[maclr11]

Make that two wins on the day for Matthew Fales

Now onto our single and I'm gonna play a little backup Pick 3

$1 Pick 3 1,3,4,7,8/2,4,5,6/1 $20

I really like Oh Mexico in the 5th and think he should be really tough to beat.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

...Race 1: .50 pick 4 - 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,9/ 3,8,9 / 1 / 1,2,5,6 = $48

...

Come on! Find a reason to take the 8 down so I can get the 9 at 19-1 instead of the 8 at 3-5!

Edited:

Wow! This is what I was talking about with quinellas - should have been paying attention to will pays and actually trying to make some fake money.

My nine runs second to the eight and the $1 exacta pays $36.70...

The $1 quinella pays almost THREE TIMES as much at $96.80...

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by maclr11

...

Now onto our single and I'm gonna play a little backup Pick 3

$1 Pick 3 1,3,4,7,8/2,4,5,6/1 $20

I really like Oh Mexico in the 5th and think he should be really tough to beat.

Alright, I'm going to follow your lead here with two down and try to figure out how to make the pick 4 a bit less of a losing proposition even with two scores through two.

R3) .50 P3 - 1,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 3,6 = $20

[maclr11]

Well the Pick 4 is negative to the 2 but I make money if 4,5 or 6 win.
Hoping that the first thourghbred race of the year brings some good luck

I really am not an Idling fan so
$1 Tri 5,6/2,5,6/ALL $16

Schnell has a whole bunch of babies that will run relatively soon
We had some of them up here for a while
I'll talk about them more when they are entered like Kale.

[maclr11]

Brinkerhoff's horse blows the turn
Huckleberry Finn's horse as Chambers likes to call him stops at the sixteenth pole and Idling rolls on by.. ugh disgusting.
Small payoff, oh well I guess its better than nothing.
Now moving on to the late stuff
Gotta find a play now with the scratch of LA Weekend