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Old 03-14-2018, 03:26 PM   #316
Tom
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Late odds changes are making me money. Because of them , I hardly ever bet any more.
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Old 03-14-2018, 04:49 PM   #317
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He was 4 wide bobbing heads for the lead when he went from 4-5 to Even

And curiously where did you watch the replay that shows him 3-5 in the gate? The replay I watched from rtn has no gate odds.
As they were loading, Wrona quoted him at 3/5.
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Old 03-14-2018, 07:16 PM   #318
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Best link ever posted. Clearly they found a workaround to keep this going, that is if anything was done in the first place. Susan Bala doesn't seem like she had any understanding of the consequences. I'm sure Andy could write at least one more book but he's probably figuring there's so much wrong with things at this point it would be 'the other side of racing' part 2 if anyone remembers that old documentary.

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I'm less concerned about odds changes due to old technology and more concerned with teams who have the ability to see real time odds changes while the average bettor cannot. Think "flash boys" on wall street. Solving this issue would at least ensure everyone is on a level playing field whether automated or not. Perhaps someone should file suit against a data or signal providers and show how distribution of the signal updates is happening in an inequitable manner to ensure fair play - this would be illegal on wall street, why is it in a federally regulated parimutuel pool?

This is the right question to ask to get movement on this topic - has been forever if the players can organize it into legislation, that is the only thing the signal providers and horsemen will react to at this point. Does it upset anyone that the computer teams get to see the real time odds for an entire minute and decide whether or not to jump in?

March 14, 2001
http://www.espn.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=1154966

An outraged professional gambler observed that this is equivalent to "a secret auction where one bidder gets to see all the other bids and then decides whether he wants to participate."

Campaigning this is simple: ALL participants get 1 minute updates. It's fair, it's straightforward. It best ensures equitable treatment under the law. (to be written)
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Old 03-14-2018, 09:37 PM   #319
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As they were loading, Wrona quoted him at 3/5.
By the way, I love that Wrona does this.
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Old 03-14-2018, 09:55 PM   #320
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Best link ever posted. Clearly they found a workaround to keep this going, that is if anything was done in the first place. Susan Bala doesn't seem like she had any understanding of the consequences. I'm sure Andy could write at least one more book but he's probably figuring there's so much wrong with things at this point it would be 'the other side of racing' part 2 if anyone remembers that old documentary.
Anyone can get the exacta matrix. I'm losing hair reading the constant rebuttals from people in the industry against the claim "people have direct access to the tote". Perhaps some one has some magical terminal to read odds changes quicker than you or I can (directly from the tote), but I have yet to see anyone post ANY proof that ANY bettor has access to the tri/super/p3/etc matrices.

It's getting to the point where I'm convinced most (all?) of the people who are complaining are losers searching for a boogyman.
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Old 03-14-2018, 10:10 PM   #321
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On a related note, for those who are complaining about late odds changes and believe they're caused by CRW teams, assuming you agree to the following (if you don't agree then there's no point in discussing):

1. No one is consistently past posting. That is, no teams are getting bets in after the start of the race consistently. Perhaps it happens occasionally but due to tech problems
2. No team has access to special data that isn't readily available to everyone,
though it might cost $ (i.e. no one is able to buy the tri/super matrices)

Assuming those 2 points, what solution do those angered by late odds changes and loss of value propose? You're essentially arguing against others being better at handicapping. Full stop. They're better at finding value and squeezing it out and you're mad about it. The sport should get rid of them because they're better.

Does that seem fair?

Where do we cutoff who should be allowed to bet and who shouldn't? Only people who are worse than you should be allowed to bet? No computer analysis? Only computer analysis up to the sophistication of your computer analysis? This is maddening....
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Old 03-15-2018, 07:00 AM   #322
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Has nothing to do with better handicapping and everything to do with someone consistently being allowed to bet after the masses do. Let's say you're the best handicapper in the world and I'm just very good, you know a horse should be 2-1 and it's 7-2 at zero MTP. You of course place your bet, now they're loading and I'm able to sit at the hub with a hook in the system, when the gates pop I know this horse is actually closer to 3-1 at that moment and the windows will lockout in say 5-10 seconds. The difference at this point isn't handicapping, the difference is my advantage when betting this late, you're a sitting duck now, you have no defense.

I simply bet just enough to take the horse down to 2-1. Let's say you're correct and long-term this horse wins at 2-1, you break-even at best and I break-even plus I get a big rebate check. These people will rarely end up getting paid back less than their odds-line, for everyone else it's inevitable to land on too many underlays, especially at tracks like Mountaineer where an absurd 48% of the pool is coming in after 0 MTP.
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Old 03-15-2018, 07:55 AM   #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
On a related note, for those who are complaining about late odds changes and believe they're caused by CRW teams, assuming you agree to the following (if you don't agree then there's no point in discussing):

1. No one is consistently past posting. That is, no teams are getting bets in after the start of the race consistently. Perhaps it happens occasionally but due to tech problems
2. No team has access to special data that isn't readily available to everyone,
though it might cost $ (i.e. no one is able to buy the tri/super matrices)

Assuming those 2 points, what solution do those angered by late odds changes and loss of value propose? You're essentially arguing against others being better at handicapping. Full stop. They're better at finding value and squeezing it out and you're mad about it. The sport should get rid of them because they're better.

Does that seem fair?

Where do we cutoff who should be allowed to bet and who shouldn't? Only people who are worse than you should be allowed to bet? No computer analysis? Only computer analysis up to the sophistication of your computer analysis? This is maddening....
sorry you are 100% wrong. if you are a $25 million a year bettor, i will be able to get you a consul that hooks up directly to the tote. if you are that bettor please contact me, i will be more than happy to get you hooked up.
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Old 03-15-2018, 07:58 AM   #324
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Originally Posted by JerryBoyle View Post
On a related note, for those who are complaining about late odds changes and believe they're caused by CRW teams, assuming you agree to the following (if you don't agree then there's no point in discussing):

1. No one is consistently past posting. That is, no teams are getting bets in after the start of the race consistently. Perhaps it happens occasionally but due to tech problems
2. No team has access to special data that isn't readily available to everyone,
though it might cost $ (i.e. no one is able to buy the tri/super matrices)

Assuming those 2 points, what solution do those angered by late odds changes and loss of value propose? You're essentially arguing against others being better at handicapping. Full stop. They're better at finding value and squeezing it out and you're mad about it. The sport should get rid of them because they're better.

Does that seem fair?

Where do we cutoff who should be allowed to bet and who shouldn't? Only people who are worse than you should be allowed to bet? No computer analysis? Only computer analysis up to the sophistication of your computer analysis? This is maddening....
There's no point going on past your bolded points because if you read this thread you'll see that plenty of people think both regularly take place.
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Old 03-15-2018, 08:43 AM   #325
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Originally Posted by MJC922 View Post
Has nothing to do with better handicapping and everything to do with someone consistently being allowed to bet after the masses do. Let's say you're the best handicapper in the world and I'm just very good, you know a horse should be 2-1 and it's 7-2 at zero MTP. You of course place your bet, now they're loading and I'm able to sit at the hub with a hook in the system, when the gates pop I know this horse is actually closer to 3-1 at that moment and the windows will lockout in say 5-10 seconds. The difference at this point isn't handicapping, the difference is my advantage when betting this late, you're a sitting duck now, you have no defense.

I simply bet just enough to take the horse down to 2-1. Let's say you're correct and long-term this horse wins at 2-1, you break-even at best and I break-even plus I get a big rebate check. These people will rarely end up getting paid back less than their odds-line, for everyone else it's inevitable to land on too many underlays, especially at tracks like Mountaineer where an absurd 48% of the pool is coming in after 0 MTP.
Part of handicapping is estimating the price you'll be getting, sizing your bets appropriately, and planning when to bet. To counter your example, simply bet the price down to what you think is fair e.g. 2-1 in your example. You'll get the rebate too... Perhaps you (not you necessarily, but anyone in this situation), don't have the funds available to bet the price down, or you don't have the technological knowhow to read in price data at the time you'd like. Those things don't make the game unfair. There's no structural barrier in the game that won't allow you to accomplish them. It's simply you not being good enough or not working as hard as your competitors. Capitalism at its finest.
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Old 03-15-2018, 08:47 AM   #326
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sorry you are 100% wrong. if you are a $25 million a year bettor, i will be able to get you a consul that hooks up directly to the tote. if you are that bettor please contact me, i will be more than happy to get you hooked up.
What does this magical consul look like? Is it actually a consul like a bloomberg terminal? Is it software? Does it pull in all tote companies? You've made this claim before, and you're the only person I've seen make it. Not saying it doesn't exist, but sounds a bit fishy.

That said, IT'S STILL NOT THE REASON YOU'RE LOSING AND THEY'RE WINNING. Assuming this magical terminal exists, take away the terminal and only assume they're getting odds from archaic scraping of websites, which is completely possible for ANYONE to do, these teams will still win. Again, nothing unfair - those complaining simply need to admit they're not as good and accept it.
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Old 03-15-2018, 09:06 AM   #327
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This argument is what has led me back to being a dominantly exotics bettor. The fluctuation is not as great as to effect your bottomline. There is plenty of fluctuation but going from 8-1 to 7-1 isn't as detrimental as 7/2 to 2-1. Playing at those narrow edges any expected bad run or a series of these bet drops and your profit gets watered down quickly. I had a recent bad run and my ROI dropped 14%. If you are a good win bettor and say you have a 30% ROI and it drops down to 16% you are back into the land of hard earned mediocrity. Been here plenty myself. If your ROI is double, triple, or even quadruple that, a 14% drop doesn't make you sweat. And that is possible if you choose your bets and they pay say 6-1 or better or you don't play. The quest for true odds is futile IMO. Seek better returns period.
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Old 03-15-2018, 09:32 AM   #328
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if some bettors are getting tote information that others cannot then this is no longer true paramutual wagering, therefore by definition, you have a violation of many state's laws. Someone should take this to a court of competent jurisdiction and put an end to this argument.
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Old 03-15-2018, 09:57 AM   #329
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Does that seem fair?

Where do we cutoff who should be allowed to bet and who shouldn't? Only people who are worse than you should be allowed to bet? No computer analysis? Only computer analysis up to the sophistication of your computer analysis? This is maddening....
Not wanting to get rid of anyone, but the actually playing of the bet should be on a level playing field. You bet at the window or through and ADW - NOT direct access to the pools. If that is the way you see as fair, then I will happily STOP making bets and find other forms of gambling. Should you be able to place a bet after the roulette val is thrown, having some computer that analyzes the speed of the wheel and the ball?

Are you allowed to bring your lap to to the blackjack table and track the cards? Man, you can't even count cards in your mind or they will break your knees. Should a guy capable of counting card be allowed to bet?
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Old 03-15-2018, 10:16 AM   #330
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Not wanting to get rid of anyone, but the actually playing of the bet should be on a level playing field. You bet at the window or through and ADW - NOT direct access to the pools. If that is the way you see as fair, then I will happily STOP making bets and find other forms of gambling. Should you be able to place a bet after the roulette val is thrown, having some computer that analyzes the speed of the wheel and the ball?

Are you allowed to bring your lap to to the blackjack table and track the cards? Man, you can't even count cards in your mind or they will break your knees. Should a guy capable of counting card be allowed to bet?
What does this mean? It's repeated over and over and over and over again
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