Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[Mc990]

Best weekend of the racing year is upon us... give me your most likely winner, your value play and your short price toss... good luck to all

Most likely- Bellafina

Value- Sadler's Joy

Toss- Monomoy Girl

[Redboard]

I'll have my plays in a few days, but just to get everyone revved up, here were last year’s best values:

F&M Sprint(dirt): Bar Of Gold: 66-1

Turf Sprint : Stormy Liberal: 30-1

Juvy Fillies(dirt): Caledonia Road : 17-1

Dirt Mile: Battle Of Midway: 14-1

Juvy Turf Sprint(OK it was called the Quatar Juvenile Turf Sprint stakes): DeclarationOfPeace 14-1

Turf : Talismatic : 14-1

F&M Turf : Wuheida : 11-1

Juvenile (dirt): Good Magic: 11-1

That’s eight winners that were greater than 10-1. In 2016, there was only half that — four winners cracked the 10-1 threshold. The 2016 BC was considered a chalk meet.

[RunDustyRun]

Dirt Mile -- Catalina Cruiser...would have liked to see Sadler take a shot with this horse in the Classic

[RunDustyRun]

Value -- Anonymity in the F&M sprint...beautiful filly who Mandella has brought along slowly..last race sets her up for a huge run in my eyes

Toss -- Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out and come home times are nothing special...east coast fillies look better to me

[Suff]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Dirt Mile -- Catalina Cruiser...would have liked to see Sadler take a shot with this horse in the Classic

I'm looking and I see holes.

Never gone distance.
Timeform does not have those races up Fast..
Only beat 3 home last
Battle of Midway ..eh.. not sure what he is.

I have no ML, No Jocks, NO Post.. using the pre-entries..Seeking The Soul is cross entered to the classic, but if StS goes here, I see the 1 turn mile race sets up for him. We'll know in couple hours. Lots of speed horses in the Mile.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

Bellafina...dont trust the trainer as he burns horses out

Any specific examples of this?

[cj]

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

[RunDustyRun]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Any specific examples of this?

Firing Line and Run Away off the top of my head...also think Moonshine Memories has been very up and down as well...I rate the trainer with grass horses and he is very good with young dirt horses in their first couple of starts but they will then often times tail off or get injured..he trains them very fast like baffert...just my perspective in that he has a hard time keeping them sound and moving forward as the starts add up...saying that...he also trains American Gal who is one of my favorite horses..

[RunDustyRun]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I'm looking and I see holes.

Never gone distance.
Timeform does not have those races up Fast..
Only beat 3 home last
Battle of Midway ..eh.. not sure what he is.

I have no ML, No Jocks, NO Post.. using the pre-entries..Seeking The Soul is cross entered to the classic, but if StS goes here, I see the 1 turn mile race sets up for him. We'll know in couple hours. Lots of speed horses in the Mile.

Valid points but watch the replay of the pat obrien...no matter the number, you will seldom see a horse go any easier at that cruising speed...talk at the time was that Sadler scratched Accellerate out of the race because he would have lost to Cruiser...works are sharp and seems as if it's all systems go...only problem will likely be the short odds...

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by RunDustyRun

...saying that...he also trains American Gal who is one of my favorite horses..

American Gal arguably could be added to your list, too.

She had 2 different layoffs of over 6 months in her 9-race career, hasn't been out since flopping at Belmont 4 months ago, and is apparently retired as she's entered in the Fasig-Tipton November Sale as a broodmare prospect.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

Bold declaration with the X-factor Euros always hit-or-miss.

I don't know how well you rate her, but Summering was all the rage on the west coast, and her price will balloon from odds-on to 30-1 (morning line) in the Breeders' Cup.

Room didn't open up for her down the lane last out and Drayden Van Dyke didn't seem willing to let her loose anyways, especially right before the wire when he snatched her up noticeably. Not sure if she was lugging into the rail or what, but if she's all right physically, she should outrun her odds. Whether that's good enough to win the whole thing remains to be seen.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by cj

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

That's good twitter humor.

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

In the Juvenile Fillies, I see great upside with Jaywalk getting the job done. Cassies Dream has potential to hit the board at big odds. Don't like Bellafina, as she is not efficient and effective late pace wise as Jaywalk is.

[biggestal99]

Most likely- Enable

Value- Stillwater Cove

Toss- Monomoy Girl


Allan

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Fuss

That's good twitter humor.

I'm curious how fast #2 The Mackem Bullet might be. Do you have any idea?
Nobody in either of Newspapers 2 races has done much since.

Le Pelosa #5, 15-1 ML. Passed 10 in last, and passed them up the gut too. That's a good sign for 2YO. Some rail, but most of the dirty work was well earned. He was also a bit green in the stretch or else might have won by 3.

NOR is untested. Weak fields, Only yielding turf. No interest at odds on. But other than Summering #12, I can't see enough speed to set up Le Pelosa.

And honestly, I seen this enough that Its a real possibility.. Somebody pulls up to Newspaper of record at the 16th pole and he just Folds.... seen that plenty from these loose horses that get over hyped. I also don't trust the beyers, and your figures don't exactly flatter him either.

The Mackem Bullet is talented, though a bit of a hanger, and hasn't been tested beyond 6F.

Nobody in Newspaperofrecord's races has done much because they have raced against her. The second finisher in the Miss Grillo might prove her biggest rival here.

La Pelosa benefited from a very fast pace last time ( as did the runner up ) and still didn't run nearly as fast as Newspaperofrecord.

Only yielding turf? What conditions do you think she will get on Friday given the expected two or three inches of rain on Wednesday and Thursday? This is to her advantage....not disadvantage.

Perhaps someone will challenge her and she may fold, but given her competition in this race, nobody may be good enough to do that.

You don't trust her Beyers? Well, they work for the horses behind her, so I'm not sure what is actually untrustworthy about them. As far as Craig's figures, they make her overwhelmingly the horse to beat as well.

But, most importantly, he is a she.