WHo will be the democrat nominee for president 2020? - Page 39 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

jimmyb · 09-12-2019, 09:23 PM

350 cable channels and the only one covering this debate is a Latino station. lol

OntheRail · 09-12-2019, 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmyb

350 cable channels and the only one covering this debate is a Latino station. lol

I'll take it it's Univision I bet... and if there anchor was not on the panel they would not be airing it.

I know it's been branded as a circus.... that is a grave disservice to Circuses the World over. They are captivating and entertaining... Watching it is hard.

JustRalph · 09-13-2019, 01:25 AM

Will it be this guy

Saratoga_Mike · 09-13-2019, 09:30 AM

Last night's Dem Debate.

In my opinion, there was no clear winner. I should state that I only watched the first two hours, as the tedium at that point was just too much. I watched every minute of the prior debates, and they just weren't breaking any new ground.

Biden - His opening statement was trite, disjointed and uninspiring. I think I heard him use the same phrases at the Iowa State Fair. Overall, he comported himself relatively well, but I doubt he won over any new voters last night.

Warren - She has the crowds? She has the momentum? Her performance? Flat at best, but she didn't hurt herself.

Bernie - He was really angry last night. So much so, I was worried about his health. If you're Bernie, Biden isn't the target anymore. It's Warren, but he doesn't engage her. I suspect they have a non-aggression pact in place. Could it be a Warren/Sanders ticket? The Geriatric Northeastern Liberal Ticket?

Harris - Fake. Disingenuous. More unlikable by the minute.

Mayor Pete - Honestly, his act is getting old. Stop preaching/whining about the debate back and forth between candidates. As Castro said, it's a debate - candidates draw contrasts and distinctions between each other. On a positive note, his answer on Afghanistan was pitch perfect for the base and most voters in general.

Amy K - Epiphany! I'm a moderate. There are few moderates on the stage. Moderates make up 40% to 45% of the base. I should stress my moderate credentials...forcefully. Her best debate yet, but it probably won't matter. Negatively, her answer on trade was blather.

Booker - He just can't gain any traction, and I don't think last night changed that narrative. Examining his record as mayor of Newark tells me his instincts are more moderate than most perceive.

Beto - He went all-in on the gun issue. I could see him receiving a negligible bump in the polls from that.

Castro - Small and petty. To steal his phrase, Adios Castro.

Yang - The MATH candidate who can't do math. What's the cost of his plan? Right around $4 trillion/year ($12k/person/year x 330 mm people). What are the current level of federal outlays (all spending, everything)? $4.4 trillion/year. Oh, his little stunt (see opening statement) is most likely illegal (it's called buying votes).

elysiantraveller · 09-13-2019, 09:42 AM

Caught the last hour... and some of the first on replay.

Nothing changes among the top three.

The underlings all had good nights.

Harris had a bad night... I had her wrong... she's running a very scared campaign. All if her stuff is wayyyy too canned and seems fake. Paralyzed with fear about taking a misstep.

Chances at this point:

Biden: 50%
Warren: 30%
Bernie: 10%
Others: 10%

Tom · 09-13-2019, 09:42 AM

I say Biden.

He is the only one on the stage who remotely looks or sounds like an American.
The rest will never pull it off - Americans are not that stupid.

Saratoga_Mike · 09-13-2019, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

I say Biden.

He is the only one on the stage who remotely looks or sounds like an American.
The rest will never pull it off - Americans are not that stupid.

A few months back, my theory on Biden was as follows: he's the only true moderate in the race with a legit chance. Moderates make up 40% to 45% of the Dem base. I thought he could potentially stack up early wins, and the bandwagon effect would start to push his primary wins over 50%, which would help him secure the nomination. Now, he isn't looking good in Iowa or NH. Unless something changes, he will still crush it South Carolina. But will that be enough to get him back on track? I don't know.

At this point, Biden has two things on his side: the black vote (as his Dem brethren continue to effectively bash Obama, his black support will solidify/grow, imo) and Southern states (more moderates). African American voters accounted for 24% of votes in the 2016 Dem primary. Assuming Biden can win 65% of the black vote, that alone will put him at 16%.* To get to 50.1%, he'll need to win 45% of white/Hispanic votes. Possible, but not easy. As an aside, I don't believe Super Delegates have first-round votes in 2020, under the new Dem rules.

*even this math is misleading, as African American voters aren't spread evenly across primaries, obviously.

FakeNameChanged · 09-13-2019, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Caught the last hour... and some of the first on replay.

Nothing changes among the top three.

The underlings all had good nights.

Harris had a bad night... I had her wrong... she's running a very scared campaign. All if her stuff is wayyyy too canned and seems fake. Paralyzed with fear about taking a misstep.

Chances at this point:

Biden: 50%
Warren: 30%
Bernie: 10%
Others: 10%

Have to agree with your 10% Bernie assessment. He was clearly having voice problems from the opening statement. But he always comes off as an angry old man, not a good look for a President. With all his gaffes, Joe still looks the most Presidential. When asked about racisim and reparations, he rambled on and when finished, George S. or whomever asked the question, sort of said, Uh, thank you Mr. Vice President, in a way like he didn't WTH he had just heard.(edit): I have to upgrade Buttiegieg, Yang and Booker on last night's performance.

elysiantraveller · 09-13-2019, 10:24 AM

Biden should lead in the delegate count after romping in South Carolina.

Even after 2nd and 3rd place finishes in Iowa and NH respectively.

elysiantraveller · 09-13-2019, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Have to agree with your 10% Bernie assessment. He was clearly having voice problems from the opening statement. But he always comes off as an angry old man, not a good look for a President. With all his gaffes, Joe still looks the most Presidential. When asked about racisim and reparations, he rambled on and when finished, George S. or whomever asked the question, sort of said, Uh, thank you Mr. Vice President, in a way like he didn't WTH he had just heard.(edit): I have to upgrade Buttiegieg, Yang and Booker on last night's performance.

The longer Bernie stays in the more it hurts Warren. Bernie supporters are rabid but I think it's interesting because Warren is basically a significantly better version of Bernie.

I understand the "second choice" polls have most of Bernie's supporters going to Biden but that has to be name recognition only and thus "soft support."

His exit would benefit Warren the most.

woodtoo · 09-13-2019, 10:29 AM

I could only listen for one hour (boring) so....the song remains the same. No solid choice.

jimmyb · 09-13-2019, 03:16 PM

They should all get Participation Trophies.

elysiantraveller · 09-13-2019, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmyb

They should all get Participation Trophies.

I think its interesting...

I've made it clear I think Biden retakes the swings and wins the general quite comfortably. He picks up those votes that cost Clinton with the same ease he puts a vinyl on the record player.

Warren IMO is the only other candidate with a realistic chance at the nomination and while I think her odds are worse than Biden it sets up a more interesting election.

It's certainly a base v. base election and while I think she runs up the numerical advantage she has electoral college headwinds that Biden doesn't have to contend with.

What is really interesting about a Warren nominee though is she is a left-wing populist to Trump's right-wing populism. Trump's is focused around a culture war whereas Warren's is a class war. Also, you'll find that lots of far lefties like some of Trump's policies and far righties like some of Warren/Bernie's.

These people are populists... the question is which flavor do they prefer more... and who is going to move more from one column to the other in the event Warren is the nominee?

Tom · 09-13-2019, 04:17 PM

Did anyone tally up the cost of all the BS crap they promised last night?
Is there a computer strong enough and fast enough to do that job?

Saratoga_Mike · 09-13-2019, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by elysiantraveller

Biden should lead in the delegate count after romping in South Carolina.

Even after 2nd and 3rd place finishes in Iowa and NH respectively.

A decent attempt at projecting delegate counts....

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democra...round-tracker/

Biden with a plurality, not a majority. If Sanders stays in the race until the end, he could be king maker, sorry, queen maker, as he isn't coronating Biden. If Sanders drops out, I believe more of his voters move to Warren than Biden, regardless of what 2nd-choice polling might say now. Biden needs to up his game!