Interesting article by Beyer

[fmhealth]

The comments are compelling as well.

http://www.drf.com/news/andrew-beyer...nsive-pot-gold

[DeltaLover]

Andy Beyer remains the best handicapper and ambassador of the game by a wide margin.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Andy Beyer remains the best handicapper and ambassador of the game by a wide margin.

Andy Beyer is the VOICE of the American horseplayer.

He is the game's greatest ambassador...and the only journalist with the integrity and the guts to address the game's most controversial issues.

[jasperson]

If I wait until the Rainbow pick 6 is over $1000,000 to start my play why should I worry about those suckers that paid the 52% take out before I started my bets?

[Robert Goren]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

Andy Beyer remains the best handicapper and ambassador of the game by a wide margin.

I am not so sure about the best handicapper part, but he is a great ambassador for the game. I have never understood why TV broadcasts of the triple crown races and the breeder's cup don't use him.

[Capper Al]

Good article. Thanks.

The bet looks like fun for a dime.

[DeltaLover]

Rob, take it just as a title of honor ! He was way ahead of his time when in his peak, so he deserves some praising!

[burnsy]

the economist is right. they should listen to him, its the dime increment. forget about putting 100 or 300 into it, people hit it putting 12 dollars into the thing. when people can win 500, 1200 or thousands for a few bucks its very attractive regaurdless of the big "dream" jackpot. we hit one a couple weeks ago putting 12 bucks in and the thing paid almost 600. the pool is big so even when some logical horses win its been paying well for peanuts in bets. as for the takeout, if you don't go overboard......who cares? thats what the big players don't understand. people can play lowball tickets to get huge odds in return. if you are playing this thing really seriously with big money, you are a nut. the bottom line is for very little money you can see a return of odds that are thousands to one, all for the price of a few coffees and a donut. thats why its not dying. who cares about take out when you are risking chump change? these days you piss away almost 10 bucks for a hard copy of the racing form. once you hit it once or twice (the consulation prize) you can play with that money for months. we play the thing like twice a week for very little money. my friends wife gives us names and numbers to throw in just in case we have a shot in the open races for glory. but we stick to the logical horses too. its not a bet that you "chase" with money, if you do you are pretty much a moron. some fool got into an argument with me when he put almost 800 into it. he actually hit it for 1100 and thought he was a genius because it paid more than the parlay. the bottom line is he risked 800 to make 300 which to me is a dumb proposition on ANY exotic bet. if you put that kind of money in....for this bet....you deserve to lose 52%. but if you are playing 12 dollar and 24 dollar tickets, twice a week, to chance a big ROI......who cares? People are bitching about the carry over and the million dollars out of circulation......that money is probably split up between thousands of bettors and people like us that take "chump change" shots at the thing.......its probably generated double that in hype and talk for the track. people bitching about it probably just bring more attention to it because i don't think the bet is dying at all. most people just throw their dimes in a jar these days, if they can take some of them and turn them into real money....that bet will never die with the pools they are getting.

[Gallop58]

This bet highlights some of the complexities of the game.
Takeout rate, minimum bet sizing, carryovers, pool size, perceptions of value.
I would venture to guess that the casual and $2 bettor has fun playing it, the informed die hard doesn't like the theoretical idea of it but plays it anyway because he's a gambler at heart not an investor. The pros who try/can make a living rail against the whole premise and focus on all the reasons it shouldn't work (Beyer) and the whales don't touch it until the math comes out right from their quant built mainframes.
The 52% takeout is a bit of a disengenuous and inflammatory statement. The takeout is 20%. The carryover is aggressive to build pool size. To call the carryover takeout is just stirring the pot. It is not supposed to appeal to the "serious" player. It's supposed to appeal to the guy who wants to take a shot.
Serious players should be on their knees thanking the heavens that there's something going on that excites casual players into seeding the pools in exchange for excitement and enjoyment. I'd guess that this wager has more ability to drive increased conventional handle than any attempt to lure slot/poker players to bet on the races.
You can't have a healthy ecosystem when the whales eat the sharks and the fish were all eaten 20 years ago...

My 10 cents...

[Robert Goren]

It will interesting to see if there is a spike in tne other pools, now that this thing has hit the million mark. Today is not true test because of AQU being dark. Tomorrow, friday and saturday should tell more of the story.

[Gallop58]

Originally Posted by Gallop58

I'd guess that this wager has more ability to drive increased conventional handle than any attempt to lure slot/poker players to bet on the races.

What's seems interesting is that I'd guess that the buzz of a million dollars, even with the difficulty and lottery like math involved, will actually get some of the poker guys to wander over and drop some play money down, or the slot player might actually find the other part of the facility to ask " I don't normally bet horses, but how do I get a ticket for that million dollar thing?"
Is that long term, industry building "stickiness" and player conversion, probably not, but it sure doesn't chase them away.
The "pros" will argue that if people would just focus on lowering the takeout and forget about the gimmicks all will be sunshine and roses. Ain't gonna happen.
A multi-pronged approach is called for.
Now I'm in for 20 cents...

[1st time lasix]

All these "jackpot" carryovers are a simply terrible play.... and I will only venture in on the last day with a forced payout. The little guy is much better off going after a pick five or pick six carryover using a couple singles. Even pooling his resources with others to go after a sequence that will payout the entire pool if hit. I once caught a small carryover pick six at Hawthorne that paid me 6 k for a lousy twelve bucks! The game is hard enough and the risks are high...why play a fool's wager? You have to have a sequence of long shots that actually come in to get compensated from the consolation. All improbable shots in at least four races now to even have a chance at the whole prize. Better off playing doubles or pick three with that type. Of course.... i don't play lotto either...but each year i have meaningful gambling winnings to declare to the IRS. If someone considers it just fun- pure gambling....I recommend .10 supers with bombs in the one or two hole in big fields for action. Just me.....

[burnsy]

[Now I'm in for 20 cents...[/QUOTE]
No, it won't make "converts" overnight....but you are onto something that horse racing can't understand or wants to swallow...its basic econoimics. supply and demand. the slots love their penny players. there are tons of penny and nickle machines at EVERY casino. yes, they have 5 dollar and 25 dollar spins too. but they understand the people that want to "take a chance" with no strings attached....racing does not get this. in this society most people don't have the desire, skill or time to dope out the racing form...they could give crap. but give them low increments to wager with a chance to win big odds and they are all over it. make some of the bets as simple as picking numbers or names and then its only a dime or 50 cents and the person that knows diddley about racing may bet. they could give a damn what take out even means when they are risking small money for a big pay out...or any payout at all. i mean when you hit at those machines many times its 20 to 1000 credits....which in pennies is 20 cents to 10 dollars....but young people, old people and many women love that crap. do you hear slot players talking about take out even though you know its a huge amount? they hardly ever think about it, if at all. these people don't even care to do the math...they want to gamble at low stakes....why not let them? the "country club" attitude will get you no where, especially when the other gambling outlets are already eating you for lunch...people love the slots, the scratchies and the lotto tickets and horse racing is still like 20 years behind them. then they have the nerve to complain about the dime bet when penny and nickle bets are making casinos a fortune. its playing a number for crying out loud....look how much the numbers pull in here in NY...they do it twice a day now...so dumb. they don't understand gambling and MOST gamblers...walk around the "penny" machines for about 10 minutes, or any corner store that sells lotto and scratchies...when the last time they complained about participation?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by 1st time lasix

All these "jackpot" carryovers are a simply terrible play.... and I will only venture in on the last day with a forced payout. The little guy is much better off going after a pick five or pick six carryover using a couple singles. Even pooling his resources with others to go after a sequence that will payout the entire pool if hit. I once caught a small carryover pick six at Hawthorne that paid me 6 k for a lousy twelve bucks! The game is hard enough and the risks are high...why play a fool's wager? You have to have a sequence of long shots that actually come in to get compensated from the consolation. All improbable shots in at least four races now to even have a chance at the whole prize. Better off playing doubles or pick three with that type. Of course.... i don't play lotto either...but each year i have meaningful gambling winnings to declare to the IRS. If someone considers it just fun- pure gambling....I recommend .10 supers with bombs in the one or two hole in big fields for action. Just me.....

i chased the thing twice already, both on saturdays. i hit the thing both times on $120 plays. i don't plan on playing it until the last 2 days of the meet. i doubt that only 1 person will hit it now no matter what the sequence is. if i was the house (gulfstream park) i would play it myself to make sure that more than 1 person hits it. if no one hits this thing in the next week i expect to see $2 million a day pumped into this bet. this bet has capabilities of being like a lottery jackpot. by the time this thing gets hit, it has the potential of cleaning out half the horse players of north america.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Gallop58

This bet highlights some of the complexities of the game.
Takeout rate, minimum bet sizing, carryovers, pool size, perceptions of value.
I would venture to guess that the casual and $2 bettor has fun playing it, the informed die hard doesn't like the theoretical idea of it but plays it anyway because he's a gambler at heart not an investor. The pros who try/can make a living rail against the whole premise and focus on all the reasons it shouldn't work (Beyer) and the whales don't touch it until the math comes out right from their quant built mainframes.
The 52% takeout is a bit of a disengenuous and inflammatory statement. The takeout is 20%. The carryover is aggressive to build pool size. To call the carryover takeout is just stirring the pot. It is not supposed to appeal to the "serious" player. It's supposed to appeal to the guy who wants to take a shot.
Serious players should be on their knees thanking the heavens that there's something going on that excites casual players into seeding the pools in exchange for excitement and enjoyment. I'd guess that this wager has more ability to drive increased conventional handle than any attempt to lure slot/poker players to bet on the races.
You can't have a healthy ecosystem when the whales eat the sharks and the fish were all eaten 20 years ago...

My 10 cents...

It's not "stirring the pot" when it's a fact that the takeout is, in effect, 52 percent unless you are the one person lucky enough to hit on a day no one else does. I think Beyer's article made solid points about how it's a bad bet, as it is one of the worst bets in racing as far as money invested versus money returned (except if it carries over to the last day of the meet and then they have to pay it out). Whether or not it excites casual bettors and attracts them to the game, it's a bit early to say that is happening. One thing in its favor---the lottery has a similar takeout, and there are millions of people who throw money into that on a daily basis. So, hey, you never know---maybe this bet will revive the game.