Dornoch or Track Phantom?

[five-eighths]

If you had to pick only ONE of these two 20-1 front runners to use in your wagers which would you choose?

Dornoch
Track Phantom

[Aerocraft67]

Wow, that is a tossup. Gave the edge to Track Phantom for the superior post, early speed edge, and maybe a class edge.

Probably won't be using them. They're not hard tosses like the higher-odds entries, but hanging around with a "meh" tier of 20-1 peers Mystic Dan, Honor Marie, and Resilience. I like the other 20-1s a little better (Just Steel, Encino, Stronghold).

[f2tornado]

I don't like either. TP is a proven fader and Dornoch has the same speed figures that simply are not good enough to win this race barring some drastic improvement. If I had to pick one or the other then I'd take Dornoch. He's 4th on the Brisnet Prime Power, and for some reason that index has done relatively well forecasting recent Derby results. Further, while he draws the dreaded rail, he's got some of the best early foot in the field to take advantage of it and save lots of ground. I also like seeing Raise A Native in the sire line. One final note is the horse has not been passed by more than a head in all starts. That's a fighter. I'd be shocked if he won, but would not be shocked if he hung on for dear life for a minor award. Both horses have very competent pilots. One notable advantage for TP is a never missing the money in three starts at the track. I'm not convinced he's fast enough to get in a good position early. For an E8 type horse, he didn't post very fast splits in the last two outings. I'm inclined to think the connections should have considered the shorter Preakness that is seemingly more more kind to horses throwing down 24 and change quarter splits.

[Maximillion]

When I look at the whole picture with Dornoch there are some things that I like

He is going to have to improve but I think he can.I expect him to be on or near the lead as most do....but that's not the key for me.I don't think you steal the KD...you have to be pretty good. I think he has the potential to be and is my pick for this.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by five-eighths

If you had to pick only ONE of these two 20-1 front runners to use in your wagers which would you choose?

Dornoch
Track Phantom

Neither one will be anywhere at the finish but since you are making us choose, it would be Dornoch. Track Phantom will be done by the top of the stretch without the lead.

[MJC922]

To me Dornoch is the more talented between the two. I see Dornoch going right to the front from the rail and leading this event as far as he can take them with Track Phantom getting burned up chasing him. Just a Touch, Fierceness and Epic Ride should make up the rest of the first flight unless the Japanese are in the early mix too. I see pace, I see this being a 45 half and if someone moves early into the turn after posting that half and forces everyone to take one more deep breath at the 3/4 before hitting the gas pedal again with a full half mile remaining they're going to want to look over their right shoulder at the quarter pole because something way out wide should be spotted moving like a car as Harvey liked to say.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by MJC922

To me Dornoch is the more talented between the two. I see Dornoch going right to the front from the rail and leading this event as far as he can take them with Track Phantom getting burned up chasing him. Just a Touch, Fierceness and Epic Ride should make up the rest of the first flight unless the Japanese are in the early mix too. I see pace, I see this being a 45 half and if someone moves early into the turn after posting that half and forces everyone to take one more deep breath at the 3/4 before hitting the gas pedal again with a full half mile remaining they're going to want to look over their right shoulder at the quarter pole because something way out wide should be spotted moving like a car as Harvey liked to say.

Sorry, there isn't going to be a very fast pace, Dornoch and Track Phantom aren't that fast. If you are going to run a 45 and change why bother being in the race?

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by zico20

Sorry, there isn't going to be a very fast pace, Dornoch and Track Phantom aren't that fast. If you are going to run a 45 and change why bother being in the race?

Spend a Buck says hello. I have four horses with pace figures just as good as last years speed horses and they went 45-4/5 last year with three horses within a length. Dornoch is very fast early IMO. He rated last time, he was wrangled back early heading into the turn. I believe if they let him roll early he's going be hell to pay for anyone chasing him in that first flight. Anyway a half in 46 works for me, 47 and I can probably tear up my tickets.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by zico20

Sorry, there isn't going to be a very fast pace, Dornoch and Track Phantom aren't that fast. If you are going to run a 45 and change why bother being in the race?

In the points era, here are the splits, eventual winner, and position at 2nd call:

2013: :45.33, 1:09.80 (Orb - 16th)
2014: :47.37, 1:11.80 (California Chrome - 3rd)
2015: :47.34, 1:11.29 (American Pharoah - 3rd)
2016: :45.72, 1:10.40 (Nyquist - 3rd)
2017: :46.53, 1:11.12 (Always Dreaming - 1st)
2018: :45.77, 1:11.11 (Justify - 2nd)
2019: :46.62, 1:12.50 (Maximum Security - 1st(DQ) Country House (9th))
2020: :46.41, 1:10.23 (Authentic - 1st)
2021: :46.24, 1:11.21 (Medina Spirit - 1st)
2022: :45.36, 1:10.34 (Rich Strike - 18th)
2023: :45.73, 1:10.11 (Mage - 16th)

A sub-:46 definitely seems to be the 'breaking point' although Nyquist was able to run on. Last two years have been absolute meltdowns in races that didn't look to have a ton of speed, but ended up in complete pace collapses.

2022 was set up by the Japanese contingent in Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride blitzing to the front and carrying Zozos, Messier, Cyberknife, Taiba, and Charge It in their wake to nowhereville.

2023 was set up by Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Reincarnate blazing out early ridiculous fractions. Not sure I'd call any of those 'blazers' before last year's Derby.

This year? Dornoch draws the 1 hole, trainer Danny Gargan says they are full send. He was part of the :46.2 and 1:10.4 pace in the Bluegrass. Just a Touch was also part of those early fractions, and held on for 2nd. Track Phantom is definitely a need the lead type, but was part of the pedestrian fractions in the Fair Grounds derby preps which were never faster than :48 early. So he is similar to Kingsbarns who was a front runner last year, but had really never ran fast splits till Derby day.

Fierceness got easy fractions in the Florida Derby of :47.2 and was able to walk on the front. Then you also have Stronghold and Resilience and Epic Ride to his immediate outside that all will likely want to be at least somewhat forwardly placed and not caught 6 to 8 wide which is absolute death in the 1st turn. And who knows where the Japan contingent will look to sit? Afterall, they blew up the 2022 pace meltdown.

So, the elements are there, as they always are in the Kentucky Derby for a cooking pace. I have little doubt we'll be sub-:47. I'm sensing :45.4 to :46.4 early, and the answer to that full second 'spread' is likely the question we all somewhat need to answer. Fierceness is truly the only horse in the field that fits the profile of the 2014-2021 Derby winners. Question is if he is that good, and if he can sit 3rd to 5th early amid traffic in sub :47 splits and come out on top. And to top it all off, we'll likely have an off track.

[rastajenk]

Excellent analysis. If I hear someone on TV this weekend get down into those weeds, I'll know he read it here first.

Many years the leader at the eighth pole is the eventual winner, or the winner is just then zooming past pacesetters and traffic. I just think the deep closers are going to have way too much to do if Fierceness stays ahead of most of the field into the second turn, passes cheaper speed on the turn and gets to the lead coming into the stretch(which the Beyers suggest is extremely possible ). Much of the field is gassed by then anyway and causing traffic problems for others. Even more so if it's muddy.

The race will be for place, ceteris paribus.

[Aerocraft67]

Well this thread just got a whole lot more interesting.

Ample early runners and reasons to send. But even if they're able, running the half faster than :46 would mutually ensure destruction.

All it takes is one, though, right? Is, say, West Saratoga going to hang back and rely on his late kick?

Dornoch has no speed to his near outside, the shortest run to the clubhouse turn, and the inclination to send. Can he fend the others off wide and get the best of it into the backstretch?

If he runs reasonable fractions, the trackers will have enough left to run him down. Or someone moves early into the far turn and draws them into a grueling final half.

Seems more likely than not the pace is too fast for many, if not a certified meltdown. Also seems likely Fierceness endures some kind of trouble in the proceedings.

If anything, I feel a little more comfortable relying on someone other than the obvious closers. Or maybe I'm just fitting the narrative to clever picks.

[boys at tosconova]

dornock's last race wasn't very good and was beaten soundly.

maybe he neded the lead or maybe he's not classy enough.

he did beat sierra in the remsen and he's getting mileage from that.

thing is he hasn't faced many good horses until his last race which was lackluster.

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

In the points era, here are the splits, eventual winner, and position at 2nd call:

2013: :45.33, 1:09.80 (Orb - 16th)
2014: :47.37, 1:11.80 (California Chrome - 3rd)
2015: :47.34, 1:11.29 (American Pharoah - 3rd)
2016: :45.72, 1:10.40 (Nyquist - 3rd)
2017: :46.53, 1:11.12 (Always Dreaming - 1st)
2018: :45.77, 1:11.11 (Justify - 2nd)
2019: :46.62, 1:12.50 (Maximum Security - 1st(DQ) Country House (9th))
2020: :46.41, 1:10.23 (Authentic - 1st)
2021: :46.24, 1:11.21 (Medina Spirit - 1st)
2022: :45.36, 1:10.34 (Rich Strike - 18th)
2023: :45.73, 1:10.11 (Mage - 16th)

A sub-:46 definitely seems to be the 'breaking point' although Nyquist was able to run on. Last two years have been absolute meltdowns in races that didn't look to have a ton of speed, but ended up in complete pace collapses.

2022 was set up by the Japanese contingent in Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride blitzing to the front and carrying Zozos, Messier, Cyberknife, Taiba, and Charge It in their wake to nowhereville.

2023 was set up by Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Reincarnate blazing out early ridiculous fractions. Not sure I'd call any of those 'blazers' before last year's Derby.

This year? Dornoch draws the 1 hole, trainer Danny Gargan says they are full send. He was part of the :46.2 and 1:10.4 pace in the Bluegrass. Just a Touch was also part of those early fractions, and held on for 2nd. Track Phantom is definitely a need the lead type, but was part of the pedestrian fractions in the Fair Grounds derby preps which were never faster than :48 early. So he is similar to Kingsbarns who was a front runner last year, but had really never ran fast splits till Derby day.

Fierceness got easy fractions in the Florida Derby of :47.2 and was able to walk on the front. Then you also have Stronghold and Resilience and Epic Ride to his immediate outside that all will likely want to be at least somewhat forwardly placed and not caught 6 to 8 wide which is absolute death in the 1st turn. And who knows where the Japan contingent will look to sit? Afterall, they blew up the 2022 pace meltdown.

So, the elements are there, as they always are in the Kentucky Derby for a cooking pace. I have little doubt we'll be sub-:47. I'm sensing :45.4 to :46.4 early, and the answer to that full second 'spread' is likely the question we all somewhat need to answer. Fierceness is truly the only horse in the field that fits the profile of the 2014-2021 Derby winners. Question is if he is that good, and if he can sit 3rd to 5th early amid traffic in sub :47 splits and come out on top. And to top it all off, we'll likely have an off track.

now plz do the same for 2nd and 3rd finishers

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

now plz do the same for 2nd and 3rd finishers

2013 became completely inverted: Orb (16th), Golden Soul (15th), Revolutionary (18th).

2014: Chrome (3rd), Commanding Curve (18th), Danza (9th)

2015: Pharoah (3rd), Firing Line (2nd), Dortmund (1st), Frosted (15th) in one of the chalkiest Supers in recent Derby history.

2016: Nyquist (3rd), Exaggerator (15th), Gun Runner (2nd)

2017: Always Dreaming (2nd), Lookin' at Lee (16th), Battle of Midway (3rd)

2018: Justify (2nd), Good Magic (5th), Audible (10th)

2019: Max Security (1st), Country House (8th), Code of Honor (9th)

2020: Authentic (1st) Tiz the Law (3rd), Mr Big News (10th)

2021: Medina Spirt (1st), Mandaloun (3rd), Hot Rod Charlie (5th)

2022: Rich Strike (18th), Epicenter (8th), Zandon (11th)

2023: Mage (16th), Two Phil's (4th), Angel of Empire (15th)

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

In the points era, here are the splits, eventual winner, and position at 2nd call:

2022: :45.36, 1:10.34 (Rich Strike - 18th)
2023: :45.73, 1:10.11 (Mage - 16th)

2022 was set up by the Japanese contingent in Summer Is Tomorrow and Crown Pride blitzing to the front and carrying Zozos, Messier, Cyberknife, Taiba, and Charge It in their wake to nowhereville.

2023 was set up by Verifying, Kingsbarns, and Reincarnate blazing out early ridiculous fractions. Not sure I'd call any of those 'blazers' before last year's Derby.

So, the elements are there, as they always are in the Kentucky Derby for a cooking pace. I have little doubt we'll be sub-:47. I'm sensing :45.4 to :46.4 early, and the answer to that full second 'spread' is likely the question we all somewhat need to answer. Fierceness is truly the only horse in the field that fits the profile of the 2014-2021 Derby winners. Question is if he is that good, and if he can sit 3rd to 5th early amid traffic in sub :47 splits and come out on top. And to top it all off, we'll likely have an off track.

2022 had 6 horses gaining or running relatively evenly the final split.
2023 had a single horse gaining and 1 running relatively evenly, with the 'field' backing up significantly more than 2022.

In each case the 'breaking point' seems to be at 8F.