San Felipe Stakes $300,000

[redshift1]

San Felipe S (gr. II), $300,000g, 3yo, 8.5f.140.11

Saturday March 10th

140.11 Stakes record by Consolidator 2005

Shapes up as the best prep so far in 2012 even with the loss of Out Of Bounds.

Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon and Liaison are all in top 15 of graded stakes earnings for the KD

Baffert has multiple entries including Fed Biz and Bodiemeister both making their stakes debut.


Probables:

American Act
Bodemeister
Blingo
Creative Cause
Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Fed Biz
Empire Way
Midnight Transfer


.

[Spalding No!]

Actually, it looks like a rehash of both the Hollywood Futurity and the Robert Lewis, two of the more seemingly mediocre races impacting this year's Triple Crown.

Blingo looks to be this year's Mr. Commons. That's to say a turf horse who will waste the first half of the year on the dirt, then will romp in a low-level stakes race upon his return to the grass, then will hit a ceiling in graded turf stakes, all the while maintaining a bloated reputation as some top American turf horse just waiting for his coming out party.

[The WindfallAngler]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

the Hollywood Futurity...mediocre...impacting this year's Triple Crown.

Oh, I dunno. Seems like more than a few prodigies found their legs in this venue, who would later account for various Kentucky Derbies, Preaknesses; even a few Horses of The Year.

Lookin at Lucky, '09; Declan's Moon, '04 (2nd? Giacomo); Point Given,'00; Real Quiet, '97; A.P. Indy, '91; Alysheba 2nd, '86; Snow Chief in '85 (Ferdinand 3rd), going back to Roving Boy--may God rest his broken bones--a divisional champ in '82, only a year after the Stakes rolled out.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by The WindfallAngler

Oh, I dunno. Seems like more than a few prodigies found their legs in this venue, who would later account for various Kentucky Derbies, Preaknesses; even a few Horses of The Year.

Lookin at Lucky, '09; Declan's Moon, '04 (2nd? Giacomo); Point Given,'00; Real Quiet, '97; A.P. Indy, '91; Alysheba 2nd, '86; Snow Chief in '85 (Ferdinand 3rd), going back to Roving Boy--may God rest his broken bones--a divisional champ in '82, only a year after the Stakes rolled out.

I was talking about the 2011 edition specifically.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by redshift1

San Felipe S (gr. II), $300,000g, 3yo, 8.5f.140.11
Saturday March 10th

140.11 Stakes record by Consolidator 2005

Shapes up as the best prep so far in 2012 even with the loss of Out Of Bounds.

Creative Cause, Rousing Sermon and Liaison are all in top 15 of graded stakes earnings for the KD
Baffert has multiple entries including Fed Biz and Bodiemeister both making their stakes debut.

Probables:

American Act
Bodemeister
Blingo
Creative Cause
Liaison
Rousing Sermon
Fed Biz
Empire Way
Midnight Transfer

.

Thanks for the entries, this looks like a good one. I checked for the past performances - not in yet. Looking forward to the past performances.

Nothin' like the Derby Trail. Lookin' forward to the San Felipe.

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Actually, it looks like a rehash of both the Hollywood Futurity and the Robert Lewis, two of the more seemingly mediocre races impacting this year's Triple Crown.

Only 2 or 3 are returning from the Robert B Lewis.

BodieMeister and Fed Biz make their stakes debut off 97 & 99 Beyers.

Two Grade 1 winners in Creative Cause and Liaison.

and

You're fixated on Blingo?


.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by redshift1

Only 2 or 3 are returning from the Robert B Lewis.

3 from the Lewis, 4 from the CashCall Futurity; a significant portion of the field. Both those races, while certainly contentious on paper, ended up fairly mediocre when actually run. About 2 lengths separated the first 7 or 8 home in the Cashcall, and the Lewis was won by a 40-1 shot coming off a 6 month layoff while making his 3yo and route debut.

BodieMeister and Fed Biz make their stakes debut off 97 & 99 Beyers.

The key point is that they are making their respective stakes debuts (maybe...it remains to be seen if both start). They have yet to validate any hype surrounding them.

Two Grade 1 winners in Creative Cause and Liaison.

Creative Cause, after being all but confirmed for the race last week, is suddenly on the fence after a blazing workout. Not a good sign. In fact, his stablemate Empire Way is now a definite starter for the race. Previously, Mike Harrington suggested he'd show up in the Rebel at Oaklawn next.

You're fixated on Blingo?

That was meant to be a digression.

[redshift1]

Well, here's what to like about the San Felipe:

Some of the top sires:

Empire Maker (2)
Creative Cause (2)
Indian Charlie (1)
Hard Spun (1)

High priced yearlings:

$950,000
$260,000
$250,000 Full brother to Royal Delta
$260,000

Two grade 1 winners

Obviously the highest rated 3 year olds are currently based on the east coast but the San Felipe has some depth where the other preps appeared relatively thin in range of ability.



.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by redshift1

Obviously the highest rated 3 year olds are currently based on the east coast but the San Felipe has some depth where the other preps appeared relatively thin in range of ability.

You're getting way ahead of yourself. You keep listing the San Felipe probables as though it is the drawn field. Bob Baffert has 3 possible and has stated that only 2 will show up. Mike Harrington is likely to run only one of his runners. And anything can happen up until race time. Wasn't the Fountain Of Youth supposed to pit Union Rags against Algorithms? This race has already lost Out Of Bounds, and it will likely lose 2 more.

[surfdog89]

Rousing Sermon......like this one as a two year old.....Road to the derby.....if he runs big this week-end.....

[Spalding No!]

I'm backpedaling on this one. When Harrington flip-flopped on Creative Cause after a fast workout last week, I expected the worse. But the horse worked very strongly again today, and now he's definite for the San Felipe. Considering his solid if unspectacular try in the 7f stakes and the sudden "wake up" in his workouts, it's safe to say that Creative Cause is moving forward. Also taking into account the sudden productivity of the BC Juvenile (Hansen, Union Rags, Alpha), Creative Cause is going to take some beating in this race.

Unless Fed Biz proves to have Congaree-type ability, he has a tall order on tap to beat a horse of Creative Cause's ability and foundation.

[NJ Stinks]

I thought Sabercat was going in the San Felipe but now I hear he might go in the Rebel instead.

At any rate, I believe Sabercat just worked at Santa Anita so I don't get the indecision. Unless the connections believe another week of prep is needed. Anybody else hear anything about Sabercat's status in the San Felipe?

[redshift1]

Originally Posted by NJ Stinks

I thought Sabercat was going in the San Felipe but now I hear he might go in the Rebel instead.

At any rate, I believe Sabercat just worked at Santa Anita so I don't get the indecision. Unless the connections believe another week of prep is needed. Anybody else hear anything about Sabercat's status in the San Felipe?

"Scott Blasi, assistant to Steve Asmussen added that he thinks Asmussen is "leaning towards the (Grade 2) Rebel" at Oaklawn Park on March 17."


The Rebel might be an easier spot but that's just a guess at this point

[NJ Stinks]

Originally Posted by redshift1

"Scott Blasi, assistant to Steve Asmussen added that he thinks Asmussen is "leaning towards the (Grade 2) Rebel" at Oaklawn Park on March 17."


The Rebel might be an easier spot but that's just a guess at this point

Thanks, Redshift1.

[bks]

Fed Biz is out. Tied up.

Really wanted to see what he could do against stakes horses. Hope all is well with him.

B