New Product Poll: Percentages & Probabilities

[Dave Schwartz]

I am in the process of completing Percentages & Probabilities, 2010. Before I put more time into this project I want to make sure there is a market for it. (Perhaps this is a little late since it is already 238 pages, but better late than never.)

My question is: "Does anyone really want a serious work like this?" Cost will be around $85.


Here is a partial table of contents:




Here are a couple of sample pages:

[Dave Schwartz]

Please feel free to ask questions or suggest things/factors you'd like to see in this book.


The book is actually more like Quirin's Winning at the Races than Davis' Percentages & Probabilities. However, like the original P&P, it comes with systems for every kind of race.


Dave

[Overlay]

I would prefer data without comment, interpretation, or application (other than an explanation of abbreviations, and of how metrics were derived), as in Nunamaker's Modern Impact Values. I would also like to see sub-groupings similar to Nunamaker's with respect to age, sex, distance (or distance category (i.e., sprint/route)), and (especially) running surface (including artificial surfaces). Utilizing Quirin's/Nunamaker's categories (or as many as are still available/applicable) (including Quirin factors that Nunamaker omitted, such as jockey groupings) would also allow comparison of how the effectiveness of individual metrics has changed over time.

[banacek]

Will this data be separated by tracks or just all the tracks together? I love this kind of stuff, but if it mixes Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Keenland, etc all together, I'm not sure if I would be interested.

[Tom]

"Does anyone really want a serious work like this?"


Yes.

[Dave Schwartz]

Banacek & Overlay,

Some of it is by track, some is not. If the whole thing was by track it would be 2,000 pages.

Consider the original P&P. He highlighted a few factors, produced an IV Table and a short commentary. At the end there were systems.

Essentially, I have begun by creating 18 systems, each representing a type of race. The path through the book is to decide which factors are the best representation for each system.

Beginning with speed, it contains many tables showing why I decided upon a particular factor. We consider top rank, top two ranks, and the rear-half of the field, looking for the widest differences in $Nets and IVs.

Overlay, I know you would prefer pure data but not everyone wants that. I think most people want me to tell them what I found but show them the actual tables so that they may verify for themselves.


Dave

[Ghostrider5]

Hey Dave are these systems like spot plays? If not what are these systems based on.



Ghostrider5

[Dave Schwartz]

Systems are designed to rate all horses, determining a "probability."

[PhantomOnTour]

I can't speak for others, but at my current level of play, a book like this is what I'm looking for....statistics! I don't need a 'how to' book.

Question: when you say 'top rated' you are referring to your ratings/numbers, correct? Must one be a customer/subscriber to your pars or figs to understand what's in the book?

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience is that speed ratings are highly similar to each other. The Beyer number, while being different than a par-based number, is still a speed rating. So is the BRIS number.

They all (BRIS, Beyer, par-based) have different characteristics but are, for all intents and purposes, interchangeable. This will not be true in a given race but over a large sample.

The Beyer number will get a few more winners but produce a lower mutuel. Par-based numbers will produce a few less winners but with a higher mutuel.

BTW, the plan is to include a set of 2010 HorseStreet Track Pars with the book.

[Dave Schwartz]

One issue I am struggling with... The cost to print and ship a 400-page, 8.5" x 11" book is huge. It is probably $22 to print and $12-14 to ship.

What are your thoughts on this as an e-book?


Dave

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

One issue I am struggling with... The cost to print and ship a 400-page, 8.5" x 11" book is huge. It is probably $22 to print and $12-14 to ship.

What are your thoughts on this as an e-book?

I'm excited that this project has neared the top of the pile. I've been looking forward to it for almost two years.

I think an e-book sounds like a perfect solution. Or, make it available both ways. Those who feel they really have to have a paper copy can pay the extra printing and shipping costs. I really don't need another 400 page book on my shelves.

Dick..

[Tom]

e book!

[punteray]

E-BOOK

punteray

[ceejay]

I voted 25% because the likelihood is 0% if only hard copy is available and 50% if E-BOOK.