Five Reasons Why We Will Never See A Triple Crown Winner in Our Lifetime

[RacingFan1992]

I have gone through the past performances of all of the Triple Crown winners and have found the five factors: Start date of 2 year old career, End date of 2 year old career, 2 year old record, 3 year old career start date, and number of starts in 3 year old career before Kentucky Derby. THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULES. THERE ARE FACTORS SUCH AS FOAL CROP SIZE, FIELD SIZE OF EACH TRIPLE CROWN RACE, AND TRACK CONDITIONS SUCH AS A SLOPPY TRACK THAT ALSO IMPACT THE CHANCE OF A HORSE WINNING THE TRIPLE CROWN.

1.) 2 Year Old Start
Affirmed May 24, 1977
Seattle Slew September 20, 1976
Secretariat July 4, 1972
Citation April 22, 1947
Assault June 4, 1945
Count Fleet June 1, 1942
Whirlaway June 3, 1940
War Admiral April 25, 1936
Omaha June 18, 1934
Gallant Fox June 24, 1929
Sir Barton July 6, 1918

If a horse is destined to win the Triple Crown then the date the horse should start is in April, May, June, and July. The exception is Seattle Slew who started in September. A horse like Smarty Jones broke his maiden in November which in my opinion was way to late to start a career.

2.) 2 Year Old End
Affirmed October 29, 1977
Seattle Slew October 16, 1976
Secretariat November 18, 1972
Citation November 8, 1947
Assault October 8, 1945
Count Fleet November 10, 1942
Whirlaway November 14, 1940
War Admiral October 10, 1936
Omaha September 29, 1934
Gallant Fox September 29, 1929
Sir Barton September 14, 1918

September, October, and November seem to be the best time to rest a racehorse who is in line with winning the Triple Crown. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile could be the last race that horse is raced in and also have complete rest in December and January. California Chrome raced in December and January for a reference.

3.) 2 Year Old Record (Loss/Win)
Affirmed 7/9
Seattle Slew 3/3
Secretariat 7/9
Citation 8/9
Assault 2/9
Count Fleet 10/15
Whirlaway 7/16
War Admiral 3/6
Omaha 1/9
Gallant Fox 2/7
Sir Barton 0/6

The TC winners raced 98 times and only won 50 which is a 51% win rate. The average start for these horses is 9 and only winning 5. Big Brown raced once @ 2, Smarty Jones raced twice @ 2, and all other horses who won two of three TC races (1979-2014) had between 3 and 9 of which only two had 9 starts (1979 and 1998).

4.) 3 Year Old Debut
Affirmed March 8, 1978
Seattle Slew March 9, 1977
Secretariat March 17, 1973
Citation February 2, 1948
Assault April 9, 1946
Count Fleet April 13, 1943
Whirlaway February 8, 1941
War Admiral April 14, 1937
Omaha April 22, 1935
Gallant Fox April 26, 1930
Sir Barton May 10, 1919

February, March, and April are the optimal time to bring back the horse from rest. December and January should never be used to race. California Chrome is one horse that raced in those two months.

5.) 3 Year Old starts before KD or start of TC campaign (Loss/Win)
Affirmed 4/4
Seattle Slew 3/3
Secretariat 2/3
Citation 6/7
Assault 2/3
Count Fleet 2/2
Whirlaway 3/7
War Admiral 2/2
Omaha 1/2
Gallant Fox 1/1 (Preakness Stakes was first leg of TC in 1930)
Sir Barton 0/0 (Kentucky Derby was Sir Barton's first start in 1919)

The win percentage of these 3 Year Old's increased by 25%. Of the 34 starts the horses won 26 of them which translates to about 76%. The average starts before the Derby as a 3 Year Old is 3 and only winning 2.

I was shocked to noticed that so many horses who go for the Triple Crown today are lightly raced. The trainers should not baby these horses. They treat them like they are made of fine bone china and yet they expect them to run like they are made of steel over a five week campaign in three different races.

Overview: If a horse wants to win the Triple Crown, they should start their 2 Year Old career in April, May, June, or July and finish it in September, October, and November with an average of 9 starts with 5 wins. The 3 Year Old career should begin in February, March, and April with 3 starts and winning 2.

Those are my observations. As I have earlier in this essay, there are always exceptions to the rules. Do not attack me because my views differ from yours. I welcome all comments regarding what I am talking about.

[UnionRags]

I agree. If unionrags couldn't win it, no one will going forward.