Sierra Leone

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

The setup of a race is what it is. It doesn't change after horses in a given race have run back. A good or excellent run is just that. Of course, you need to qualify the 'snapshot' for trouble and ground loss.

I agree with you, but when you aren't sure how the race flow impacted the race, the subsequent performances can clarify it.

Let's take the Bluegrass as the example.

If I understood your earlier post in the thread, you think Sierra Leone ran very well because the speed horses did not collapse and he was the only closer to run really well late.

I'm fine with that conclusion, but let's look at another.

The race was loaded with speed, projected to have a fast pace, and the fractions and pace figures (via TimeformUS) were really fast. TimeformUS upgraded most of the horses on or near the lead that day and says Just a Touch ran the best race on their figures.

I'm fine with that conclusion also.

The problem is they are completely opposite conclusions.

Here's my trip notes for the race (not individual horses).

RF-H/CL?; (lot of speed; fast fractions; but flow more honest); PressPts: 21.2 Speeds: 4 Chart: 0.09 Class: 98.61 Beyer Par: 96.2

Forget what that all means, but you can see I have the RF (race flow) as H/CL? That means I'm not 100% sure whether the race flow favored closers or was more honest. Either all those horses on/near the lead ran quite well overcoming those fast fractions and hanging around well or the fast pace I projected and those fast fractions that verify it didn't have the impact on them you'd normally expect.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Forget what that all means, but you can see I have the RF (race flow) as H/CL? That means I'm not 100% sure whether the race flow favored closers or was more honest. Either all those horses on/near the lead ran quite well overcoming those fast fractions and hanging around well or the fast pace I projected and those fast fractions that verify it didn't have the impact on them you'd normally expect.

Just a Touch ran an angle that's proven to be quite fruitful over the years. But Sierra Leone just stands out.

See for yourself. Plot it. Transpose (to row orientation) and set the y-axis max to 16 (for the best possible effect). The lengths are from GPS data and have been converted at .165.

Comma delimited.

Horse,1LC,2LC,3LC,4LC,5LC,6LC,7LC,8LC,FLC
Sierra Leone,8.12121212121212,7.818181818181834,7.8787878 78787861,8.848484848484853,7.757575757575721,7.454 545454545478,5.757575757575775,2.484848484848464,0 .0
Just a Touch,0.6666666666666632,1.1515151515151592,1.2121 212121211862,1.1515151515151807,1.0303030303029976 ,1.3333333333333264,1.2727272727272347,0.0,1.69696 96969697037
Epic Ride,1.1515151515151485,1.5151515151515151,2.24242 42424242267,1.939393939393941,1.6969696969696608,2 .2424242424242697,1.5757575757575206,1.63636363636 36123,5.757575757575775
Dornoch,0.6666666666666632,0.9090909090909219,1.45 45454545454235,1.3333333333333695,1.51515151515151 51,2.060606060606081,2.181818181818178,2.727272727 2726582,7.090909090909101
Mugatu,7.818181818181813,8.484848484848497,8.30303 0303030287,9.09090909090909,6.606060606060583,5.57 5757575757586,4.848484848484831,4.666666666666642, 8.12121212121214
Top Conor,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.72727272727275 48,8.666666666666622
Seize the Grey,3.878787878787882,4.484848484848497,5.5151515 15151494,5.818181818181823,6.303030303030297,8.545 454545454524,9.87878787878785,11.63636363636356,11 .57575757575764
Be You,3.9393939393939412,3.6363636363636447,3.939393 9393939306,4.06060606060607,4.1818181818181674,4.8 48484848484831,5.939393939393963,8.42424242424234, 11.818181818181834
Lat Long,4.727272727272723,4.545454545454545,4.6060606 06060594,6.303030303030341,8.242424242424239,10.48 484848484851,11.33333333333336,12.242424242424217, 15.030303030303054
Good Money,1.6363636363636338,2.6666666666666745,3.6969 696969696932,5.15151515151516,7.15151515151515,13. 393939393939355,19.7575757575757,25.87878787878785 4,41.99999999999995

[classhandicapper]

I can see what you are saying.

I agree that Sierra Leone's performance looks like a standout effort based on the flow of the race as measured this way. My issue is that this doesn't address how the fast fractions/pace may have impacted the horses up front that he closed down or the possibility that the other off the pace horses were just bad that day and that's what makes him look so good relative to them.

I want to be clear that I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying I'm not sure.

To make the point another way, I just listened to a podcast with two horseplayers I consider among the sharpest out there. Both said Sierra Leone got a perfect pace setup in the Blue Grass.

I see both perspectives.

I sort of lean to the race being more or less honestly run, but I will be watching how well Top Conor runs.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Just a Touch ran an angle that's proven to be quite fruitful over the years. But Sierra Leone just stands out.

See for yourself. Plot it. Transpose (to row orientation) and set the y-axis max to 16 (for the best possible effect). The lengths are from GPS data and have been converted at .165.

Comma delimited.

Horse,1LC,2LC,3LC,4LC,5LC,6LC,7LC,8LC,FLC
Sierra Leone,8.12121212121212,7.818181818181834,7.8787878 78787861,8.848484848484853,7.757575757575721,7.454 545454545478,5.757575757575775,2.484848484848464,0 .0
Just a Touch,0.6666666666666632,1.1515151515151592,1.2121 212121211862,1.1515151515151807,1.0303030303029976 ,1.3333333333333264,1.2727272727272347,0.0,1.69696 96969697037
Epic Ride,1.1515151515151485,1.5151515151515151,2.24242 42424242267,1.939393939393941,1.6969696969696608,2 .2424242424242697,1.5757575757575206,1.63636363636 36123,5.757575757575775
Dornoch,0.6666666666666632,0.9090909090909219,1.45 45454545454235,1.3333333333333695,1.51515151515151 51,2.060606060606081,2.181818181818178,2.727272727 2726582,7.090909090909101
Mugatu,7.818181818181813,8.484848484848497,8.30303 0303030287,9.09090909090909,6.606060606060583,5.57 5757575757586,4.848484848484831,4.666666666666642, 8.12121212121214
Top Conor,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.72727272727275 48,8.666666666666622
Seize the Grey,3.878787878787882,4.484848484848497,5.5151515 15151494,5.818181818181823,6.303030303030297,8.545 454545454524,9.87878787878785,11.63636363636356,11 .57575757575764
Be You,3.9393939393939412,3.6363636363636447,3.939393 9393939306,4.06060606060607,4.1818181818181674,4.8 48484848484831,5.939393939393963,8.42424242424234, 11.818181818181834
Lat Long,4.727272727272723,4.545454545454545,4.6060606 06060594,6.303030303030341,8.242424242424239,10.48 484848484851,11.33333333333336,12.242424242424217, 15.030303030303054
Good Money,1.6363636363636338,2.6666666666666745,3.6969 696969696932,5.15151515151516,7.15151515151515,13. 393939393939355,19.7575757575757,25.87878787878785 4,41.99999999999995

I like your thought process in looking to magnify the horse that stands out vs the flow of the race. The issue I have with it is there's a lot of missing information that would add context, for example what if some other horse had closed nearly as well as the winner. Is it now seen as an honest race or still biased to the front in your opinion? I get it, nobody else closed so it's a non-issue, the problem is who else was supposed to close? The only other two sustained runners were Seize the Grey and Mugatu and those two aren't even legit grade three types let alone Grade one. Horses that are way overmatched like that may get overextended trying to keep pace with better horses at various intervals or just simply don't show up on condition. Again the overall idea is good IMO and I have done similar in the past but I don't know how this competes with anyone who brings context to the table, unless like I said you're just flagging horses for follow up (race watching) where you can then bring the necessary context later by examining the quality of the other horses and/or the evidence of the internal fractions.

[zico20]

It is safe to say that if Forever Young hadn't run a big race then Sierra Leone would have won. Tyler didn't use the whip one time. He switched from the right hand to the left but couldn't use it. Look for him to run huge in the Belmont!

[Fightingirish51195]

Think it’s fair to say he ran the “best” race.

That isn’t meant to disparage MD. MD still had to perform. MD looked absolutely gassed in the last few strides though

[classhandicapper]

From listening to various podcasts and from the discussions here and on Twitter, one thing is obvious. Race flow has become a lot like Class Handicapping vs. Speed Handicapping. A lot of horseplayers are locked into their ideas without due consideration for what the other side brings to the table.

That means there's still value out there when one side is making a mistake.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Fun horse.

Not your typical regally bred front-running monster or stalker like American Pharoah, or Justify, or even the great Secretariat.

He has his warts, and he comes from downtown like the amazing Zenyatta giving his fans and backers some thrill and drama every race he runs.

Not only is he a back end closer, he has some paddle action with his right front late in races similar to Vekoma that tends to make him veer in.

I like this crop. Gonna be a fun and interesting finish to the Triple Crown and summer series of 3YO derbies.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From listening to various podcasts and from the discussions here and on Twitter, one thing is obvious. Race flow has become a lot like Class Handicapping vs. Speed Handicapping. A lot of horseplayers are locked into their ideas without due consideration for what the other side brings to the table.

That means there's still value out there when one side is making a mistake.

Pace/speed figures can't really explain races like the Bluegrass or the Holy Bull. In the past, any concerns that the figure didn't capture the flow were just dismissed. Domestic Product should be the poster boy going forward.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

From listening to various podcasts and from the discussions here and on Twitter, one thing is obvious. Race flow has become a lot like Class Handicapping vs. Speed Handicapping. A lot of horseplayers are locked into their ideas without due consideration for what the other side brings to the table.

That means there's still value out there when one side is making a mistake.

I feel there’s something that’s still unanswered about Leone’s race. Did having a horse alongside him to keep him running straigh, help him run fast enough to finish with Forever Young and Mystik Dan. If he’s left to wander around like he usually does is he maybe a fifth slower? That’s the kind of stuff I put weight on handicapping wise that most don’t take into consideration. I would say everyone feels it slowed Sierra Leone. I think it probably slowed Forever Young, but it’s a good possibility it helped Leone.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by bisket

I feel there’s something that’s still unanswered about Leone’s race. Did having a horse alongside him to keep him running straigh, help him run fast enough to finish with Forever Young and Mystik Dan. If he’s left to wander around like he usually does is he maybe a fifth slower? That’s the kind of stuff I put weight on handicapping wise that most don’t take into consideration. I would say everyone feels it slowed Sierra Leone. I think it probably slowed Forever Young, but it’s a good possibility it helped Leone.

Repeatedly bumping into another runner does not help you run faster. The rest is you guessing.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Repeatedly bumping into another runner does not help you run faster. The rest is you guessing.

What’s slower wandering around the track or bumping a rival for an eighth of a mile. Wandering beats chumps like Just a Touch and Track Phantom. It’s still up in the air if it beats grade 1 company.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Pace/speed figures can't really explain races like the Bluegrass or the Holy Bull. In the past, any concerns that the figure didn't capture the flow were just dismissed. Domestic Product should be the poster boy going forward.

To me, the fractions/flow debate is similar to the class/speed debate.

There are strengths and weaknesses to each method. There's no law against looking at both when trying to understand a race better.

One thing I like about Kenny Peck (DRF handicapper and friend of mine) is that he stresses the makeup of the field. He focuses a lot of attention on the number and quality of the speeds in the race before it's even run so he has a better feel for what's likely to happen. That makes it easier to understand what actually did happen after it's run.

It's sort of like class handicapping the flow.

I have a question for you.

Do you differentiate between a race that collapsed because some decent quality horses on the front were used very hard and tired badly and a race that collapsed because all the speeds were low quality horses that tried badly because of their lack of innate ability and not because they were used hard?

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

To me, the fractions/flow debate is similar to the class/speed debate.

There are strengths and weaknesses to each method. There's no law against looking at both when trying to understand a race better.

One thing I like about Kenny Peck (DRF handicapper and friend of mine) is that he stresses the makeup of the field. He focuses a lot of attention on the number and quality of the speeds in the race before it's even run so he has a better feel for what's likely to happen. That makes it easier to understand what actually did happen after it's run.

It's sort of like class handicapping the flow.

I have a question for you.

Do you differentiate between a race that collapsed because some decent quality horses on the front were used very hard and tired badly and a race that collapsed because all the speeds were low quality horses that tried badly because of their lack of innate ability and not because they were used hard?

Had the race pegged at :46.43, 1:10.83 or so. Wasn't far off till the mile split I thought would be 1:36.84 or so.

Wasn't brutally fast, but fast. What I failed upon was the mile split of 1:37.46. The front actually got a bit of a rest, and the best trip possible with the hanging on.

Dornoch not firing out of the gate certainly helped.

Resilience had every reason to run dead last like Just a Touch, but didn't.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Had the race pegged at :46.43, 1:10.83 or so. Wasn't far off till the mile split I thought would be 1:36.84 or so.

Wasn't brutally fast, but fast. What I failed upon was the mile split of 1:37.46. The front actually got a bit of a rest, and the best trip possible with the hanging on.

Dornoch not firing out of the gate certainly helped.

Resilience had every reason to run dead last like Just a Touch, but didn't.

If you chart the race, Resilience is the obvious stickout.

You'll also notice that this year's race fell apart sooner than Mage and Rich Strike's races.

The field was done at 8F, while it didn't happen until 9F for the prior 2 years. Also, this year's race collapsed significantly more than the prior 2 years.