Jonathon Kinchen

[LemonSoupKid]

Interesting this came up, I have seen Kinchen for a couple of years on various P3 or P4 plays on "Out of the Gate," he's got that Kinchen's corner segment. He's never particularly impressed me with a meaningful win in a leg. I'm sure he's scored there, but if Divisidero won and he singled him as 3-1 fav, I don't really need a "handicapper" to tell me that --- I've won far more times and at bigger prices taking stands against those types. Most of the other scores he shot for (like Dabster on Saturday) never hit, and they are rarely any prices over 4-1. Admittedly, there isn't a super high sample here for me to judge him, and I am a multi-race/horizontal player as well (which means I "fail" a lot), but I've done much better than he has at least on big race days in Pick 4 and Pick 6.

For my money, there's no one close to Mike Beer as far as someone I truly feel gives me an insight into a potential I may be missing, or to what degree. He comes with a fairly high winning percentage (for horse racing) and when he hits, quite a few are really good prices.

That brings up the question, what's a good hit rate? I know price is everything but I feel like between Watchmaker, this guy Ellis Starr, and several others, they essentially give me throwouts when I see their picks. Not trying to be a dick either, I can't remember the last time either of those guys actually had a winner in an article I read. Hank Goldberg probably joins those ranks

I must say, I do love horse racing for all of its dimensions, complaints, challenges, mushes, and interesting stories ...

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

Interesting this came up, I have seen Kinchen for a couple of years on various P3 or P4 plays on "Out of the Gate," he's got that Kinchen's corner segment. He's never particularly impressed me with a meaningful win in a leg. I'm sure he's scored there, but if Divisidero won and he singled him as 3-1 fav, I don't really need a "handicapper" to tell me that --- I've won far more times and at bigger prices taking stands against those types. Most of the other scores he shot for (like Dabster on Saturday) never hit, and they are rarely any prices over 4-1. Admittedly, there isn't a super high sample here for me to judge him, and I am a multi-race/horizontal player as well (which means I "fail" a lot), but I've done much better than he has at least on big race days in Pick 4 and Pick 6.

For my money, there's no one close to Mike Beer as far as someone I truly feel gives me an insight into a potential I may be missing, or to what degree. He comes with a fairly high winning percentage (for horse racing) and when he hits, quite a few are really good prices.

That brings up the question, what's a good hit rate? I know price is everything but I feel like between Watchmaker, this guy Ellis Starr, and several others, they essentially give me throwouts when I see their picks. Not trying to be a dick either, I can't remember the last time either of those guys actually had a winner in an article I read. Hank Goldberg probably joins those ranks

I must say, I do love horse racing for all of its dimensions, complaints, challenges, mushes, and interesting stories ...

I would agree, his plays dont exactly inspire much to me...

but the results can not be discounted, he has been one of the better tourney players the past few years. He won the SA contest last week.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I think Ellis Starr is a first rate handicapper. Good guy too.

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.

Luck?

[LemonSoupKid]

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

I used to know all these answers but I do know there is no surcharge if you bet simulcasts on track, unless they've changed things in the past 3 years. It had been that way since 1995, when simulcasting started in Illinois.

[LemonSoupKid]

thanks Valuist

Makes me think I should put in my big horizontals on track, then, no? It's not as hard for me to do that, I just prefer the local or other OTBs from a convenience, size and space point of view.

[LemonSoupKid]

Also, do you guys know how rewards programs work? That is, if you use them are you tracked, or do you just get points for what you wager, regardless? I think you know what I'm asking, would there be any link to cashing a particular ticket if you made a (big) score. If not, I've been an idiot for a while, I could have been getting free plays or something, I imagine.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

thanks Valuist

Makes me think I should put in my big horizontals on track, then, no? It's not as hard for me to do that, I just prefer the local or other OTBs from a convenience, size and space point of view.

I suppose that depends on your handle. Do you live close to Arlington or Hawthorne?

[green80]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

I think Ellis Starr is a first rate handicapper. Good guy too.

Although I don't pay attention to other handicappers (not because I don't respect them) before a race, I sure would like to know how someone like Jonathan Kinchen can look at the same Formulator and Timeform that I do and regularly finish at the top of contests.

He has an ex college roommate that works at the tote hub.

[linrom1]

It's a disgrace that DRF lets this guy pitch his plays on otherwise fine Out of the Gate program.

There was a saying that I came across about ten years ago about one particular stock market prognosticator that most dangerous people are educated and articulate morons, JK fits that to a tee.

[Striker]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

Don’t forget about the IRB surcharges on all winning wagers that are placed ON TRACK at Arlington. It’s supposedly a small percent but I’ve had winning wagers where a decent amount(5-10%)is missing from the payouts. Last Thursday(7/19) in Race 7 the #2 Sing One Song had a show payout of $3.80, when the ticket was cashed it was $3.60. The bet was placed at Arlington.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Striker

Don’t forget about the IRB surcharges on all winning wagers that are placed ON TRACK at Arlington. It’s supposedly a small percent but I’ve had winning wagers where a decent amount(5-10%)is missing from the payouts. Last Thursday(7/19) in Race 7 the #2 Sing One Song had a show payout of $3.80, when the ticket was cashed it was $3.60. The bet was placed at Arlington.

Outright THEFT!

[Striker]

Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid

thaskalos,

What's the current hawthorne otb surcharge in IL?

If you bet simulcasts on track at hawthorne, do those disappear?

I think they are around 3-4%, no? Is Arlington/Trackside equally as bad?

I decided to do some research on the Arlington side of things for these surcharges that most people do not know about. What I found, I truly hope HANA may take notice, if they did not know already about this. So, I glossed thru an Arlington Park program from this weekend to see if there is any mentioning of the surcharges to the racing fans. To my surprise there actually was a paragraph talking about them. It states
“Surcharge Information: Pursuant to Section 26.3 of the Horse Racing Act of 1975, the following surcharges are applicable: Between 2.7% and 3.2% surcharge on all winning wagers at off track facilities; Between 1.7% and 2.2% surcharge on all winning wagers at inter-track facilities; Between 0.2% and 0.7% surcharge on winning wagers on-track.”
I guess the biggest issue I have with this, is there isn’t a definitive percentage for each respective location. Do they just get to pick and choose what wager gets hit with say the 0.2% as opposed to the 0.7%, or are those percentages attached to specific wagers? There didn’t used to be ranges for any of these surcharges a few years ago, it was a straight number on all winnings.

[thaskalos]

Where else but in Illinois would a bettor have to pay a surcharge in order to cash a ticket on-track?