NYRA Morning lines.

[Suff]

Morning line maker. I'm not feeling it with this guy. Sorry to say that. And I see industry guys throwing him props. But to me, he's a mad scientist trying to prove his theories.

I'm also not a social scientist, but when TLG starts every sentence with "I have the utmost respect for you"... I hear: "I didn't hire you"

[classhandicapper]

I have to disagree.

I think David Aragona is about as good as they come as a public handicapper and does an excellent job as the ML maker. What I really love is that he tracks his results and posts them. That tells you he's not just mailing it in. He has data that's helping him improve his odds lines.

Maybe you saw some you disagreed with and you turned out to be right. It's not an easy job. They all get some wrong or miss something.

[GMB@BP]

NYRA is a funny track as well, lots of different surface and track conditions to do with, shippers coming in, mix in a few other factors and I think its tough.

I think he does as good a job as the next guy, he is an excellent handicapper though but that is apples and oranges to a certain extent.

[MONEY]

There were 10 races today.

After scratches the horse with the lowest ML odds went off as the favorite 8 times and another one was 2nd favorite by a mere 5 cents.

I think that the ML guy is doing a great job.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by MONEY

There were 10 races today.

After scratches the horse with the lowest ML odds went off as the favorite 8 times and another one was 2nd favorite by a mere 5 cents.

I think that the ML guy is doing a great job.

Looks like he did his job very well.

[Suff]

I play in the double pool predominantly.

He actually helps me more than not. He puts Horse's at 10-1 ML that, in my head, I have that horse at 4-1. And it pays like a 6-1 because many people will not Double to or from a 10-1 ML. . I spend a lot of time looking at probables and will pays. He's off a lot.

[tophatmert]

David may be too good of a handicapper to be a great ML maker.

[Suff]

Only note that I used no names in my original post. I'm not trying to personalize it. Its just numbers and it may be just me. Really not about him personally. Obviously he is a solid person, just watching and listening to him and seeing his previous experience in other industries. Solid everywhere.

Horse racing is my hobby, I post here as a part of my personal enjoyment.

95% of my action is NYRA. I've been a fan of New York racing for 30 years.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Fuss

Morning line maker. I'm not feeling it with this guy. Sorry to say that. And I see industry guys throwing him props. But to me, he's a mad scientist trying to prove his theories.

I'm also not a social scientist, but when TLG starts every sentence with "I have the utmost respect for you"... I hear: "I didn't hire you"

This stuff is nonsense. I encouraged, to say the least, Timeform to hire David and think he's terrific.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by the little guy

This stuff is nonsense. I encouraged, to say the least, Timeform to hire David and think he's terrific.

I was winging that, sitting here play the pony's while watching Tiger. It probably was to snarkish. Apologies.

I like the Big A. He's enjoyable to listen to, I learn alot, and he is down to earth & a funny guy. Plus he is as Homegrown as they come. Very similar to you only down state homegrown.

I am wishing you a mild winter as a reprieve for all the rain you've dealt with this year. Which, props to you, you handled it as good as could be done, at least I thought.

Have a good day, thanks for the gentle schooling.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by tophatmert

David may be too good of a handicapper to be a great ML maker.

He's been really good though. Anecdotal "it feels like my 4-1 horses are 10-1 ML" isn't relevant; the fact that he predicts the favorite correctly the vast majority of the time shows he's on target.

[tophatmert]

Originally Posted by castaway01

He's been really good though. Anecdotal "it feels like my 4-1 horses are 10-1 ML" isn't relevant; the fact that he predicts the favorite correctly the vast majority of the time shows he's on target.

He has been good. He seems to rate the bottom half of the field better than a lot of ML guys. I bet long horses and I want them at 20-1 ML not the 10-1 or 12-1 he puts up. He seems to put more thought into the marginal contenders than the average ML maker.

[pandy]

I've made morning lines for harness and thoroughbreds. First of all, NYRA's line is solid. But no matter who does a morning line, there are always going to be some complaints because the line is subjective. I've made horses 5-1 that went off at 8-5. I honestly didn't think that many people would bet the horse.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by castaway01

He's been really good though. Anecdotal "it feels like my 4-1 horses are 10-1 ML" isn't relevant; the fact that he predicts the favorite correctly the vast majority of the time shows he's on target.

By definition, there is probably no morning-line maker in the land who "predicts the favorite correctly the vast majority of the time" over the long haul.




"70%" is about average... and "80%" is good (for a line-maker who is there and trying) (exclusive of places which use computer-generated, random numbers in the morning line slot)

[Suff]

Originally Posted by pandy

I've made morning lines for harness and thoroughbreds. First of all, NYRA's line is solid. But no matter who does a morning line, there are always going to be some complaints because the line is subjective. I've made horses 5-1 that went off at 8-5. I honestly didn't think that many people would bet the horse.

I'm not complaining.. Who says I'm complaining? Its all good.

I also make my own lines. Another reason I like Formulator. I toggle ML's off.

tophatmert made the same point I made. It helps juice multi-race payoffs when he is high, but the tote is lower.

I don't feel a horse should be 4-1. I know the horse will be 4-1 and I'm correct ( at some decent rate). In a double scenario where I see a 2-1 to a 4-1, I am chasing that double with a minimum expectation around $18 for a buck.

But when NYRA ML is actually a 6-1 to a 9-1 ML, that double will pay me $27 because the 6-1 and 9-1 ML scare people off. So the 2-1 to a 4-1 on the tote, pays a premium.

As far as picking the favorite in each race? I don't measure that way because honestly, I can do that as well. If you play one circuit, most people could do that part.