Ray Taulbot visits the SPAAAAA

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

MON 090312

I play selection(s) to win providing it's 3-1 or greater at pt

R2 - 10, 3 $12.60 (3/10 ex = $162)
R4 - 6, 2
R5 - 5
R7 - 5, 8 $16.40 (8/5 ex = $97.50)
R8 - 3
R10 - 9, 6
R11 - 3, 10

Good luck to everyone today!

Final stats for Saratoga 2012

Today: 12 selections, $24 wagered, $29.00 returned, 2 winners
Total: 208 selections, $416 wagered, $456.70 returned, 28 winners

win % = 13%
ave win mutuel = $16.31
roi = + 9.78

[PaceAdvantage]

Congrats on showing a profit for the meeting! Pretty damn impressive given the shortness of the meet and your low hit percentage...so easy to get sucked into a long losing streak with percentages like that which can have pretty negative effects when dealing with a meet that lasts only six weeks.

Bravo!

[lsosa54]

Nice work, Tom.

[RaceBookJoe]

Nice work.

[horses4courses]

Nicely done, Tom!

[castaway01]

Nice job on the picks.

[atlasaxis]

Thanks guys, was definitely a challenging meet. PA you're so right about the long losing streaks and possible negative effects when going for the longer prices. Looking back I was a little disappointed in my strike rate when using 2 selections. Normally it is about 60% overall, with Saratoga always being a little less. This meet ran about 20% and that really hurt the roi. Knowing the past performance of using 2 selections helped me stay the course and not micro manage the software settings. I've learned a few lessons the hard way about getting caught in the changes over the years, lessons that hopefully I'll hang on to especially when the going gets a little rough.

Keep on keepin' on everyone!

Tom

[Exotic1]

Really good job, Tom. I'm going to review your methodology.

Good luck.

[atlasaxis]

Thanks Exotic1. Do you use the pace calc (manual/software)?

Tom

[JimG]

Tom,

Congrats on a solid showing! I also own the Pace Computer software and am amazed at times the horses it comes up with and the prices. Continued success.

Jim

[mmdorn]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Thanks TD. I just let the software pick the best line among the last 3 races, no more than 120 days ago, and beaten by no more than 5.75 lengths.

Hi Tom,

I was just reading what a great job you did with the Ray Taulbot Pace calculator at the Saratoga meet. I saw what you said about using the last 3 races, within 120 days, and beaten by no more than 5.75 lengths. Do those races have to be on the same surface as today, on a fast or firm track, and if today is a sprint use only a sprint race, or only a route race if today is a route race?

Thanks,
Mike

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by mmdorn

Hi Tom,

I was just reading what a great job you did with the Ray Taulbot Pace calculator at the Saratoga meet. I saw what you said about using the last 3 races, within 120 days, and beaten by no more than 5.75 lengths. Do those races have to be on the same surface as today, on a fast or firm track, and if today is a sprint use only a sprint race, or only a route race if today is a route race?

Thanks,
Mike

Hi Mike,

Thank you. Ideally yes, same track, same surface & distance. Practically though, that's a rarity to find especially at Saratoga. I will initally run the software looking for the ideal situation as per above. If everyone, or nearly everyone comes back with a raw rating, that race is done for me. If not, I will look at the pps to see what everyone has been doing in their last 3 at as close as possible to today's conditions. Last week I caught a $49 winner (posted here) by going back the 4th race. The horse's last 3 were run on turf, the 4th back was on dirt (and was within the above requirements), as was today's race. So there is room for judgement calls and that will just come with experience of using the pace software, or any procedure for that matter.

I have used sprint lines in a route and try to avoid routes in a sprint (unless it's a first time sprinter or has had success in sprints further back), I have used off track lines (but rarely), turf lines on dirt but not the other way around, turf lines on poly and the reverse. Again it's a judgement call, and as you can see there are no rules written in concrete, especially in this game. I do find however that the more adjustments I try to make, the more trouble I get into. Simple is much better for me!

Hope this helps Mike, good luck to you!!

Tom

[mmdorn]

Thanks Tom, and continued great success.

Mike

[ICR]

I realize this post is years after the last post ... but... First post... Numerous views and readings on this forum...

Are there any copies of Taulbot Pace Software available ?

It seems to be off the market on the American Turf website ?

Any info would be appreciated ... Thanks in advance

ICR