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06-28-2015, 12:06 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 6/27/15
Bel 3-----#5 Ecstatic Miss
Bel 4-----#2 Heliodoro
Bel 5-----#2 Bambisfrostyracer
Bel 9-----#6 Pleasant Tales
Mth 4-----#1 Sublime Twist------------------XXXX, 13.00
Mth 5-----#1 Bat Cave (ent)-----------------XXXX, 26.60
Mth 8-----#6 Layla Pa Layla
Mth 10----#3 Fairbanks E Jet
Mth 11----#9 Royal Renege------------------scratched
GP 1------#5 Starship O. E. M.
GP 3------#7 Running Cat--------------------50.20, 9.00
GP 4------#5 Bluegrass Luck
GP 5------#5 Mambocello
GP 6------#1 Go Ro Ro Go
GP 7------#1 Princess Romano
GP 8------#5 Phil's Comprise
SA 1------#6 Jovita's Tuffy----------------------XXXX, 13.20
SA 3------#10 Emotional Drive
SA 4------#3 Monsieur Power
SA 5------#4 J Serino----------------------------XXXX, 6.20
SA 6------#3 Lutine Belle
SA 8------#6 Famous Alice
EVD 1-----#5 Our Rapidash----------------------9.60, 4.40
EVD 3-----#11 Angelet
EVD 6-----#9 Nanny's Peach
EVD 7-----#8 Visons and Dreams------------------scratched
EVD 8-----#2 Little Face
EVD 9-----#4 Romero's Best
For the day:
win = 2/26
bet = $52
back= $59.80
gain= $7.80--------for the year =($115.90 gain)
place = 6/26
bet = $52
back = $72.40
gain = $20.40----------for the year =($104.00 loss)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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06-28-2015, 12:18 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Second Quarter Review of Saturday Long Ones
# of win bets = 303
# win bets cashed = 18
hit rate = 5.9 %
$ win bet = $606
$ win back = $595.30
$ net = (10.70)
% loss = 1.8%
# of place bets = 303
# place bets cashed = 45
hit rate = 14.9%
$ place bet = $606
$ place back = $569.80
$ net = (36.20)
% loss = (6.0%)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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06-28-2015, 12:32 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Half Way Home----6 month totals
# of win bets = 608
# win bets cashed = 41
hit rate = 6.7 %
$ win bet = $1216
$ win back = $1331.90
$ net = $115.90
% gain = 1.0%
# of place bets = 608
# place bets cashed = 85
hit rate = 14.0%
$ place bet = $1216
$ place back = $1112.00
$ net = (104.00)
% loss = (8.6%)
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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06-28-2015, 01:51 PM
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#64
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Out of 23 winners, 11 of them were 15-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
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Total- $511.00
So, 47% of your total winners produced 69% of your payback.
It appears you might have a profitable selection method, so far.
My suggestion to you would be to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 15-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck..
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Aner, I truly enjoy following your picks every Saturday for the first half of 2015. I love enhancing methodologies that appear to have promise, yours being one of them. I have revised my previous post in order to get maximum potential, while having limited info. Here is what I see:
1st Quarter Results-
Out of 23 winners, 14 of them were 11-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
31.20
28.00
26.40
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Total- $596.60
You have 60% of your total winners producing 81% of your payback.
2nd Quarter Results-
Out of 18 winners, 9 of them were 11-1 and higher:
92.40
87.60
57.20
52.60
50.20
31.40
31.20
27.40
25.40
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Total- $455.40
You have 50% of your total winners producing 76% of your payback.
1st Half Totals-
Out of 41 winners, 23 of them were 11-1 and higher:
Total payback on these winners- $1052.00
You have 56% of your total winners producing 79% of your payback
In closing, these are very promising results for a sample size of over 600 bets. It's now up to you, going back to your records and see just how many total bets you had going off at 11-1 or higher to calculate your ROI.
Don't forget to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 11-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck...
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06-29-2015, 12:49 PM
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#65
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 11-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck...
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This philosophy is the wagering basis of my Black Box program. However, we test every track in 11 primary rankings methods, all at the same time in "All Record" mode which cycles through all 11 methods in each race, recording qualified picks and their results to 11 different record keeping sheets. Once the testing session is done we then analyze each record keeping sheet to find the best method for that track that meets our individual goals (number of plays, hit rate, ROI, and net profit based on $2 flat bets). All tracks are also analyzed to see which of the top 3 rankings in each method does best, and at what minimum odds (0.01/1 or higher through 11/1 or higher (each of the top 3 rankings have their own stats, for all the minimum odds ranges).
The 11 rankings methods range from pace oriented velocities versus pace pressure, to proprietary total velocities (highest or a mixture of averages), to power+form+velocity (PFV), to a Consensus method, to a Class method or Distance method or Class/Distance method. So we are looking at every race in many different ways and our record keeping sheets tell us which ones do best, at each individual track.
Some tracks allow us to bet all 3 top ranked horses at a minimum odds range, 2 of the 3, or a single ranked horse. Record keeping analysis is of primary importance in the Black Box, as it tells us what is actually happening at each track, not what we perceive is happening, because the record keeping process is ongoing. After we play each card we record our plays to update the record keeping sheets before playing the next card. All of this is automated within the program, except for the record keeping analysis, we do that old-school, looking for consistency and reducing or deleting any outliers.
I doubt many players would think much of betting multiple horses in races, to win, but there are 2 success factors in racing, hit rate and average payouts. Average payouts alone can make us successful, but some tracks just don't have a high enough average win payout to allow success. So, the logical solution is to produce a better hit rate, thus the multiple win bet philosophy at a minimum odds level.
I was never a win bet player, seriously, until the multiple win play thing hit me between the eyes. The degree of variance in racing can, and will, doom you, if you don't find a way to mitigate it, and multiple win plays at acceptable odds can be that mitigating factor, IMO.
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06-29-2015, 02:30 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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I'm confused guys. You said to bet all 3 picks. Isn't Aner only using one horse per race?
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06-29-2015, 02:35 PM
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#67
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
I'm confused guys. You said to bet all 3 picks. Isn't Aner only using one horse per race?
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Yes, RR was making a suggestion to Aner (although most of us around here wouldn't dare, he's a great player!), and I was just agreeing with the multiple horse betting and minimum odds requirement idea from RR.
Aner (unless I'm confusing him with someone else with the same or similar name) has long been one of the best "pickers" and value guys here, don't know how many tourneys he's won, or finished highly in, but his credentials are already set in stone, IMO.
Theoretically, his 10/1 odds requirement, on a 10 race card average, only needs to average 1 hit per card to be profitable (if the odds hold up, thus the RR suggestion to use conditional wagering to cut down on the late odds changes in the wrong direction).
Last edited by raybo; 06-29-2015 at 02:46 PM.
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06-29-2015, 02:37 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Oh, now I get it. So he's saying to use all picks that go off at 11-1 or higher even if they're in the same race.
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06-29-2015, 02:50 PM
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#69
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
Oh, now I get it. So he's saying to use all picks that go off at 11-1 or higher even if they're in the same race.
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Yes, that is my interpretation. Aner has been using 10/1 morning line minimum odds, but upon further analysis, RR found, in this relatively small sample, that 11/1 or higher horses are producing the majority of the profits, and by betting all horses in the top 3 that meet those odds, his hit percentage should increase also. That helps with the variance inherent to the game (IMO).
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06-29-2015, 02:54 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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Sounds like good information.
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06-30-2015, 07:16 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Aner, I truly enjoy following your picks every Saturday for the first half of 2015. I love enhancing methodologies that appear to have promise, yours being one of them. I have revised my previous post in order to get maximum potential, while having limited info. Here is what I see:
1st Quarter Results-
Out of 23 winners, 14 of them were 11-1 and higher:
58.00
56.40
55.60
50.60
48.80
46.00
42.40
41.60
39.80
38.00
33.80
31.20
28.00
26.40
-------
Total- $596.60
You have 60% of your total winners producing 81% of your payback.
2nd Quarter Results-
Out of 18 winners, 9 of them were 11-1 and higher:
92.40
87.60
57.20
52.60
50.20
31.40
31.20
27.40
25.40
-------
Total- $455.40
You have 50% of your total winners producing 76% of your payback.
1st Half Totals-
Out of 41 winners, 23 of them were 11-1 and higher:
Total payback on these winners- $1052.00
You have 56% of your total winners producing 79% of your payback
In closing, these are very promising results for a sample size of over 600 bets. It's now up to you, going back to your records and see just how many total bets you had going off at 11-1 or higher to calculate your ROI.
Don't forget to make conditional wagers with 0 or 1 minute to post, through Xpressbet or another entity who have this feature, and bet all 3 picks conditionally at minimum 11-1 in each race, thus forgetting the highly erratic morning line......Just set it, and forget it......Good Luck...
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Thanks for encouraging me to optimize. Because I did not have final odds for my 608 picks I was forced to look it up. Thank you Equibase for such good records.
I was a little surprised when I looked over the data. It appears super long ones are the only source of profit.
Final odds are 10:1 or less
# of win bets = 164
# win bets cashed = 18
hit rate = 11.0 %
$ win bet = $328
$ win back = $279.90
$ net = minus ($48.10)
% loss = 14.7%
# of place bets = 164
# place bets cashed =32
hit rate = 19.5%
$ place bet = $328
$ place back = $218.4
$ net = minus ($109.60)
% loss = (33.4%)
Final odds are 11:1 to 19:1
# of win bets = 188
# win bets cashed = 11
hit rate = 5.8%
$ win bet = $376
$ win back = $354.20
$ net = minus ($21.80)
% loss = 5.8%
# of place bets = 188
# place bets cashed =26
hit rate = 13.8%
$ place bet = $376
$ place back = $292.80
$ net = minus ($83.20)
% loss = (22.1%)
Final odds are 20:1 or greater
# of win bets = 255
# win bets cashed = 12
hit rate = 4.7 %
$ win bet = $510
$ win back = $697.80
$ net = plus 187.80
% gain = 36.8%
# of place bets = 255
# place bets cashed =28
hit rate = 11.0%
$ place bet = $510
$ place back = $592.80
$ net = plus $82.80
% gain = 16.2%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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06-30-2015, 07:21 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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That's interesting. Your hit rate for 20-1 or higher isn't that much lower than 11-1 to 19-1.
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06-30-2015, 07:51 PM
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#73
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Final odds are 20:1 or greater
# of win bets = 255
# win bets cashed = 12
hit rate = 4.7 %
$ win bet = $510
$ win back = $697.80
$ net = plus 187.80
% gain = 36.8%
# of place bets = 255
# place bets cashed =28
hit rate = 11.0%
$ place bet = $510
$ place back = $592.80
$ net = plus $82.80
% gain = 16.2%
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Rarely do I see a set of result stats where you can throw-out TWO OUTLIERS in both the win and place pay-outs, and STILL show a +ROI:
Tam 1-----#1 H B Warrior-----------------92.40, 30.80
SA 8------#6 Si Sage----------------------87.60, 26.00
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07-01-2015, 12:06 AM
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#74
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EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
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That's the beauty of not enforcing an upper odds requirement. Some say you should have a lower and and an upper (a range of odds), in order to optimize, but those so called "outliers" DO happen from time to time, and often are the difference between being profitable and losing money. Of course, one must be aware of the scale of payouts at each track, some tracks just don't produce those large payouts, or on the occasions that they do, the horses wouldn't be a legitimate contender.
Last edited by raybo; 07-01-2015 at 12:07 AM.
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07-04-2015, 02:10 AM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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To protect the integrity of the study I will continue to use the 10:1+ ML criterion although final odds are actually better.
Picks for 7/4/15
Bel 3-----#1 InSpeight Ofitall
Bel 5-----#4 Thomas Hill
Bel 7-----#7 Smart Transition
Bel 10----#1 Pine Needles
Bel 11----#8 Moonlight Song
WO 3------#10 Golden Blue Echo
WO 4------#7 Vinolicious
WO 5------#9 Amria's Pride
WO 8------#3 Bear No Joke
WO 10-----#12 Silent Auction
GP 1------#1 New York Jackie
GP 5------#6 Emerald Citadelle
GP 6------#8 My High Roller
GP 7------#7 Rocket Boulevard
GP 8------#3 Princess Fiona
GP 9------#3 Jill's Reflection
GP 10-----#10 Expected Meeting
Lrl 1------#3 Colton's Honor
Lrl 2------#2 Proper Heiress
Lrl 3------#2 Behind the Times
Lrl 4------#4 Onthewhistle
Lrl 7------#1 Scrapple
Lrl 8------#11 I. E. Flash
Lrl 8------#13 Cap'n Raymond
Mth 2------#1 Powered by the Sun
Mth 7------#2 S. S. Minnow
Mth 8------#3 Mid Ocean
Mth 10-----#6 Precious Mem
AP 1------#1 Half Foxy
AP 8------#7 Hashtag Giddy Up
LRC 4-----#6 Warrior Thatcher
OTP 5-----#6 Bodrum
OTP 6-----#2 Handful of Pearls
OTP 8-----#8 Fantastic Atticus
OTP 10----#9 Wild At Best
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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