Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 7 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 03-15-2015, 06:43 AM   #61
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-15-15

RACE 9 MSW 56,000 – 6.5F TURF (4:40 PST)

10 THIS IS WAR 4-1 Stevens Callaghan
1 BOAT DRINKS 5-2 Espinoza Sadler
5 REDHEADS RULE 3-1 Rosario Miller
3 AVENGE 7-2 Smith Mandella

#10 THIS IS WAR was decent in debut to get 2nd to the first timer, and favorite, for D’Amato, earned a 91 Beyer. Turf is where they’re aiming this one. Many of the better horses in female tree were turf runners (including Honey Ryder, 2.7M on turf, twice placed in BC F& M Turf).

#1 BOAT DRINKS has been second in both starts and both came at 6.5 furlongs here on the turf. She was outside in the debut, a good spot for a tracking type. She went to the lead in last and hung in well for 2nd. Inside post not ideal but she might be quick enough to clear off.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-19-2015, 11:59 AM   #62
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-19-15

R1 CLM 8k – 1M DIRT (1:00)

4 MIDNIGHT LADY 9-5

5 INCREDIBLE JOURNEY 8-1
7 ACUTE 3-1
2 AWE’ SOME KITTEN 8-1

#4 MIDNIGHT LADY really looks good in this spot. She won two back sitting on the pace at 3-1 with Bejarano up. She can stalk or close. Race is full of cheap speed so a typical ride by Bejarano should win this. 3rd 2 back came back to win at GG at 6,250 level at 3-5 (61 Beyer). 2nd won here 11 days ago at 5-2 (71 Beyer).

#5 INCREDIBLE JOURNEY will be coming from far out of it here and we are banking on the pace falling apart. Was beaten by the top pick two back by over 7 lengths but got off slow. Doesn’t have a win resume but a “chunk up for a piece” at a price resume. Use her under.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-20-2015, 11:53 AM   #63
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-20-15

R2 CLM 50k – 6.5F DIRT (1:30)

1 RENO REBEL 6-5

6 ROCKED TWICE 5-1
4 MY SAMURAI WARRIOR 5-2
5 APOLLO TEN 5-1

#1 RENO REBEL ran as first time gelding in his last start. He couldn’t keep pace with the very talented Masochistic (227k earner) and slightly tired from the early efforts. He ran 2nd in front of Catch a Flight, 3rd in the G1 Big ‘Cap. Has great speed, draws rail. Should be controlling from the inside. The leading rider stays here.

#6 ROCKED TWICE was claimed for 32k in his race two back and came off the layoff and won so easily for 20k. He went wide the entire race and was hand ridden all the way. He moves up to 50k but this colt knows how to win. Has to improve but looked to have more in the tank.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-21-2015, 09:46 AM   #64
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-21-15

RACE 2 CLAIMING 20,000 – 7F DIRT (12:57 PST)

4 SENOR RAIN 4-1 Gonzalez Glatt
7 NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR 8-5 Espinoza Miller
2 SACRED OVATION 5-2 Prat Papaprod
1 MEMPHIS 7-2 Puglisi Yakteen

#4 SENOR RAIN may have been a smart claim for 8k two back. He is a very game runner who exploded in the lane for the new connections. He is 3 for 5 at the distance and has always run well on the SA dirt. He beat a strong, legit 25k claimer, last. Nice trip expected. Fits w/ these.

#7 NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR has looked very good moving up the class ladder since claimed for 8k by Sadler. Another who has done well at Santa Anita. No excuse for not going by in last. 23 of 39 in the money and you’ll always get a game effort from him. Looks the one to beat.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-22-2015, 12:16 PM   #65
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-22-15

RACE 7---DREAM SUMMER 100k – 1M DIRT (3:28 PST)

2 SUDDEN SUNDAY 5-1
5 WILD IN THE SADDLE 9-5
6 GRAZENETTE 3-1
3 MELANISTIC 15-1

#2 SUDDEN SUNDAY got into this race with an 8-1 game win at GG in her last start. This race will be all about pace dynamics. This one will be sitting a great trip just behind the early speed. She wired a field in her only mile start (at GG a year ago). Form is good. Will be sneaky.

#5 WILD IN THE SADDLE will be in a good spot early and with the two scratches here, she could be controlling. Third from last came back to win at the same level this weekend. 7 time winner for Baltas, who is having nice meet. Major rider upgrade in play. Clearly the one to beat.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-26-2015, 09:29 AM   #66
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-26-15

R8---MDN CLM 50k – 5.5F DIRT (4:30)
5 SHE HUMS 5-1
8 REALLY A PRINCESS 5-2
2 TICABOO 3-1
4 RACING HOPE 6-1

#5 SHE HUMS is a first timer by the sprint sire, Ministers Wild Cat. This trainer has been sharp this year and has popped with longshot first timers, most of who were by this same sire. He had a 10-1 last week win that was basically this same pedigree. Works are strong for a trainer that usually works them very slow. Will be live today.

#8 REALLY A PRINCESS has hit the board in 4 of her 8 starts. She has the best early speed and draws well to the outside. Toss the race three back when she missed the break from the 11 post and was wide all the way. 3 for 4 in the money in the other dirt starts. Trainer 29% here in ’15.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2015, 11:14 AM   #67
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-27-15 FREE ANALYSIS FOR TODAY AT WEBSITE BELOW

R5--- CLM 16k – 1M DIRT (2:57 PT)
4 A P PEPPER 6-1
8 ARTICULATE 7-2
3 LA CASADORA 6-1
2 PROUD VIXEN 4-1

#4 A P PEPPER is a late running sprinter stretching out here. However, she was a router last year and ran quite well going long. Love the effort she gave at 28-1 3 back when last at this level. She is often overlooked, won at 17-1 and 2nd at 28-1 and Gryder knows her well. She makes a big class drop. Will be rolling in the lane.

#8 ARTICULATE
ships in from GG where she has been facing starter allowance foes there. Moves to a new trainer, Glatt, and picks up the leading rider for this. Show finisher three back returned to win at the same level. Two wins in last four starts. Will track from the outside post here.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-27-2015, 09:16 PM   #68
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-28-15

R4 OPT CLM 40k – 6.5F TURF (1:56 PT)
8 AMELIATHEAVIATOR 4-1
1 ANNIVERSARY KITTY 3-1
5 VANLOSE STAIRWAY 6-1
4 SPELLING AGAIN 6-1

#8 AMELIATHEAVIATORmay have found a home at this distance. She closed very strongly for 2nd in both of her starts here down-the-hill. Sire was a 6 time G1 winner on turf at a mile or less. Easy journey from the outside.

#1 ANNIVERSARY KITTYwas right behind the top choice while 6 wide in last. She was flat outrun by that filly in the late stages and is now stuck with a difficult inside post draw. Stakes placed filly is a must use in exotics.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-29-2015, 10:28 AM   #69
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
3-29-15

R1--- CLM 8k – 6.5F DIRT (12:30 PT)
4 TRAWEEK 3-1 Pedroza
5 NO CONTINGENCY 5-1 Panicucci
2 TIMELESS INDY 5-2 Pena
6 INDUSTRY LEADER 3-1 Quinonez

#4 TRAWEEK was claimed for the 2nd time in his last 3 starts last time. Ran evenly in a productive race. 2nd place finisher came back to win at 10k. 9th place, Bob Consultation, came ran 2nd at this level at 10-1. Hasn’t won since ’13 but been competitive at this level. Pedroza had options. Slight lean.

#5 NO CONTINGENCY might be broken or maybe refreshed. He stopped badly in last but has come back with blinkers off and a new apprentice rider, 10 lbs lighter than last and nice works. 4th two back in a 14 horse field might just win this.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-02-2015, 01:46 AM   #70
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-2-15

R8 -- SANTA ANITA (4:30 PT)
MSW 56k–6.5F TURF

6 ARCHITOP 6-1
3 WAR DESTINY 5-2
2 BELLAMY CONCERTO 3-1
8 BARBARY COAST 6-1

#6 ARCHITOP
Have to go a few generations back in the female tree but you’ll land on 10x G1 turf stakes winner (including ’87 and ’88 BC Mile winner), Miesque. The owner, trainer and rider teamed up 3x with debut turfers at 6.5F here. Two wins (27-1 and 8-1) & a close 4th. Clockers impressed w/ works.

#3 WAR DESTINY

Has the breeding to appreciate the move to the turf. Was off slow as the favorite in his debut which came at Del Mar. He came on well for third. Winner of the 1st start came back to win an allowance at near 30-1. Rider change to Baze who has won 27% for Sadler. Quick recent work.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-03-2015, 03:15 AM   #71
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-3-15

R4 MSW 56k–1M 1/16 DIRT
5 NOWALKING 5-2
3 SOMETHING AWESOME 7-2
4 KING OF JAZZ 9-2
2 SOLOMON NORTHUP 7-2

#5 NOWALKING
Hasn’t been able to break through after 5 straight 2nd or 3rd place finishes. He has had some excuses as he was steadied in both of his last two starts. Runner-up 2 back won twice since then. Winner in last came back to run 3rd (88 Beyer) at 7-2 vs opt 40k. Really training well for a return.

#3 SOMETHING AWESOME
Was right behind the top choice twice and comes in off a break for Shirreffs. Bred to want to go long. Pressed the pace in last but was wide all around the track. He gets a new rider here. Doubt we’ve seen the best he has to offer yet. Trainer having a nice season here. Espinoza 22% for him.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-04-2015, 04:12 AM   #72
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-4-15

R3 SANTA ANITA (12:59 PT)

ECHO EDDIE 200K–6.5F DIRT
4 RICHARD’S BOY 3-1
7 GRAZEN SKY 5-2
9 GIMME DA LUTE 3-1
8 OVER PAR 15-1

#4 RICHARD’S BOY
Undefeated gelding hasn’t taken a lick of betting but outruns his odds. Was purchased privately and, it should be noted, he beat a Peter Miller runner last out. He likely advised the purchase. Have to expect he’ll move up from 5% trainer to this top class outfit.

#7 GRAZEN SKY
Won two in a row for Miyadi, who has won with 9 of last 20 starts. Like the fact that he won on the lead two back and then closed from near last in most recent. He is one to beat with repeat effort.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-05-2015, 01:38 PM   #73
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-5-15

R1 BLACK JACK 30K–1M 1/16 DIRT (12:30 PT)

5 MUCHOS BESOS 5-1 Valdez
1 PERSUASIVE PAUL 2-1 Quinonez
3 SKIP TONY 7-2 Bejarano
6 BUYMEABOND 7-2 Prat

#5 MUCHOS BESOS

He has been good going long on the dirt (7 starts with 3 wins and 6 of the 7 in the money). Toss last when he was in too tough. Game win 3 back at distance. Rider 2 wins with him.

#1 PERSUASIVE PAUL
He has 3 wins in his last 5 starts. Couldn’t handle top choice in his last start. Going back to main rider, gets the rail, able to save ground. 3 for 6 on dirt and 4 for 8 for this trainer.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-10-2015, 02:52 AM   #74
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-10-15

R5 SANTA ANITA (2:57 PT)

STR ALLW 40k–1M 1/8 TURF
2 CARRICK BAY 2-1
8 DIAMOND CUT 6-1
5 STOLE A KISS 5-1
9 SO GOLDEN 8-1

#2 CARRICK BAY
Really think she will get the run of the race here. She draws well to the inside and has the patient Bejarano aboard. There is enough speed to allow her to relax. Beat many of these in last. 3rd won back over similar. In great form.

#8 DIAMOND CUT
41-1 in last but was not disgraced. She was 4th despite trying to close into what was not a very fast pace. She was hurt by a slow pace two back, as well, and was only about a half of a length off of the top choice there. Big weight break.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-11-2015, 06:40 AM   #75
Track Phantom
Registered User
 
Track Phantom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Austin, Tx
Posts: 2,752
4-11-15

CLM 16K–6F DIRT (12:30 PT)

3 TIMELESS INDY 9-2 Pena Periban
5 NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR 4-5 Baze Miller
4 CONGREGATIONALIST 8-1 Gutierrez Cerin
6 MY SLEW 5-2 Flores Garcia

#3 TIMELESS INDY
Trainer has won with 5 of his last 9 starters and all 9 were on the board. This one is racing for the 4th time in 34 days. He won the last two against much cheaper but did give Nextdoorneighbor a fight a few starts back. Form is good. Connections are very hot.

#5 NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR
Has been tearing up the claiming classes here. Only defeat in the last two months was when he lined up for 25k two back and he still earned a 91 Beyer there. The one to beat with a repeat here.
__________________
www.trackphantom.com
full card analysis
Track Phantom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:32 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.