TLG vs. CMOORE

[the little guy]

I have the flu, and am not in today, but despite CMoore's embarrassing whine yesterday, I will my picks here ( I did the card Wednesday before I got sick )....

1 ) 3 - 2 - 1 - 4

2 ) 3 - 2 - 5 - 1

3 ) 9 - 4 - 3 - 10 - 12

4 ) 5 - 3 - 4

5 ) 1 - 8 - 2 - 7 - 9

6 ) 1 - 7 - 8 - 5

7 ) 7 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 1

8 ) 3 - 6 - 7 - 10 - 1

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I have the flu, and am not in today, but despite CMoore's embarrassing whine yesterday, I will my picks here ( I did the card Wednesday before I got sick )....

1 ) 3 - 2 - 1 - 4

2 ) 3 - 2 - 5 - 1

3 ) 9 - 4 - 3 - 10 - 12

4 ) 5 - 3 - 4

5 ) 1 - 8 - 2 - 7 - 9

6 ) 1 - 7 - 8 - 5

7 ) 7 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 1

8 ) 3 - 6 - 7 - 10 - 1

Andy Serling gets sick. Get better soon man..I don't want to compete with someone who isn't thinking with a sound mind.. I've got to warn you..I'm feeling good about my picks today..

[the little guy]

I hope you didn't load up in the first race where one of your selections hit the board and my four selections combined for the super.

Maybe I'll have to start a race by race disection after that preposterous whine of yours yesterday.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I hope you didn't load up in the first race where one of your selections hit the board and my four selections combined for the super.

Maybe I'll have to start a race by race disection after that preposterous whine of yours yesterday.

At least I didn't whine about 4 bucks..

I did not load up in race 1. This 3 in race two is way over bet imo. 2/5 is insane. According to the race ratings. Muhaaseb faced a very weak MSW field back in September..Got to go against..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

I did not load up in race 1. This 3 in race two is way over bet imo. 2/5 is insane. According to the race ratings. Muhaaseb faced a very weak MSW field back in September..Got to go against..

If you actually had a public handicapping position that people paid attention to, like I do, and you made continuous selections like you did in today's second race and do frequently, you would have zero credibility. To not have Muhaaseb as even one of your three selections is ludicrous beyond belief and, quite simply, a poor job of handicapping.

An actual wise guy is someone who both understands weak favorites, and is also correct enough when picking against them to have credibility, but also understands strong favorites that are likely winners. Horses are not poor value simply because they have low odds, just as longshots are not necessarily good value, and this particular favorite is an extraordinarily likely winner. That doesn't mean he can't lose, as there are four firsters in the race ( and the #1 is getting bet strongly ), but suggesting, as you did, that he isn't one of the three likely winners, isn't handicapping.....it's dart throwing.

[cmoore]

Andy, If your playing the pick 3 or pick 4..Don't leave out that Elusive Quality runner in race three. I noticed you don't have him in your top three picks..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

Andy, If your playing the pick 3 or pick 4..Don't leave out that Elusive Quality runner in race three. I noticed you don't have him in your top three picks..

I picked him 4th.

First time starters win with almost alarming infrequency. I realize that you pick them almost exclusively, but if you're actually betting, this is a losing strategy.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

If you actually had a public handicapping position that people paid attention to, like I do, and you made continuous selections like you did in today's second race and do frequently, you would have zero credibility. To not have Muhaaseb as even one of your three selections is ludicrous beyond belief and, quite simply, a poor job of handicapping.

An actual wise guy is someone who both understands weak favorites, and is also correct enough when picking against them to have credibility, but also understands strong favorites that are likely winners. Horses are not poor value simply because they have low odds, just as longshots are not necessarily good value, and this particular favorite is an extraordinarily likely winner. That doesn't mean he can't lose, as there are four firsters in the race ( and the #1 is getting bet strongly ), but suggesting, as you did, that he isn't one of the three likely winners, isn't handicapping.....it's dart throwing.

I know pedigree pretty damn good..When I bet first timers. I have very good reasons why. It's not dart throwing as you call it.. I knew Muhaaseeb wouldn't get the lead today and thought he will have to come from behind again. I see these over bet favorites off long layoffs lose all the time. My second choice paid more to place then the 3 did to wps added up..

Seriously..Where are 2/5's going to get anyone in the long run? Even the exactas are usually over bet.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I picked him 4th.

First time starters win with almost alarming infrequency. I realize that you pick them almost exclusively, but if you're actually betting, this is a losing strategy.

How often first timers win...
Dirt
2 year olds = 24.4%
3 year olds = 6.97%

Turf
2 year olds = 18.3%
3 year olds = 4.6%

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

I know pedigree pretty damn good..When I bet first timers. I have very good reasons why. It's not dart throwing as you call it.. I knew Muhaaseeb wouldn't get the lead today and thought he will have to come from behind again. I see these over bet favorites off long layoffs lose all the time. My second choice paid more to place then the 3 did to wps added up..

Seriously..Where are 2/5's going to get anyone in the long run? Even the exactas are usually over bet.

Using breeding to bet first time starters is folly.

If you had actually watched Muhasseb's first race carefully you would have seen that he wasn't a speed horse. He was ridden extremely aggressively that day, and had little to no real speed, and it was actually in finally settling that he accelerated.

As for your final comment......I am loathe to pick, and almost never bet, short priced horses. I do however use them to my advantage in multi-race bets when they are very high percentage winners. However, I don't pick and play against ones that are extremely likely winners, such as Muhasseb, as winning in this game is about picking your spots carefully and not throwing shit against the wall, race after race, in hopes that occasionally it works out.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

How often first timers win...
Dirt
2 year olds = 24.4%
3 year olds = 6.97%

Turf
2 year olds = 18.3%
3 year olds = 4.6%

You do understand why these numbers are what they are and why they prove my point?

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Using breeding to bet first time starters is folly.

Now that is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard you make..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

Now that is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard you make..

Why, because it negates your entire handicapping philosophy?

You either want to learn or you don't.

[cmoore]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Using breeding to bet first time starters is folly.

If you had actually watched Muhasseb's first race carefully you would have seen that he wasn't a speed horse. He was ridden extremely aggressively that day, and had little to no real speed, and it was actually in finally settling that he accelerated.

As for your final comment......I am loathe to pick, and almost never bet, short priced horses. I do however use them to my advantage in multi-race bets when they are very high percentage winners. However, I don't pick and play against ones that are extremely likely winners, such as Muhasseb, as winning in this game is about picking your spots carefully and not throwing shit against the wall, race after race, in hopes that occasionally it works out.

I don't make a habit in always trying to beat the over bet favorite.. But when I feel there is a chance and have sound handicapping factors. I won't hesitate to go against. Offlee Wild runners had the lowest AWD. Also that sires runners had a spi figure of 2.19 and had a high win percentage first time out..Plus the trainer got a 152 layoff factor with first timers in that type of race. Average being 100..So dart throwing as you call it is far from the truth..

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by cmoore

I don't make a habit in always trying to beat the over bet favorite.. But when I feel there is a chance and have sound handicapping factors. I won't hesitate to go against. Offlee Wild runners had the lowest AWD. Also that sires runners had a spi figure of 2.19 and had a high win percentage first time out..Plus the trainer got a 152 layoff factor with first timers in that tpe of race. Average being 100..So dart throwing as you call it is far from the truth..

Coming up with theoretical reasons to bet most horses is not particularly hard and it is especially easy with first time starters. If, however, the entire strategy is essentially flawed, as this one is, then the " reasoning " becomes irrelevent.