Since Speed is the Long Pole in the Tent

[Capper Al]

Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners. Maybe it is top speed that should be eliminated rather than false favorites? Top speed and favorites should correlate well to each other. But if you believe in handicapping before you get to the races then you're guessing at the favorite but you know what the top speed is. For me, this would be backwards. I follow the classic order of form, class, speed, and pace. But it does make sense to start with the best factor(speed) and try to improve upon that.

[thaskalos]

What do you mean by "speed"? EARLY speed?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners. Maybe it is top speed that should be eliminated rather than false favorites? Top speed and favorites should correlate well to each other. But if you believe in handicapping before you get to the races then you're guessing at the favorite but you know what the top speed is. For me, this would be backwards. I follow the classic order of form, class, speed, and pace. But it does make sense to start with the best factor(speed) and try to improve upon that.

I disagree. Pace is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.

How do you get form without first considering class, speed, and pace?

[Ocala Mike]

And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.

Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!

[whodoyoulike]

If it's true then I interpret that saying as a reference to pace not class or speed.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.

Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!

The proble with class and pace are that they are subjective while "speed" might be more objective

[Terry Riggs]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

And then there are others who will say CLASS is the long pole.

Who was the famous sportswriter (Grantland Rice maybe?) who said, however (paraphrasing the good book):

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the stong, but that's the way to bet"!

Damon Runyon (1884 – 1946) Guys and Dolls

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I disagree. Pace is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.

How do you get form without first considering class, speed, and pace?

I agree with you because "pace" is the rate of motion which determines speed and can be objectively and quantitatively measured.

Simply stated, speed is a function of pace.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Speed is by far the best stand alone factor for picking winners.

For a few races. And you can build a profitable method for a few races. But it's as equally true that an early pace # could be central to making a ton of money on a few races. It's also as equally true to say on a few races a closing # will make you money. It's important not to generalize on a card, and be specific as to the surface and the distance.

[Capper Al]

By speed, I mean final speed like Beyer speed.

Those claiming other factors are more predictive better double their figures or enlightened us. Pace or class can have their spots, but I'm not talking about spots here. We are looking at all races.

The question asked another way is since speed is the best factor there isn't a better figure to start with and this should be the factor to modify. Any other factor starts one off with a lower hit rate. Why use any other factor? And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.

[Tom]

You assume you know what we are doing.
Denial my butt.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.

When you make comments like these, you betray your complete and total ignorance of what competent pace handicapping is all about. You don't add up the pace fragments to total up the final speed figure when you pace-handicap...that's just in your mind. In fact, pace handicapping was born because the highest speed figure horse so often disappointed at times when his "speed figure" towered over the speed figures of his competition.

Listening to your ramblings, one would get the impression that the "speed" handicappers and the "pace" handicappers all end up betting on the same horses...and that assumption couldn't be further from the truth.

IMO....you'd be a lot better off if you stuck to your "angles", Al. Figure handicapping doesn't appear to be your strong-suit.

[DJofSD]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

And you pace user are in denial. You start with speed in fragments and then add the fragments up for a final figure.

Do you use pace? Your statements appear to me some one told you about pace and you don't use it yourself.

Pace is not just adding up 3 numbers to get a single number then seeing which horse has the bigger value. That's treating pace as if it is just a variation on a speed figure.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by Tom

You assume you know what we are doing.
Denial my butt.

So you are saying that you have a better factor, or you know better? That's what your butt should answer if this is what you have.

My research and that of many others have shown speed to be the single best factor.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by DJofSD

Do you use pace? Your statements appear to me some one told you about pace and you don't use it yourself.

Pace is not just adding up 3 numbers to get a single number then seeing which horse has the bigger value. That's treating pace as if it is just a variation on a speed figure.

I currently have my pace module in my code disconnected for the rewrite, but am looking forward to revising it and still use much of what Giles has thought me. And I agree that the best use of pace is figuring if the horse can run his race. But I'm not talking about analysis here as the starting point. The discussion for pace would be on a single pace figure like Equibase offers to compare against speed. Speed should out do most comprehensive figures here.