What will be DMR's cut of Betfair's trading on the Pacific Classic today?

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Foolish Pleasure

They matched $100K on the Travers,
Betfair makes between $500 to $750-

SAR's cut between $50 and $75.



Sure Burn in order for us to have a thriving sport that is the sort of thing needed along with a hike in takeout on the tote.




I am not really sure he actually believes lower takeout is better either.

Afterall Betfair has done nothing but raise the takeout on the exchange since they opened.

If they matched 100K, that means probably only 15K was backed to win (with the rest being the matching monies on the lay side). On average, the commission results in about 7% of the backing totals, sure its not the 15% the tracks take but no where near the pennies you claim.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Some_One

If they matched 100K, that means probably only 15K was backed to win (with the rest being the matching monies on the lay side). On average, the commission results in about 7% of the backing totals, sure its not the 15% the tracks take but no where near the pennies you claim.

It's really a simple analogy, but since we have had the pari-mutuel pools since about 1890, it is tough for racing to grasp a new phenomenon.

Here is a screen shot of a software package for trader types.

http://bfexplorer.net/Content/Pictur...OandTrader.png

This allows for several things. The first and most obvious is the volume. This fella bet several thousand pounds on this race. If you notice, the takeout on the buy side is 99.64%, or below 100%, creating an edge. He exploited that edge and made about $250. Taxed at 5%, that brings in $12.50 revenue.

If you or I were betting in the win pool, say at Twinspires, to give $12.50 revenue at 15% takeout we would have to bet this horse $83 to win. So this, in effect is an $80 win bet.

Now, look at it logically. Look at the screen. Is this player really wanting to go to a track and bet $80 to win on something? Of course not, he is doing something different, because the platform allows him to do something different. Show this screen to a dude at the simo center today and tell him its racing, and he will think you are from Mars. It does not appeal to a lot of old time bettors.

In the end we have $12.50 made off this person. If this was not there, we have $0 made off this person.

Racing realized that $12.50 is greater than $0.00, and by expanding markets through different 21st century mediums it can be beneficial to the sport.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by DeanT

It's really a simple analogy, but since we have had the pari-mutuel pools since about 1890, it is tough for racing to grasp a new phenomenon.

Here is a screen shot of a software package for trader types.

http://bfexplorer.net/Content/Pictur...OandTrader.png

This allows for several things. The first and most obvious is the volume. This fella bet several thousand pounds on this race. If you notice, the takeout on the buy side is 99.64%, or below 100%, creating an edge. He exploited that edge and made about $250. Taxed at 5%, that brings in $12.50 revenue.

If you or I were betting in the win pool, say at Twinspires, to give $12.50 revenue at 15% takeout we would have to bet this horse $83 to win. So this, in effect is an $80 win bet.

Now, look at it logically. Look at the screen. Is this player really wanting to go to a track and bet $80 to win on something? Of course not, he is doing something different, because the platform allows him to do something different. Show this screen to a dude at the simo center today and tell him its racing, and he will think you are from Mars. It does not appeal to a lot of old time bettors.

In the end we have $12.50 made off this person. If this was not there, we have $0 made off this person.

Racing realized that $12.50 is greater than $0.00, and by expanding markets through different 21st century mediums it can be beneficial to the sport.

Dean, I disagree with you on this one. I suspect half the Pace board would be interested in Betfair if it were legal in the US (if I knew how to do a poll on here I would). Does US handle fall under the old 80/20 rule or maybe even 95/5 rule, where 95% of the handle is generated by 5% of the bettors? That 5% is probably the most sophisticated/dedicated/complusive, and I suspect most would like to have access to Betfair. Giving them access would cannibalize existing handle, imo.

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Dean, I disagree with you on this one. I suspect half the Pace board would be interested in Betfair if it were legal in the US (if I knew how to do a poll on here I would). Does US handle fall under the old 80/20 rule or maybe even 95/5 rule, where 95% of the handle is generated by 5% of the bettors? That 5% is probably the most sophisticated/dedicated/complusive, and I suspect most would like to have access to Betfair. Giving them access would cannibalize existing handle, imo.

It sounds logical Mike, but it does not really happen like that. What tends to happen is the following:

1- The new platform attracts new money
2 - The New platform attracts old money who have left
3- The new platform attracts money that is existing, however, when people are making a little more at racing, or losing a little less, it gets them to follow the sport more, and bet more into the pools (i.e. weekend warriors or once a week players now play three or four times)

I was on a panel about four years ago about wagering and new wagering concepts. The dude beside me was a horseplayer until about 1998 (takeout was too high and he could win more playing poker and betting sports). Then BF came along. He joined in 2001 and started to look at racing again. He played into BF quite a bit of money (many millions).

What happened was something that did not surprise me, but did surprise the racing execs in the crowd. He detailed that because he followed the sport again, he was betting into the pools. He told them he tried a place pool system that he developed and he bet $425k testing it into the pools. Then he detailed his exotic bets, which were over $800k, for a grand total of 1.25M bet into the pools (previous years handle)

A racing executive stood up and asked "why should we allow Betfair. You are betting into the pools, so if it was not there you would bet win in the pools too. Would you not bet $3M or $4m with us?"

The answer was short and sweet. "If BF was not here and I could not play it, my parimutuel handle would be $0"

The crowd (kind of like the crowd here now in 2010) did not believe him. It had to cannibalize pools they said.

Then a short time later, the Tasmania data came out. For the first time we could see what happened when they entered a market: Prize money was up, and handle was up by 30% (domestic handle was up in total as well as offshore).

While execs scratched their heads, horseplayers were saying "what is so surprising dudes?"

Edit: Link to the Tasmania first year numbers.

http://www.themercury.com.au/article...ania-news.html

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by DeanT

It sounds logical Mike, but it does not really happen like that. What tends to happen is the following:

1- The new platform attracts new money
2 - The New platform attracts old money who have left
3- The new platform attracts money that is existing, however, when people are making a little more at racing, or losing a little less, it gets them to follow the sport more, and bet more into the pools (i.e. weekend warriors or once a week players now play three or four times)

http://www.themercury.com.au/article...ania-news.html

Just in case you turn out to be wrong, I think Betfair should be test marketed at one or two tracks in the US before being rolled out nationally. Would you take issue with that?

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Just in case you turn out to be wrong, I think Betfair should be test marketed at one or two tracks in the US before being rolled out nationally. Would you take issue with that?

I believe that is what this bill does. SA, DMR, GGX will be the tracks available to CA residents. There is your test case.

I honestly dont care much Mike. Racing execs will do what racing execs do. To this day we see it around the world. It is the only business who can preside over a business which has lost close to 50% of its real handle this decade, who stay in their jobs. Some of these folks were even promoted.

It is what it is.

[Charlie D]

TOTE's arrangement with Betfair that provides the company with access to Betfair's global customer base of more than one million punters substantially adds to the totalisator pools.

I think i may be one of those global customers. C'mon US racing leaders WAKE UP for gawd sake.

[Some_One]

For a betting exchange model to work, there needs to be liquidity, if you don't have it, you're and ibetx or betdaq that does low volume. So for things to work the best, tracks should partner with Betfair, and obviously they already have 10 tracks or so every day, it's just they can't take American money.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

I think i may be one of those global customers. C'mon US racing leaders WAKE UP for gawd sake.

You can bet into the US tote pools on Betfair, with the exception of Canadian players

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by DeanT

I believe that is what this bill does. SA, DMR, GGX will be the tracks available to CA residents. There is your test case.

I honestly dont care much Mike. Racing execs will do what racing execs do. To this day we see it around the world. It is the only business who can preside over a business which has lost close to 50% of its real handle this decade, who stay in their jobs. Some of these folks were even promoted.

It is what it is.

As I said to you probably 700 posts ago, I'd hire you to run my track. One problem: I don't own a track!

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Some_One

You can bet into the US tote pools on Betfair, with the exception of Canadian players

Only at certain tracks Some One. IE: You can't get into Socal Tote pools.

[Some_One]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Only at certain tracks Some One. IE: You can't get into Socal Tote pools.

Really? Ok i stand corrected, as a Canuck, I wouldn't know, I thought it was all

[Foolish Pleasure]

He honestly doesn't care,
just been shilling Betfair's interests all week long.

and backing with it with the usual incredibly ignorant information would be embarrasing for a professional in any other field.


THey could cut takeout to 1/10th of 1% and the end results would not change one teeny little bit.


All one has to do is look in the threads to see why.

If they matched 100K, that means probably only 15K was backed to win (with the rest being the matching monies on the lay side). On average, the commission results in about 7% of the backing totals, sure its not the 15% the tracks take but no where near the pennies you claim.

I guess betfair's own financial statements are wrong.

The ones where they unequivocally state they hold around 1/2 of 1% of the matched totals at random.




such a joke,

players adovcacy groups supporting a bill that raises the takeout on the most bet pools with this idiotic clinging to this retarded notion that betfair and/or exchaneg wagering is the savior.

morons.



Don't worry about deleting any more posts or locking any more threads,
costs me $25,000/yr to post and it ain't happening here again for a long time.

Can go back to hosting the touts, shills, authors and know nothing types while our forum actually hosts full time professionals bettors.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Foolish Pleasure

Don't worry about deleting any more posts or locking any more threads,
costs me $25,000/yr to post and it ain't happening here again for a long time.

Wow, two "I'm leaving" posts in the same day. Full Moon?

[Tom]

Don't worry about deleting any more posts or locking any more threads, costs me $25,000/yr to post and it ain't happening here again for a long time.

You need a better ISP!