Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
So if I'm reading that article correctly, the assumption is that Harper's first year (2019) will be his best, and he'll then experience a gradual, steady decline? Is that correct? At least from a standard Bat%/OBP/Slg% slash line?
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Possibly, but even this year, perhaps a 6 WAR at most...
..."FiveThirtyEight examined all players in MLB history who have had one season of 8 or more WAR — but only one — before turning 26, and then we studied the trajectory of those players’ careers. There are 32 such players in MLB history, including three other than Harper who are still active: Aaron Judge, Matt Chapman (who hasn’t played his age 26 season) and Evan Longoria. Of the 28 players who are no longer active, 17 never produced another 8-plus WAR season after their age 25 season.
The historical players studied peaked at age 24 (6.6 WAR) and 25 (6.5 WAR), then they declined steadily. A player’s peak is often earlier than conventional wisdom would expect. Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs found that while the average ballplayer peaks at age 27, good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ast-his-prime/