COMPELLING new view of the FOUL

[BlueChip@DRF]

It does show Tyler trying to bull his way through where there was no opening. However with the MS veering, Saez should have checked his rear view mirror. Oh, wait....

[LemonSoupKid]

That analysis clearly shows that Gaffalione is trying to make an opening and MS was hit before any lane switch.

Taking him down is now more criminal than I even thought before.

[thaskalos]

Can you imagine the nationwide uproar if Maximum Security is reinstated?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by delsully

Now, I happen to think Baffert was calling out the people who claimed foul.

Who cares? Baffert the guy who had a ton of horses die under him a few years ago because he was giving them something he shouldn't have been? That Baffert? You gonna call him out?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

CJ posted this in two other threads, but this deserves its OWN thread.

For the doubters, WATCH THIS and then tell me this horse didn't deserve to be DQ'd.

https://twitter.com/CarsoniPH/status...28240144457730

For the sake of posterity:

When I saw the live race and the NBC replays on the live broadcast I thought the stewards made the right call because of how far right Maximum Security drifted out.

However, what the very low-resolution twitter replay does not show that the more recent higher resolution replays show is that War of Will initiated the contact when he ran into the back of Max. The contact appeared to cause Max to skip immediately to his left. Thus WOW was the one who interfered.

Since Max crossed the finish line first, it should have been ruled, "No harm. No foul", in my very humble opinion. Hopefully, no one takes offense at me expressing my opinion on a race that I did NOT bet. I am only making it in an attempt to get at the truth.

Only Maximum Security knows the truth, but he isn't talking.

[Afleet]

If Max Security keeps a straight path none of this happens-people are making it too complicated

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by highnote

For the sake of posterity:

When I saw the live race and the NBC replays on the live broadcast I thought the stewards made the right call because of how far right Maximum Security drifted out.

However, what the very low-resolution twitter replay does not show that the more recent higher resolution replays show is that War of Will initiated the contact when he ran into the back of Max. The contact appeared to cause Max to skip immediately to his left. Thus WOW was the one who interfered.

Since Max crossed the finish line first, it should have been ruled, "No harm. No foul", in my very humble opinion. Hopefully, no one takes offense at me expressing my opinion on a race that I did NOT bet. I am only making it in an attempt to get at the truth.

Only Maximum Security knows the truth, but he isn't talking.

Ummm...a few folks have presented you with a decent rebuttal to the claim that WoW initiated the contact...this theory needs a lot better sell before I think of buying.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Afleet

If Max Security keeps a straight path none of this happens-people are making it too complicated

The argument of the pro-MS people is that WoW initiated contact with him from behind before MS veered out. The contact is what caused him to veer out.

Of course, this all debatable, but that's the argument.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Ummm...a few folks have presented you with a decent rebuttal to the claim that WoW initiated the contact...this theory needs a lot better sell before I think of buying.

Like I said, when I saw the race live and seeing the replays on live TV, my first thought was that MS was coming down. However, after watching the replays in slow motion from the side angle it looks clear to me that MS was still in his path when WoW hit him from behind. MS veered out after he got hit, not before.

On the twitter video the resolution is very fuzzy and it's hard to tell from that angle if there was any contact.

The better way to determine the correct outcome is to look at the digital footage that NBC recorded. They very likely have isolated recordings of every camera that followed the race.

I am going to watch again to see if MS changed leads. I couldn't tell for certain because the rail obscured the view, but maybe if I look at different angles it will be easier to see?

In any case, we all knew this would be talked about for decades if not a hundred years from now.

"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse-races."
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar, 1894

I would also add: It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse-races, and ticks people off, and causes wars.

[thaskalos]

The new video must be having some kind of an affect...because the PA DQ poll now stands at 187-179 in favor of NO. Just saying...

[delsully]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Who cares? Baffert the guy who had a ton of horses die under him a few years ago because he was giving them something he shouldn't have been? That Baffert? You gonna call him out?

I can’t understand how you construed anything I’ve said as support for Baffert

[A. Pineda]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The new video must be having some kind of an affect...because the PA DQ poll now stands at 187-179 in favor of NO. Just saying...

I noticed that, too. It's disappointing that some sophisticated players are doubting what they saw happen because of an edited video.

This video starts at the 2:00 minute mark of the NBC video, and it does show WOW right on top of MS.

But what happened two seconds prior? At the 1:57 mark the field bunches up.
At 1:58 , WOW can't get through on the inside, so he steers to go around MS. An instant later MS moves to block. Notice that he is inside the tractor tire marks. Two seconds later, at the start of the new video, MS has fully crossed the tire marks, and succeeded in blocking WOW.

At 2:02, MS has returned to his original position in the 1-path, at which point one of these new videos proclaims that MS is "still running straight."

Whatever contact occurred, if any, was initiated by MS. It's ironic, because the seam was not big enough for WOW to get through, and he would have had to bogard his way through, and LRT's claim of foul might have instead been against WOW.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by A. Pineda

I noticed that, too. It's disappointing that some sophisticated players are doubting what they saw happen because of an edited video.

This video starts at the 2:00 minute mark of the NBC video, and it does show WOW right on top of MS.

But what happened two seconds prior? At the 1:57 mark the field bunches up.
At 1:58 , WOW can't get through on the inside, so he steers to go around MS. An instant later MS moves to block. Notice that he is inside the tractor tire marks. Two seconds later, at the start of the new video, MS has fully crossed the tire marks, and succeeded in blocking WOW.

At 2:02, MS has returned to his original position in the 1-path, at which point one of these new videos proclaims that MS is "still running straight."

Whatever contact occurred, if any, was initiated by MS. It's ironic, because the seam was not big enough for WOW to get through, and he would have had to bogard his way through, and LRT's claim of foul might have instead been against WOW.

What surprises me is that most of the trainers and the jockeys whom I have seen express an opinion on this topic have sided with the NO DQ crowd. If the decision was as obvious as you guys make it out to be...why would most of the horse people voice their disagreement with the stewards' decision?

[A. Pineda]

Tradition?

Snatching away $1,860,000 from the popular owner?

The best horse (this day) won?

Many reasons to abhor this decision.

ETA - While I was only thinking about the $$, this was nearly a lifelong dream achieved, and then
taken away. Seems too cruel, but in the context of the deaths at SA and elsewhere, the
stewards took a stand, right or wrong.

[highnote]

Go to youtube and watch the NBC replay. The one I watched is called: "Kentucky Derby 2019 (FULL RACE) ends in historic controversial finish | NBC Sports "

At the 204 mark the announcer says "War of Will second".

On the word "second" MS changes leads, but is still in his lane.

One stride later, WOW clips MS from behind, but MS is still in his lane.

What probably happened is that when MS changed leads he lost momentum for one stride. WOW, like a car tailgating on a highway, did not leave an assured clear distance (not that this is a rule in horse racing). This brief change of momentum by MS was enough to cause WOW's legs to get tangled up in MS's. After they locked legs, MS drifted outside.

I will post the still images of the sequence next if I can figure out how to do it. There are 10 images in the series.