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View Poll Results: Estimate of Zenyatta's Chances to win 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic
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5% or less
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8 |
6.78% |
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6-12%
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5 |
4.24% |
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13-18%
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12 |
10.17% |
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19-25%
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20 |
16.95% |
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26-32%
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16 |
13.56% |
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33-40%
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16 |
13.56% |
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41-49%
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5 |
4.24% |
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50% or better
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36 |
30.51% |
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10-13-2010, 08:52 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 707
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What are Zenyatta's chances of winning 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic?
We are now 24 days away from the big race. Of course any estimates on Zenyatta's chances of winning will get better as we get closer to the race.
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10-13-2010, 09:23 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,557
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The mile and a quarter distance is the deciding factor, IMO.
If the race were to be run 100 times - against the expected starting lineup - I have Zenyatta winning 36 times.
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10-13-2010, 10:17 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Fair assessment
On race day, Zenyatta will probably be no higher than 2-1 odds - maybe as low as even money. That does not reflect her chances of winning the race, as those odds, on average, would give her somewhere around a 40% chance of victory.
Realistically, her chances of winning are closer to twice those odds, assuming a full field of top quality dirt horses. Now I'm not saying she's going to get beat - she has amazed me so many times before - but she is going to be a lousy bet.
Luckily enough, I will be in Ireland next week, and I may take some of the 4-1 fixed odds available in the bookies futures over there.
There is no way on earth that Zenyatta will be 4-1 on Nov 6th.........
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10-13-2010, 10:51 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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No way she could be 4-1? Who has she beaten on real dirt? She's never run against the likes of a Blame or Quality Road on real dirt. Throw in several good 3YOs and a full field and she almost HAS to be no lower than that. I give her about a 15% chance of winning.
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10-13-2010, 11:00 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,569
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
No way she could be 4-1? Who has she beaten on real dirt? She's never run against the likes of a Blame or Quality Road on real dirt. Throw in several good 3YOs and a full field and she almost HAS to be no lower than that. I give her about a 15% chance of winning.
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I'll send you $1000 on Nov 7th if she goes off in the BCC at 4-1, or higher.
The odds she will be at post time will not reflect her chances of winning.
Last edited by horses4courses; 10-13-2010 at 11:01 PM.
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10-13-2010, 11:01 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 565
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Remove Zenyatta from the equation, and I think many people would agree or at least have similar ideas of the chances of the others in this field. Throw in Zenyatta, and the opinions are all over the place because of the knowledge that we do have and the knowledge that we don't have. I think 4-1 sounds about right.
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10-13-2010, 11:31 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
No way she could be 4-1? Who has she beaten on real dirt? She's never run against the likes of a Blame or Quality Road on real dirt. Throw in several good 3YOs and a full field and she almost HAS to be no lower than that. I give her about a 15% chance of winning.
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she will win and i hope to see your response after it. 
__________________
Ruffian: Lucien Laurin, Secretariat's trainer, said this quote to the press "As God as my witness, she may even be better than Secretariat."
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10-13-2010, 11:32 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
No way she could be 4-1? Who has she beaten on real dirt? She's never run against the likes of a Blame or Quality Road on real dirt. Throw in several good 3YOs and a full field and she almost HAS to be no lower than that. I give her about a 15% chance of winning.
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The odds won't reflect your opinion. It will reflect who the most popular horse is.
Only one horse is popular enough that Breeders Cup decided to make her a website. With that kind of popularity, hard to believe she'll be higher than 4-1.
I'm going with the public making her 2-1.
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10-13-2010, 11:38 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
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You guys (or women) are giving way too much credit to the Zenyatta fan club bettors with their $2 tickets. The big bettors won't touch her for that very reason (among others). Outside of California, nobody in the general public has any idea who she is. Yes, I wish racing was more popular also, but to Joe Public, unless they've won or run well in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont, they aren't known.
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10-13-2010, 11:55 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
You guys (or women) are giving way too much credit to the Zenyatta fan club bettors with their $2 tickets. The big bettors won't touch her for that very reason (among others). Outside of California, nobody in the general public has any idea who she is. Yes, I wish racing was more popular also, but to Joe Public, unless they've won or run well in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont, they aren't known.
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lol she was the 5-2 favorite last year. You have a very strange view of what her odds will be.
It's not like California will be shut out from betting this race this year just because it's at Churchill. Everyone will be betting the BC. She's already being compared to Secretariat.
A few people on this forum even believe she's as good as Secretariat.
I don't like Zenyatta's handling or her connections. But I don't doubt her popularity. People will be betting her as if she is Secretariat.
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10-14-2010, 12:09 AM
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#11
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,632
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cpitt84
she will win and i hope to see your response after it. |
Why you gots to go and make it all personal like that?
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10-14-2010, 12:10 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Why you gots to go and make it all personal like that?
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I am geniunely curious on his/her reaction to Zenyatta's win. That's all.
__________________
Ruffian: Lucien Laurin, Secretariat's trainer, said this quote to the press "As God as my witness, she may even be better than Secretariat."
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10-14-2010, 12:46 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cpitt84
I am geniunely curious on his/her reaction to Zenyatta's win. That's all. |
Speaking of absolute, 110% curiosity: What if a reaction looked something like, "Wow! What a great race, and so unexpected! She's extraordinary! Damn shame we didn't see her do so much more in all the non-Breeder's Cup parts!"
Honestly: do you *personally* find the above comment reasonable? Is it a fair reaction? Or is it somehow unfair to recognize ability, but to critique a campaign (a campaign that perhaps framed that ability in a certain way)?
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10-14-2010, 01:56 AM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,557
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BluegrassProf
Speaking of absolute, 110% curiosity: What if a reaction looked something like, "Wow! What a great race, and so unexpected! She's extraordinary! Damn shame we didn't see her do so much more in all the non-Breeder's Cup parts!"
Honestly: do you *personally* find the above comment reasonable? Is it a fair reaction? Or is it somehow unfair to recognize ability, but to critique a campaign (a campaign that perhaps framed that ability in a certain way)?
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Yes professor...this IS a fair reaction.
But it is a lot more impressive (not to mention a lot more profitable), to recognize ability BEFORE the race, rather than after the fact.
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10-14-2010, 06:39 AM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Valuist
You guys (or women) are giving way too much credit to the Zenyatta fan club bettors with their $2 tickets. The big bettors won't touch her for that very reason (among others). Outside of California, nobody in the general public has any idea who she is. Yes, I wish racing was more popular also, but to Joe Public, unless they've won or run well in the Derby, Preakness or Belmont, they aren't known.
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Everyone betting the Breeders Cup knows who she is. The casual bettor is going to see 19-0 and it simply won't matter to them where she earned that record. Undefeated is undefeated.
Besides there are an awful lot of big bettors who aren't as skeptical as you want to believe.
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