What are Zenyatta's chances of winning 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic?

[pandy]

She has beaten a total of 11 GRADE 1 winning mares in her career, that's not including the 10 GR1 horses she beat in the BC Classic, totally she has beaten 21 GR1 winners. I have looked at the ability of her competition, guess what, if you beat 21 GR1 winners, who beat good competition.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Can't you, then i suggest you stop looking at her 13 Gr1 wins and look at the abilities of the horses she has beaten in those races properly, her figures awarded and performances in those races and the horses she is facing in her next Match Up.

Well, there you go. All of the mysteries solved. You just have to look at it properly. Only dirt performances count, the dirt figures are everything, and she is facing a multitude of winners from real big-time races on real dirt.

Even if she does win, it would just be fluke #20, so you could throw that result out too.

jdl

[George Sands]

The following was written by Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets on Aug 13, 2009:

"The most unusual aspect of the comparison between RA and ZEN is that they both have shown the ability to run top efforts on both dirt and poly. I think that there is some justice in your approach of comparing dirt horses to dirt horses and poly and grass horses similarly, but in this case it's not really necessary. Some of Zen's numbers may be slower because of slow paces (even after we make our correction) but her top effort is a point faster than RA's best and Zen has many efforts within a point or two of RA's top. RA's efforts are as a 3yo as against Zen's top form at 4yo, but there are no guarantees that RA will be able to run faster numbers in the future even if she is campaigned as a 4yo (we can only hope that will be the case). They are head and shoulders the best of any mares in modern times and to me it would be hard to pick the likely winner if they were to match up on dirt or poly."

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Well, there you go. All of the mysteries solved. You just have to look at it properly. Only dirt performances count, the dirt figures are everything, and she is facing a multitude of winners from real big-time races on real dirt.

Even if she does win, it would just be fluke #20, so you could throw that result out too.

jdl

There is no mystery to horse racing Jonnie. It's just horse ability v horse ability and what peonple use to measure that ability is entirely up to them. However, if people talked a little less and read a bit more, they would be able to sort the wheat from the chaff in a short period of time.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by George Sands

The following was written by Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets on Aug 13, 2009:

"The most unusual aspect of the comparison between RA and ZEN is that they both have shown the ability to run top efforts on both dirt and poly. I think that there is some justice in your approach of comparing dirt horses to dirt horses and poly and grass horses similarly, but in this case it's not really necessary. Some of Zen's numbers may be slower because of slow paces (even after we make our correction) but her top effort is a point faster than RA's best and Zen has many efforts within a point or two of RA's top. RA's efforts are as a 3yo as against Zen's top form at 4yo, but there are no guarantees that RA will be able to run faster numbers in the future even if she is campaigned as a 4yo (we can only hope that will be the case). They are head and shoulders the best of any mares in modern times and to me it would be hard to pick the likely winner if they were to match up on dirt or poly."

Obviously, yet another goofball that isn't looking at it "properly". Let us all pray that he will start paying attention to the NYRA pre-race show to get his mind right.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

There is no mystery to horse racing Jonnie. It's just horse ability v horse ability and what peonple use to measure that ability is entirely up to them.


If people talk a little less and read a bit more, they should be able to sort the wheat from the chaff in a short period of time.

Well sure, I'm just amazed that more of these peonple haven't stumbled onto this in 100+ years of studying past performances. Then there are the peonple that are mystified when one of those 40-1 chaff horses win.

jdl

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by jonnielu

Well sure, I'm just amazed that more of these peonple haven't stumbled onto this in 100+ years of studying past performances. Then there are the peonple that are mystified when one of those 40-1 chaff horses win.

jdl

Like i said Jonnie, people need to read more and talk less it will help them understand.

[horses4courses]

Quality of opponents aside, slowly-run races have been to Zenyatta's disadvantage during the course of her win streak.

Say what you like about how quickly, or otherwise, she gets from point A to B.
The mare has little in the way of stamina limitations........

[keithw84]

Originally Posted by George Sands

The following was written by Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets on Aug 13, 2009:

"The most unusual aspect of the comparison between RA and ZEN is that they both have shown the ability to run top efforts on both dirt and poly. "

I guess it depends on what a "top effort" is. Is a win automatically a "top effort?" Rachel won at Keeneland, but few would argue that she was a "monster" on poly.

This brings me to the conundrum of Zenyatta on dirt. Her connections say she is better on dirt and yet went two years without running her on dirt. In general, actions speak louder than words.

On the other hand, some of her biggest winning margins were on dirt. Were these more dominant performances, or were the margins simply greater because:
1. Poly surfaces, on average, lead to smaller winning margins, OR
2. Horses who race on poly tend to run with styles similar to Zenyatta more often, so there are more horses closing in the stretch?

[George Sands]

Originally Posted by keithw84

I guess it depends on what a "top effort" is. Is a win automatically a "top effort?"

Friedman is going by Sheet figures, not wins.

[Charlie D]

They are head and shoulders the best of any mares in modern times and to me it would be hard to pick the likely winner if they were to match up on dirt or poly."

Head and shoulders above Rags to Riches???

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Head and shoulders above Rags to Riches???

Obviously, this Friedman guy is a good example of someone that should read a little more and talk a little less.

jdl

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Head and shoulders above Rags to Riches???

The question is what period does " modern times " cover? Riboletta, on her best days, was better. Go for Wand and Bayakoa were routinely better. Gorgeous had her days. What about Lady's Secret? Serena's Song? Beautiful Pleasure? Even Banshee Breeze and Silverbulletday? Inside Information was clearly better on her best days. Heavenly Prize would certainly have been a decent match. And this is off the top of my head.

Too many good horses seem to be being summarily dismissed in people's haste and need to anoint Zenyatta as some sort of deity. That is what I find most unfortunate....not to mention historically dishonest.

[Charlie D]

When those were running tlg, i was otherwise engaged and thats why i leave that to people like yourself, but find RA, Zen "head and shoulders" comment interesting.


It seems the writer of the post George supplied is implying RA and Zen would beat Curlin easily and that is something i can not agree with.

[Bullet Plane]

Originally Posted by George Sands

The following was written by Len Friedman of the Ragozin Sheets on Aug 13, 2009:

"The most unusual aspect of the comparison between RA and ZEN is that they both have shown the ability to run top efforts on both dirt and poly. I think that there is some justice in your approach of comparing dirt horses to dirt horses and poly and grass horses similarly, but in this case it's not really necessary. Some of Zen's numbers may be slower because of slow paces (even after we make our correction) but her top effort is a point faster than RA's best and Zen has many efforts within a point or two of RA's top. RA's efforts are as a 3yo as against Zen's top form at 4yo, but there are no guarantees that RA will be able to run faster numbers in the future even if she is campaigned as a 4yo (we can only hope that will be the case). They are head and shoulders the best of any mares in modern times and to me it would be hard to pick the likely winner if they were to match up on dirt or poly."

Well, for me, the problem with this is, of course, The SHEETs give credit for lengths wide. On poly being wide is no problem, because of the lack of crest on turns - like they have on dirt tracks. So, they are giving her about 4-5 points of unwarranted credit- she typically runs 4 - 8 lengths- wide on the turns due to her lack of early speed.

So, you would have to give Z about a 4-5 vs a 0 or 1 on the Sheets for Rachel. That is, if you factor being wide into the equation. If they were both early speed types you could measure them more accurately with the Sheets.
You would have to assume two things to get Z equal to R on the Sheets:
1) Being wide on the poly is a disadvantage- which it isn't.
2) On dirt Z would get a rail trip- she can't

Therefore, a direct comparision with Z and R is best done with the Beyers. Look at them, they will tell you who the best horse is-