Anyone know how recent Zenyatta foes Rinterval and Zardana did today?

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by FenceBored

Rachel also beat her by 13 in the La Troienne, but let's forget about that.

It was my mistaken assumption that the OP in this thread was sorta' doing a Rachel/Zen thing, so I brought up Rachel. That wasn't his direction at all and it's just about Zen...but since you wish to bring Rachel into it again....

Zen beat a horse who's beaten Rachel...what horse did Rachel beat that subsequently defeated Zenyatta? Hmmmm......
Yes, Rachel defeated Zardana in the La Troienne in the rematch.
Zenyatta has never needed a rematch.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If she does get close like you say (much closer than five lengths), then why is it "a whole other world" for her to face Grade 1 males? It sounds like you're saying she fits well in the race.
I thought with all this talk around here about how she ducks the competition and has been facing nothing but tomato cans, that people were figuring that she'd be way out of the picture in the classic. A complete non factor who will be exposed.

Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.

And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.

I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.

[bks]

PA wrote:
I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.

For one such fellow, have you met the little guy, PA? Short fellow, usually knows his stuff, gave me and the world Storm in May in the Sunshine Millions Sprint in 2007 with a great analysis, but who can't seem to supply a synthetic runner faster than the "slow" Zenyatta and who actually said that Big Z will do well to finish 9th or better in the Classic?

Maybe he's expecting a blanket finish.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.

And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.

I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.

Well I've seen many comments like that on here, and with regard to the accolades I just don't see that either. Do you mean like when the dean of racing writers calling her a mere curiosity, that kind of accolade?
What I do notice is a squadron of negativity on this board that is aligned to counter anyone who steps out of line and supports Zenyatta. I don't get that. I mean look at all the mocking threads and posts revolving around Zenyatta, it far outweighs any accolades around here. It's beyond an obsession with several folks here.

With regard to this idea of it being a whole new world, I don't really agree. The classic is a whole new world for all of them to some extent, correct? The part that is different for Zenyatta (facing better competition) in my mind is offset by the fact that I feel she's better on dirt and at 10F, and has never fully went to the bottom in any of her races. Combine that with the fact she's been to the big dance before and triumphed. I really think the outcome will look a lot like all of her other races, a narrow victory.

[bks]

well put, Jim.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.

I think she will be off the board. Other than that, well put.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Because it's not going to be some walk in the park running down Switch or Rinterval in the last 1/8th or 1/16th of a mile. It's going to be a whole new world.

And I have never said Zenyatta sucks. Quite the opposite. She's a uniquely gifted and talented runner. Nobody denies this. I just don't agree that she has done enough to deserve all of the accolades that have been thrown her way.

I don't know anyone who thinks she will be "way out of the picture" in the classic.

I agree that it will be a whole new world. Especially for Lucky and Blame who have it all to prove @ 10F. Lucky won over 9.5F but that was far from his best effort.

Zenyatta is the favorite in my book. I wouldn't be surprised if she won by further than last year. Not that I suggest taking a short price, as it's a good looking field. On the other hand, we have to be honest. If Zenyatta wins, nobody will be calling Lucky or Blame 'great horses' either.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Well I've seen many comments like that on here, and with regard to the accolades I just don't see that either. Do you mean like when the dean of racing writers calling her a mere curiosity, that kind of accolade?
What I do notice is a squadron of negativity on this board that is aligned to counter anyone who steps out of line and supports Zenyatta. I don't get that. I mean look at all the mocking threads and posts revolving around Zenyatta, it far outweighs any accolades around here. It's beyond an obsession with several folks here.

With regard to this idea of it being a whole new world, I don't really agree. The classic is a whole new world for all of them to some extent, correct? The part that is different for Zenyatta (facing better competition) in my mind is offset by the fact that I feel she's better on dirt and at 10F, and has never fully went to the bottom in any of her races. Combine that with the fact she's been to the big dance before and triumphed. I really think the outcome will look a lot like all of her other races, a narrow victory.

Why is it that people like yourself need to berate anyone who is skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on dirt? It seems like Horse Racings version of political correctness doesn't it?

What's not to understand about Zenyattas competition this year? If you believe that key races are a factor in handicapping then the opposite is also true. Winning races against weak competion is also an important handicapping factor is it not?

What's not to understand that in two years of Cup racing at Santa Anita, not one horse who made its previous start on a dirt track won a race on the synthetic main track"? Given that fact do you think racing on the Pro Ride helped her in last years Breeders Cup and hurt some horses like Summer Bird?

Just because there is push back on this board for anyone ready to declare her the best ever doesn't mean that people hate her. They are skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface. If you want to buy the hype then you have a right to. If other people don't want to buy the hype then they have a right to do that as well. Any handicapper worth his weight is skeptical of an overbet favorite and that is what we will have in the Classic this year.

Are there time tested and established handicapping factors that work against Zenyatta in the upcoming Classic or not? If she can overcome them and win I will be the first to stand up and applaud her. She will be one of the best ever in my book. Until then I will choose to be skeptical.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by andymays

Why is it that people like yourself need to berate anyone who is skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on dirt? It seems like Horse Racings version of political correctness doesn't it?

What's not to understand about Zenyattas competition this year? If you believe that key races are a factor in handicapping then the opposite is also true. Winning races against weak competion is also an important handicapping factor is it not?

That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness .

What's not to understand that in two years of Cup racing at Santa Anita, not one horse who made its previous start on a dirt track won a race on the synthetic main track"? Given that fact do you think racing on the Pro Ride helped her in last years Breeders Cup and hurt some horses like Summer Bird?

Again nonsensical. She is a synthetics horse going to dirt which isn't nearly as problematic, judging by her, Lucky's and Blind Luck's efforts this year. The other way around doesn't apply so why even bring it up.

Just because there is push back on this board for anyone ready to declare her the best ever doesn't mean that people hate her. They are skeptical of her ability to beat grade 1 males on a dirt surface. If you want to buy the hype then you have a right to. If other people don't want to buy the hype then they have a right to do that as well. Any handicapper worth his weight is skeptical of an overbet favorite and that is what we will have in the Classic this year.

Are there time tested and established handicapping factors that work against Zenyatta in the upcoming Classic or not? If she can overcome them and win I will be the first to stand up and applaud her. She will be one of the best ever in my book. Until then I will choose to be skeptical.

She already is. What she ran on is irrelevant. There is a top and bottom of the ladder, simple as. She doesn't posses some special polytrack gene that every other horse on the planet lacks. She is just a superior athlete.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by gm10

That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness .



Again nonsensical. She is a synthetics horse going to dirt which isn't nearly as problematic, judging by her, Lucky's and Blind Luck's efforts this year. The other way around doesn't apply.



She already is. What she ran on is irrelevant. There is a top and bottom of the ladder, simple as. She doesn't posses some special polytrack gene that every other horse on the planet lacks. She is just a superior athlete.

Another broken promise by gm10 at the expense of the board. What happened to "Goodbye" in post #26?

[gm10]

Originally Posted by andymays

Another broken promise by gm10 at the expense of the board. What happened to "Goodbye" in post #26?

A promise broken at the expense of the board? You are exceeding your own standards today.

I was only going to watch some TV, Andy, it was evening for me.

[jonnielu]

Originally Posted by andymays

Zenyatta will be overbet.

How can anyone disagree with this? Where am I?

Apparently, somewhat off the mark. Look, this year's BC is going to be real race horses, going in real horse races, on real dirt. Surely, that will make all of the difference in the world.

Sure, many in the crowd will bet Zenyatta, just because she has managed to win 19 horse races in a row. But, these are the great unwashed, what do they know about handicapping a horse race? Hell, these people refuse to recognize how slow Zenyatta is, and that it is only the artificial surface that has been enabling her to win.

Sure, this is a large crowd of unwashed, and most of them will step up to wager their $2, but I doubt that will even show up in the pool against the kind of major money that the "great handicapper" and his legions of followers will be wagering on the fastest horse.

All serious horseplayers know that the fastest horse always wins on real dirt. And, some of the most real dirt in the entire world is found right there in Louisville, KY. Hell, back in '73, two horses broke the 10f record in the same race. How did they do that? The realest of real dirt, that's how.

Sure, we all know that poly has propelled Zenyatta to 17 of her 19 wins, but she is just one horse. Look at how many horses have been propelled to their greatest performance by Churchill Downs real dirt.

Certainly, this is one huge factor that the un-sophisticated Zenyatta fan is completely unaware of. But, the "great handicapper" has been onto this cutting edge knowledge for 40 years. And, he's been telling people about it the whole time. Just look at the record, here is a man that knows about real race horses running 10f on real dirt at Churchill Downs.

Yeah, the morning line guy might make Zenyatta the favorite because of the same uninformed sentimentality, but everybody knows what idiots those guys are when it comes to making a "proper" morning line. Surely, the uncalculable swarms of serious handicappers will override that as they pound the fastest horse down to 6/5.

Keep in mind that the "whales" will likely be right there too, because they are also "serious handicappers".

Then, it is most likely that the majority of Zenyatta zealots will back down to show, especially since the "real dirt" thing has been getting explained to them for years now.

jdl

[cj]

Originally Posted by gm10

That makes no sense. The concept of a key race is only applicable in the presence of a key race. In the absence of it, it is nonsensical to even mention it. Which key race did RA come out of when she won the Preakness .

There are plenty of "negative" key races. Pretty much all of Zenyatta's 2010 efforts fit the bill. None of the others have returned to do anything. It is actually a good tool for a bettor to have.

[depalma113]

Zenyatta will be even money or lower.

[gm10]

Originally Posted by cj

There are plenty of "negative" key races. Pretty much all of Zenyatta's 2010 efforts fit the bill. None of the others have returned to do anything. It is actually a good tool for a bettor to have.

I think it is less than six months ago that you said that you don't look at how horses do after the race to judge their performance. I guess it doesn't matter in the case of RA anyway because she broke the hearts of her opponents who could therefore no longer win races.

Anyway, in the case of Zenyatta I think there is no real key. Switch is a quality filly, and running her down wasn't easy. She has a chance in the FM Sprint. St Trinians is quality and will show it next year. Just Jenda won a G2 not so long ago. And of course there is also the unforgettable Zardana.

Anyway, I maintain that the concept of key races doesn't apply here. The only two who gave her a race were St Trinians and Switch. None of the two have come back yet.