Whales: A chink in the armor?

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by vegasone

These were some quickie SQL statements so possibly wrong, but I think it has to do with the 10.01and 10, and 20.01and $20. That was the way the SQL statement were put in. The main issue was the $20 and up that was the center of the conversation.

Would have to verify once I get to my main computers sometime in the future.

I noticed the overlaps and figured that was probably the issue. Still very interesting info.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

This . I would say, is about 99.9 % correct.....sorry no 2010


JAN1 - AUG 2 2018

TOTAL RACES = 23,233

<= 1 = 3982 .......... 17 %
>1 & <= 4 = 11,565 .......... 50 %
>4 & <=9 = 5032 .......... 22 %
>9 = 2654 .......... 11 %

can you make a living on a 50% category?

It's that 11% category that is enticing. It's half again what the $10.01 to $20 is, but the sky is the limit on return, rather than being capped at $20. Patience, discipline, and guts are all you need. Naturally, all those traits are at a premium in this game.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

The way I understand it, they aren't winning it. They are playing for a high .90s ROI and taking profit for the most part in rebates.

I finished that book "Six Habits of Successful Bettors" and Dahlmann's story of leaving Maryland for Vegas, and the OTB he frequented laying off 32 employees due to the loss of his handle is very germain to this discussion.

It's hard to be in the "high .90s" when you make the kinds of bets that these whales are making. If they were making smaller, more focused wagers...then, who knows what their ROI would be? But, since they've been offered the generous rebates...they have created a business model through which they can generate the most profit for themselves. The tracks benefit bigtime by the presence of these Whales, though...that's why they roll the red carpet out for them. So...you can't exactly call them "leeches".

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It's hard to be in the "high .90s" when you make the kinds of bets that these whales are making. If they were making smaller, more focused wagers...then, who knows what their ROI would be? But, since they've been offered the generous rebates...they have created a business model through which they can generate the most profit for themselves. The tracks benefit bigtime by the presence of these Whales, though...that's why they roll the red carpet out for them. So...you can't exactly call them "leeches".

Even taking the money part out completely.....to play at something like -2% day in-day out,not cherry picking spots is nothing short of amazing.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

Hey Dave, thanks for the response and the effort to correct the perception I put forward.

Two questions, and very likely you've answered them in the past.

1) How many teams do you feel are out there that you would classify as whales?

2) Are any of them proactive in the support of the industry, or are they just very, very, very big leaches disguised as whales? It would seem the models they have so laboriously constructed wouldn't work in any other endeavor, so the health of the over all horse racing industry would seem of some import to them.

Thanks in advance.

#1. I count six, but not dialed in as much as I used to be.

#2. They're simply taking advantage of their expertise in this particular investment medium.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

#1. I count six, but not dialed in as much as I used to be.

#2. They're simply taking advantage of their expertise in this particular investment medium.

And the fact they have a lower cost to play.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

The way I understand it, they aren't winning it. They are playing for a high .90s ROI and taking profit for the most part in rebates.

I finished that book "Six Habits of Successful Bettors" and Dahlmann's story of leaving Maryland for Vegas, and the OTB he frequented laying off 32 employees due to the loss of his handle is very germain to this discussion.

I don't know how Dahlmann could have required 32 employees at the OTB.

I would encourage all people who are disgruntled with the rebate players to go out and get a rebate account and accumulate untold riches. It's easy you don't even have to win.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I don't know how Dahlmann could have required 32 employees at the OTB.

I would encourage all people who are disgruntled with the rebate players to go out and get a rebate account and accumulate untold riches. It's easy you don't even have to win.

Doubt he did, but also no doubt the loss of his handle could have cost that many jobs. The extra profit simply made their salaries tolerable, without him, sayanara

[AltonKelsey]

Not sure -2% is all that amazing considering the ample resources and manpower/computer power they have.


Who's to say there isn't a nice dose of inside information that contributes to that?


Doesn't take much to get to 0 takeout if you know some runners are not 100%

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by jay68802

And the fact they have a lower cost to play.

... which they deserve by reason of pushing through more volume.

I don't know how Dahlmann could have required 32 employees at the OTB.

I would encourage all people who are disgruntled with the rebate players to go out and get a rebate account and accumulate untold riches. It's easy you don't even have to win.

If you do the math (based upon hours), you will find that the absolute minimum for covering all the shifts with enough employees to make the bets is around 22-23. Then you add some supervisors, someone to write the payroll checks, etc., and a couple of people to analyze data and a couple more to write code.

32 is pretty much bare bones.

"It's easy you don't even have to win." - Yes, and all you have to do is play about 80% of all pools, in 80% of all races, at 80% of all tracks.

A fact that I became acutely aware of a decade ago is that these endeavors start with at least a $400k investment just for start up and research. (Does not count the bankroll.)

That money goes for salaries while the system is being developed and tested.

And, as has been said over and over... not all of the startup groups win. For every big, successful group there are probably at least 2 or 3 who have failed.

Not sure -2% is all that amazing considering the ample resources and manpower/computer power they have.

Who's to say there isn't a nice dose of inside information that contributes to that?

Doesn't take much to get to 0 takeout if you know some runners are not 100%

That is simply not a successful business plan to beat the game with the pressure of having to push big money through the window every month. If you really think these guys are winning based upon insider information, imagine the manpower it would take to collect all that info on the backside at 80% of the tracks in 80% of the races, etc.

You might need 4 or 5 employees researching insider info at each track.

The bottom line is that these guys win because they deserve to win. They deserve to win because they invested time and money to make it happen.

As for the question, "Are they good for racing?" Of course not. They draw money out of the system just like a winning poker player is like an extra rake at the table.

But what is the industry to do? Bar players who win too much?

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I don't know how Dahlmann could have required 32 employees at the OTB.

I would encourage all people who are disgruntled with the rebate players to go out and get a rebate account and accumulate untold riches. It's easy you don't even have to win.

I don't know that he required them personally, but the OTb could afford them due to his handle.

Edit: What Alton said

[AltonKelsey]

Theoretically, a whale could make it known that ACCURATE information would be well rewarded, and the info would then come to them. No 4 or 5 men on the ground needed.


I have no knowledge that this happens, other than , how could it not?


Not even sure it's illegal ;-)

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

I don't know that he required them personally, but the OTb could afford them due to his handle.

Edit: What Alton said

Ah... I misunderstood.

I was referring to the employees needed to make the bets for the PLAYER!

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

...If you do the math (based upon hours), you will find that the absolute minimum for covering all the shifts with enough employees to make the bets is around 22-23. Then you add some supervisors, someone to write the payroll checks, etc., and a couple of people to analyze data and a couple more to write code.

32 is pretty much bare bones.

I am talking about OTB employees not people employed by Dahlman.

[DeltaLover]

Too much metaphysics in this thread..

Good related reading: Why urban legends are more powerful than ever