The Travers Stakes ( Grade I ) 8/26/2023

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by bisket

In the Haskell Tapit Trice was making headway at the end of the backstretch when 60 to 1 Awesome Strong racing with the leaders folded in front of him. He went from just behind the leaders to last in a matter of strides. Jock had to shift him to the right to get out of the way and regroup. A good excuse being overlooked by the public.... that might be the overlay I'm looking for.

He got shuffled back a bit after getting into contention, but he didn’t do much running in the stretch. I’m expecting a better effort Saturday, but he hasn’t given me any indication he’s as good as the best in the division. What price is fair in that field?

[bisket]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He got shuffled back a bit after getting into contention, but he didn’t do much running in the stretch. I’m expecting a better effort Saturday, but he hasn’t given me any indication he’s as good as the best in the division. What price is fair in that field?

North of 10 to 1, but at those odds a lot of people will throw him in the place or show on their tickets, so he might not be a value in the exacta and tri. pools. Only if he finishes first will he offer some value.

[ubercapper]

Scotland and Forte for me as win contenders, particularly with National Treasure taking blinkers off.

https://www.equibase.com/content/ana...reanalysis.cfm

[jefftune]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I dont get it either but he is the type of horse to love, always gets bet, rarely wins. Accounts for the takeout.

Rarely wins? He's 4-for-8 lifetime.

[Robert Fischer]

Forte is a talent. I know he's a contender and possibly the one to beat/clear-favorite.

Arcangelo is very dressed up off a dream trip, and an enthusiastic moment with the trainer, and will be over-bet. Antonucci's moment and the social media sharing of it was maybe the best thing for the sport all year.

Mage is unreliable. I don't think he's a fraud, I just think he ran his very best a couple of times and the race flow, trip, etc... didn't hamper him if not aiding him.

Tapit Trice is a horse I believe needs a slow pace or at least a group-backstretch-breather. He has to secure position without burning a ton of energy. In the Belmont, Saez had to make a very long drive attempt and then was matched with a G1 Angel of Empire. Too much to ask.
If you like National Security, a flow that would favor National Security may also favor Tapit Trice (NS secures lead at break decent pace into turn, maybe Scotland rates to his outside, and then John Velazquez tries to moderate the pace entering the backstretch if no one is truly pressing at that point. There, TTrice can mosey into inclusion...

Disarm is a horse I need to study further to form an educated opinion on.

Scotland - I don't know. In deep waters here, but is a solid horse.

National Treasure looks like a win contender to me. He's belonged with this group since the Juvenile. Preakness was a sham, but he showed he could be readied for a race and perform the task. National Treasure is not a Belmont horse, but he did some running before hitting the wall after going a solid 12f pace and doing it after a bit wide on the 1st turn, then didn't relent until hounded on the turn and Arcangelo making first run to to his inside. National Treasure was in front of the others at that point (over 10f at that point), but unlikely to hold off that group through the remainder of the distance. The morning line that he is less likely than Mage or Arcangelo is a joke, as is some of the sentiment here that he's a non-contender. Works also very strong.
I don't know if he can beat Forte or another member's top effort, but he's a contender.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Forte is a talent. I know he's a contender and possibly the one to beat/clear-favorite.

Arcangelo is very dressed up off a dream trip, and an enthusiastic moment with the trainer, and will be over-bet. Antonucci's moment and the social media sharing of it was maybe the best thing for the sport all year.

Mage is unreliable. I don't think he's a fraud, I just think he ran his very best a couple of times and the race flow, trip, etc... didn't hamper him if not aiding him.

Tapit Trice is a horse I believe needs a slow pace or at least a group-backstretch-breather. He has to secure position without burning a ton of energy. In the Belmont, Saez had to make a very long drive attempt and then was matched with a G1 Angel of Empire. Too much to ask.
If you like National Security, a flow that would favor National Security may also favor Tapit Trice (NS secures lead at break decent pace into turn, maybe Scotland rates to his outside, and then John Velazquez tries to moderate the pace entering the backstretch if no one is truly pressing at that point. There, TTrice can mosey into inclusion...

Disarm is a horse I need to study further to form an educated opinion on.

Scotland - I don't know. In deep waters here, but is a solid horse.

National Treasure looks like a win contender to me. He's belonged with this group since the Juvenile. Preakness was a sham, but he showed he could be readied for a race and perform the task. National Treasure is not a Belmont horse, but he did some running before hitting the wall after going a solid 12f pace and doing it after a bit wide on the 1st turn, then didn't relent until hounded on the turn and Arcangelo making first run to to his inside. National Treasure was in front of the others at that point (over 10f at that point), but unlikely to hold off that group through the remainder of the distance. The morning line that he is less likely than Mage or Arcangelo is a joke, as is some of the sentiment here that he's a non-contender. Works also very strong.
I don't know if he can beat Forte or another member's top effort, but he's a contender.

I think if Johnny starts to walk the dog on the backstretch, I think Javy on Arcangelo will go after him, if he can get outside to challenge. I think Javy liked where he was in the Belmont because Arcangelo was a little short for that race. This time Javy is outside the horse most likely running with him. Forte and Arcangelo have the same time until around 7 furlongs in the Belmont. Arcangelo improved out of the gate that day. Disarm and Scotland are the wildcards here. They could be running outside Fort and Arcangelo. If that's the case I like National Treasure a lot more. In my opinion Arcangelo needs to get involved somewhere between 6 and 7 furlongs to win. His biggest advantage is stamina, and he's a fast galloper. I do feel people are looking past National Treasure as well.

[bisket]

I think what most people are overlooking is that Archangelo at these longer distances can and should be pressing the pace. He doesn't run well enough early to be involved in the pace at short distances. The likely pace in 1 1/4 mile or 1 1/2 mile races is more to his liking. Where was he in the Belmont?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bisket

I think what most people are overlooking is that Archangelo at these longer distances can and should be pressing the pace. He doesn't run well enough early to be involved in the pace at short distances. The likely pace in 1 1/4 mile or 1 1/2 mile races is more to his liking. Where was he in the Belmont?

Arcangelo could probably push inside as he did in the belmont and press the pace and/or rush up to the inside early on the backstretch.

I don't recommend it, but he's coming off that highlight Belmont from that style. Feels like they believe they have the horse and want to to keep him thriving and workmanlike works to maintain that condition.

win or lose, contend or not; he's a cool horse. Arrogate and a cool Tapit Mare.
Grays - He's more tactical and tight stride and has serious 'demeanor' than Tapit Trice. Tapit Trice appears to have longer reaching stride once he reaches the stretch. It isn't easy to tell everything.

With the idea that Arcangelo should be pressing the pace; We can look at a couple historical runnings to try to learn.


2015 -

YouTube

Frosted. Frosted pressed the great American Pharaoh and then Keen Ice had his dream trip and top performance wrapped into one... We could picture a horse like Forte, Mage, Scotland, even an improved Disarm in the role of Keen Ice.
Both American Pharaoh and Keen Ice held on for the Trifecta in spite of the exhausting work on the lead.
Can also say that National Treasure is weaker than American Pharoah and may yield in that scenario...

2019 -

YouTube

Tacitus. Tacitus pressed Mucho Gusto. Similarity in Baffert also trained Mucho Gusto. Same deal, Code of Honor stalked and pounced to benefit their work... We could picture a horse like Forte, Mage, Scotland, even an improved Disarm in the role of Code of Honor. Very similar scenario.


this is all assuming they go with your gameplan. Could be different here.

[bisket]

I think Javy wants to get the jump on Forte and avoid that one on one battle. They would like to be out front and not come back to him. Forte has one speed and everyone has been coming back to him. You want to be out front and not come back. I look at pace at 1 1/4 mile race as 3 stages, early pace, intermediate and late pace. Arcangelo has great intermediate pace. Look at his action when Johnny takes the field outside and he’s free to run in The Belmont. Yes it was on the turn, but he continued to widen in the straight. He did that easily, Javy didn’t move muscle while the other jocks are all over their mounts to start running. Javy didn’t get after him until late. The lead increased with that nice easy action. That’s what I like.

[Hoops McCann]

any chance that it won't be wet tmrw??? ��

[bisket]

Arcangelo’s action might not look fast at a mile, but in the mid to late stages at 1 1/4 mile that’s fast.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by Hoops McCann

any chance that it won't be wet tmrw??? ��

Not looking good.

Essentially 10% to upwards of 60% all the way through post time of the Travers tomorrow.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by bisket

Look at his action when Johnny takes the field outside and he’s free to run in The Belmont. Yes it was on the turn, but he continued to widen in the straight. He did that easily, Javy didn’t move muscle while the other jocks are all over their mounts to start running. Javy didn’t get after him until late. The lead increased with that nice easy action. That’s what I like.

this all should have happened given he was getting a dream inside trip at 12 furlongs.

National Treasure wasn't 100% from the Preakness effort turnaround, and is not a true 12 furlong horse. He was maybe 3 wide around the first turn and on an honest pace in the Belmont. National Treasure charted on the lead at 10f by a head(which doesn't mean Arcangelo couldn't have passed him earlier if it was not a 12f race). National Treasure lead all others until 11.25 furlongs. Arcangelo broke well and followed Tapit Shoes on the rail getting a wonderful 1st turn and pocketed forward position within his natural effort while some others put in work.

Arcangelo draws inside enough again. Have to think imitate the Belmont is at least one thought to connections and rider.

[Aerocraft67]

No die-hard frontrunners in this long route, but National Treasure has only won on the lead and Scotland can’t afford to get behind these classy laterunners. Best chance for is to track closely, as projected, blinkers on. That should keep the pace honest, but no meltdown or wire-to-wire steal. The TFUS pace projector looks very formful.

Forte: A few chinks in the armor deflect a short price
Produced two speed figure advances on wet tracks, and he has a big “wet” Tomlinson rating. He didn’t match his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Beyer until he ran second as the favorite in the Belmont. Although, he did win the two Derby prep races in between with the lower figs. He merely nosed one of only four foes to win last time, although he did battle aside Angel of Empire to get by. Not way against him, but others viable at better prices.

Arcangelo: Can’t deny this precocious contender; prefer over ML favorite
Won Belmont Stakes with aplomb fifth time out, after beating the favorite to win the G3 Peter Pan. Only Mage and maybe Scotland rival that precocity. Won three times from where it projects to land in the pace mix, loosely in the midpack tier with Forte. Another move forward seems at least as likely as regression after several sharp 5f works at Saratoga. Castellano opts to ride this one over his other mount here—Derby winner Mage. May wind up the favorite or an underlaid second choice; ML seems fair.

Tapit Trice: Usable as double-digit sixth choice after disappointing Triple Crown campaign
Promising Derby trail fizzled on the day, revived with a “mild bid” to lose place by a nose to today’s favorite in the Belmont, then “lacked a rally” to hit the Haskell super after dodging a fading runner and going wide. Tied for last on the morning line at 12-1 seems pretty generous for a classy horse that could turn things around in its 8th race. And yet, probably an underlay beneath vertical winners.

Mage: Derby winner absolutely playable third choice
Even the disappointing Preakness added another G1 in-the-money finish to Mage’s short resumé. Placed behind a Haskell surprise winner ahead of the favorite and today’s rival to the inside last time to earn another competitive figure—and that G1 was merely a prep for this race. Late running rating rivaled only by less-inspiring Tapit Trice, modest field size should reduce pace trouble. Will leverage dampened odds prominently.

National Treasure: Pass on unfavorable setup here
Won the Preakness over regressing Mage in third, but barely held off Blazing Sevens. That one disappointed for show as odds-on favorite in the Curlin next, won wire-to-wire by today’s rival Scotland. Not way outclassed or overmatched for the lead and can still improve, but hard to see a frontrunning path to victory here—the only way he’s won. I appreciate the contrarian PA interest here, but I can't see him getting loose or holding off enough of these classy late runners to contend. Especially at single-digit fourth choice.

Disarm: Could outrun odds with favorable setup closer to the pace
Ran fourth in a Jim Dandy field of five behind winner Forte, but still earned a respectable 119 TFUS speed figure. He beat a modest field in the G3 Matt Winn before that, after hitting the Derby superfecta underneath Mage—the last time he raced on a dry track. Projects to sit off the two pace setters to his inside and out, with enough late run to hold off closers. Setup could make his day at a price.

Scotland: Precocious and versatile with upside—how far will it carry today?
Possesses only triple-digit TFUS speed figures in only four races, with a 117 last out over 9f on this track. Only Mage can top that precocity. Projects to get the lead over rival National Treasure, who may battle for it, but Scotland also won two back from 7th. Field-lowest late rating by a few points, but plenty of upside in this one, and only one career loss, by a nose. Distance goes farther and waters get deeper here, but totally usable tied for sixth choice.

Ranking in tiers by betting interest:
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I will try to beat the top two favorites in the exacta, and allow them with price horses in the deeper exotics. Something like this:

Win:
Exacta: key with & , maybe (underneath) at a price
Trifecta: add
Superfecta: add or , not both

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

this all should have happened given he was getting a dream inside trip at 12 furlongs.

National Treasure wasn't 100% from the Preakness effort turnaround, and is not a true 12 furlong horse. He was maybe 3 wide around the first turn and on an honest pace in the Belmont. National Treasure charted on the lead at 10f by a head(which doesn't mean Arcangelo couldn't have passed him earlier if it was not a 12f race). National Treasure lead all others until 11.25 furlongs. Arcangelo broke well and followed Tapit Shoes on the rail getting a wonderful 1st turn and pocketed forward position within his natural effort while some others put in work.

Arcangelo draws inside enough again. Have to think imitate the Belmont is at least one thought to connections and rider.

I don’t think National Treasure will fold, and he was fine until 1 1/4 mile. He lost his action after that. If the pace is slower than the Belmont I think Javy doesn’t want to be in the pocket. I think he will try to stake claim to 3 and 4 path early if he can. Hoping he can have the option to press if it’s slow and stake claim to the 2 path around the Far turn. The blinks on Forte was to get him involved earlier to be closer to Arcangelo instead of letting him get loose. Unlike Forte’s other races two pace horses, National Treasure and Geaux Rocket Ride don’t figure to back up. The blinks did their job. With all the conversations about the stretch in the Dandy it’s been overlooked Forte was much closer to the pace than earlier races.