Skinner just scratched

[Michael]

Per Steve Byk's podcast.

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[sovereign]

Somebody (a horsie) has the bug and could be spreading it.

[Michael]

I'll play the fool. Is there a reason equibase hasn't updated any of these scratches?

[woodbinepmi]

Damn! I was going to use him. We may have a match race before tomorrow afternoon with all these scratches.

[burnsy]

This is why I laugh at those “fools gold” of a futures bet . It’s a license to steal for the house .

[ranchwest]

It is my understanding that a typical thoroughbred temperature is about 99.5 to 101.5. What temperature do you think it would probably take to scratch a horse from the Derby?

[Robert Fischer]

damn... he was going to be an underlay at like 25/1

no shot, but he could've got 4th if got a favorable flow.

a lot of regular players liked him

[Michael]

He was THE definition of a wise guy horse. When the smart money gets so large it becomes dumb money. Now he's scratched.

He was going to be an underlay.


My general thoughts as of now:

Angel of Empire is likely to vie with Forte for favortism. Forte will sit 4/1 and be 7/2. I would still stand by that guess as there's no way he can be 5/1.

Disarm looked so good that everyone in Kentucky is playing telephone and I know about him looking to out run his odds here on Long Island. I still think he has no chance to win. Under maybe.

Verifying thought it was funny when he threw his rider the other day

I was wrong to say the oaks was the best way to get value in the derby. (wet paint just has the pace advantage - no bet for me)

[Aerocraft67]

Skinner was a very logical inclusion as a companion to early-running contenders because he was the strongest late pace factor.

Now what? Sun Thunder? King Russell? They'll be tied for last in the early going—and perhaps the finish. Sun Thunder now has top late run, but little else to make his case. Nearly half the field can best King Russell with late pace.

The crowd will probably look to Angel of Empire. BRIS labels him an "S," with the other two mentioned (and Mandarin Hero?). He's passed eight horses. He fills the slot for late runner.

But half a dozen horses look to be in front of him with equally strong prospects for late pace, according to TFUS. Even lowly Raise Cain has a better combined early/late profile.

If you do a simple projection of speed figure improvement, Angel of Empire stands out considerably. Many like him outright. I agree with Michael that he takes money. Skinner's defection bumps him from wise guy contender to questionable chalk.

That would narrow the premium for Tapit Trice into a more compelling proposition with similar pace profile. Or even Forte, who has a solidly superior pace profile. Or Hit Show for a huge price. Or legit mid-priced condenders like Mage and Two Phil's.

Angel of Empire is still not for me. And with that, I usher him into the winner's circle.