When you know you are "THERE"

[EMD4ME]

Who here can honestly say, I don't need to ever work again, not because they hit the lotto or have a monster real estate net income BUT because they can honestly say they can make a living on horse racing?

For reasons that are vital, do not ask me any questions, this is for everyone's open discussion. I, for certain reasons, can only play a limited role, if this thread has any life. Apologies in advance.

At the very least, I'd like to know why yes vs. why no someone is/vs. isn't a position to retire from this glorious game.

[Robert Fischer]

not me.


I think it would be a matter of bankroll growth.
If your bankroll was growing (not from 1 huge score, but from many consistent profits), then it's pretty clear that you have a revenue stream. If that revenue stream starts to compete with the 'opportunity costs' of holding down your day job, then you are "THERE".

would be nice

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

not me.


I think it would be a matter of bankroll growth.
If your bankroll was growing (not from 1 huge score, but from many consistent profits), then it's pretty clear that you have a revenue stream. If that revenue stream starts to compete with the 'opportunity costs' of holding down your day job, then you are "THERE".

would be nice

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

[2low]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

Tax free until you get caught at least.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by 2low

Tax free until you get caught at least.

[YT="Rebates are tax free under IRS revenue code law"]sVcn4lznUOs[/YT]

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

If someone worked for $100,000 or so, that's $60,000 a year after taxes. Or, almost $1160 a week net.

If someone wagered, $70,000 a month, at just 7% rebates, that's $4,900 a month or appx $1200 a week TAX FREE.

If that someone just broke even, they are making more having fun with a hobby VS. working.

Just food for thought.....

Here's my starting comment to this dialog, "You NEVER know when you're going to win a bet". The only time you can truly say, "You're there", is when the IRS has you jacketed as a full-time gambler, paying taxes for at least 3 out of the last 5 years on net winnings.....Toughest way to make an easy buck.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Here's my starting comment to this dialog, "You NEVER know when you're going to win a bet". The only time you can truly say, "You're there", is when the IRS has you jacketed as a full-time gambler, paying taxes for at least 3 out of the last 5 years on net winnings.....Toughest way to make an easy buck.

Absolutely right RR, you never 100% know, that you will win a bet.

As a sharpie, you DO KNOW, in your stomach, when you are making an AWESOME bet. It's not every day but you do KNOW.

I'll add, when you expect to win everytime (because you're doing so well-not because of some dellusional thought), WHEN you bet, you know you're right there.

When you lose and find it to be annoying or a rare occurrence, you are right there.

When you lose and KNOW exactly why you lost BUT have this awesome feeling of: I may have lost today but gained info to help me crush tomorrow, you are there.

I'll give an example:

Oct 23rd's 9th race. I had the 2nd n 3rd finishers to close a nice pick 4. I missed the gary gullo FTS winner. PICK 4 paid $26K plus.

I marked my 2 choices to play back as they were VERY good in defeat. I calmly walked out of the track on 10/23 as I knew that my rare mistake would come back to me 10 fold possibly.

I crushed the 2nd finisher next out.

More importantly, the 3rd finisher came back to run this past Sat. He paid a paltry even money to win.

Even more importantly, he keyed ( I singled only him ) in a sequence that I liked a lot. Played it for a buck. Pick 5 paid $6203.50 for .50. What also helped was knowing the 1st race favorite had galloped out to the right very meakly after his average last start. Combining those 2 opinions, was very lucrative.

Point is, when you lose and feel like you're setting up a win, IMHO, you know you're there.......

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Absolutely right RR, you never 100% know, that you will win a bet.

As a sharpie, you DO KNOW, in your stomach, when you are making an AWESOME bet. It's not every day but you do KNOW.

I'll add, when you expect to win everytime (because you're doing so well-not because of some dellusional thought), WHEN you bet, you know you're right there.

When you lose and find it to be annoying or a rare occurrence, you are right there.

When you lose and KNOW exactly why you lost BUT have this awesome feeling of: I may have lost today but gained info to help me crush tomorrow, you are there.

I'll give an example:

Oct 23rd's 9th race. I had the 2nd n 3rd finishers to close a nice pick 4. I missed the gary gullo FTS winner. PICK 4 paid $26K plus.

I marked my 2 choices to play back as they were VERY good in defeat. I calmly walked out of the track on 10/23 as I knew that my rare mistake would come back to me 10 fold possibly.

I crushed the 2nd finisher next out.

More importantly, the 3rd finisher came back to run this past Sat. He paid a paltry even money to win.

Even more importantly, he keyed ( I singled only him ) in a sequence that I liked a lot. Played it for a buck. Pick 5 paid $6203.50 for .50. What also helped was knowing the 1st race favorite had galloped out to the right very meakly after his average last start. Combining those 2 opinions, was very lucrative.

Point is, when you lose and feel like you're setting up a win, IMHO, you know you're there.......

My experience is a little different than yours. When I bet, my expectation is NEVER that I will cash that particular wager...because I know that my possibility of losing a given bet stands at better than 70%. Tearing tickets has numbed me to such an extent that I am totally indifferent when it comes to losing in a particular race...or a particular day. Losing bets is the most "normal" thing in the world to me...and a losing race elicits no emotion from me whatsoever. A WIN, on the other hand, being the much rarer occurrence, WILL occasionally draw out a look of modest amusement from me.

As far as playing horses "professionally" is concerned...I would advise it only if the horseplayer has been blessed with a very understanding spouse.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My experience is a little different than yours. When I bet, my expectation is NEVER that I will cash that particular wager...because I know that my possibility of losing a given bet stands at better than 70%. Tearing tickets has numbed me to such an extent that I am totally indifferent when it comes to losing in a particular race...or a particular day. Losing bets is the most "normal" thing in the world to me...and a losing race elicits no emotion from me whatsoever. A WIN, on the other hand, being the much rarer occurrence, WILL occasionally draw out a look of modest amusement from me.

As far as playing horses "professionally" is concerned...I would advise it only if the horseplayer has been blessed with a very understanding spouse.

....that very understanding spouse also ought to be independently wealthy and not really bothered by you not being around much nor bothered by you not really having any other interests other than horse playing....I have yet to meet a women who met all these criteria...most women I know want a man to be part of their life....a real part.....being a pro at this takes 80 plus hours a week I would imagine....what woman would put up with that?

[2low]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

[YT="Rebates are tax free under IRS revenue code law"]sVcn4lznUOs[/YT]

Honest question, not trying to be a jerk. I assume you are relying on the fact that rebates on purchases in general are non-taxable (getting a $2K rebate when buying a car, for instance)?

If so, I'll grant that rebates on gambling wagers are a gray area in that, to my knowledge, the IRS has never stated one way or the other whether gambling rebates are exempt under the law. However, I have a difficult time believing they would consider a rebate on a wager to be the same as a rebate on the purchase of a personal item. But, as I said, they haven't ruled as far as I know.

I am not eligible for rebates, so I don't care to do more research. But, now that I've thought about it, if I were eligible for rebates and made lots of money from them, I'd probably treat them as tax free and hold tax payment money in reserve until the statute of limitations passed on my return just in case.

By the way, I'd love a source if you have one and I'm completely wrong. I'm not opposed to being corrected, and it would add a lot to what could be a very fun thread IMO.

And now, to answer your question: I can't depend on horse racing for a living right now, and probably never will. I think gambling profitably as a side income is great. However, relying on gambling as the sole source of income would not be for me.

Having lived through the on-line poker fiasco of a few years ago, I don't trust that it can't all be taken away with the swipe of some jerk's pen. Three or ten years of professional horse handicapping isn't a very good resume stuffer.

Also, who's to say that my edge (if I had one) would survive? Age may make me dumber than I am already What then? I'll admit that I am jealous of people who can do it though...

[CincyHorseplayer]

When does knowing you are good and have a yearly schedule at tracks across the country to provide you with positive expectation plays become merely cowardice because you don't do it?

The negative rationalizations, " I have to pay off exorbitant debts etc etc". It seems as if I need to have the world around me this safe and tidy place, far away from debt and bills, and I guess reality to think it's right to make the leap. Other than doing so a few months here and there throughout the years and with decent to mediocre but not disastrous results I've never pushed on. There IMO has to be a substantial enough of a bankroll for betting and an emergency fund to stick it out for at least 6 months before I would try. What would you recommend?

I struggle with this question often. Mind you the first year I realized I could win playing casually, across the course of a calendar year was 2001. I have enough losing streaks where I'll lose say 40-60% of the money in play for 20-30 bets before it normalizes but I am able to be fairly consistent. I get waves of satisfaction and self confidence with alternating experiences of temporary helplessness to keep me humbled. When and under what circumstances is the time right? And when are you merely just succumbing to cowardice? I unfortunately do hit that wall. Most of it has to do with an underdeveloped ability to crush races or sequences than being a solid and individually able handicapper. I have made a lot of progress within the last 18 months though.

Anyway fire away...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Not much of a well rounded life IMO....you would have to travel to different tracks to be trackside always....I don't see how people make any money at simulcast locations....also very lonely unless you can team up with someone to share expenses, risk, and profit...even going to the track everyday gets old real fast unless maybe you are an owner/ trainer, I don't know maybe that gets old too....it's a lonely game...horseplayers are generally Oddfellows to chum around with...

[lamboguy]

when you do business with Citibank and you deposit $100,000 with they they pay you something like 1% interest on your money and give you thank you points every month that convert over to about another 1%. I was explained by Citibank that those points are non-taxable. other banks have similar programs. asked my accountant about this and he was in agreement with Citibank, however the points that Citibank gives you, they expense out and there is supposed to be a tax on the person or company that receives the benefit of this tax deduction.

considering that a rebate on horse race betting is the closest thing to Citibank rewards i would say that this is an untapped gray area that might be revisited at some later date. banks always get breaks on their taxes while regular people like us always get slammed,. that is just the way life is. i don't know how much longer we can classify ourselves the same way banks do. the good thing is that horse race rebates are such a small part of the economy and the IRS might have bigger fish to fry, it might take them a long time before they get to us.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Not much of a well rounded life IMO....you would have to travel to different tracks to be trackside always....I don't see how people make any money at simulcast locations....also very lonely unless you can team up with someone to share expenses, risk, and profit...even going to the track everyday gets old real fast unless maybe you are an owner/ trainer, I don't know maybe that gets old too....it's a lonely game...horseplayers are generally Oddfellows to chum around with...

I can't agree with what you say here. What percentage of the working population would you say gets up at sunrise...so they could spend the next 10+ hours of the day, first preparing for...and then working at a job that they dislike...for a boss who they think dislikes THEM? And then they keep doing this for the next 40 years or so. Is THIS much of a "well-rounded life"? Professional gambling is just like any other "job"...except that it affords you the freedom to do your work on your OWN terms...instead of forcing you to operate on someone ELSE'S schedule. Your "job" cannot supply you with the "life balance" that you seek...that's what your NON-WORKING life is for.

Yes...the professional gambler has to provide for his own "employment benefits"...but every day of his life is alive with new possibilities. He trades in the "security" of a regular paycheck...for the freedom and "aliveness" that he feels every day. I know...I know. You keep reading here about how "exhausting" professional gambling is...and how "tormented" the pro gambler is...because he doesn't receive any "public recognition".

Don't believe a word of it!

The professional gambler can't wait for the next day to come...and if he needs a "trophy"...he goes out and BUYS one. Not having to bow his head down to a boss, and making up his own schedule...makes up for whatever negative side-effects his "job" may cause. Is this lifestyle for EVERYONE? Of course not...nor SHOULD it be. But for some select individuals...it's the only life that they care to lead.

After all...we only go around once in this life.

[lamboguy]

as far as winning at this game is concerned, some very few people are exceptionally talented in not only picking winners but knowing how and when to bet their money. the tough part with this game is get a realistic return on your money. my guess is that anywhere between 1/2%-1% is very realistic after you get a top rebate. although i happen to know a couple of players that do win without a rebate, the game remains virtually impossible to win without one.

if you bet $1 million per year it is quite feasible to show a $10,000 profit for the calendar year. to get to that million is very tough. you can't bet 10 races for $100,000 each and handle the $1 million that way, you would be killing your odds. so one would have to devise a way to make many smaller bets that amount to the $million. not easy to do.

back when Nevada booked their own horse bets, i consistently won 7%-10% of what i could get down for. but the world has changed and there isn't a casino that books their own horse bets these days.

there are a few people that specialize in big pool betting that seem to get a slightly bigger return than what i consider to be a feasible return. the guys that i know of Moody and Gallo, have been attacking large carryover pools for many years now. they have 3 things going for them, they get the whole rebate that the house has to give, they are great handicappers, and they bet giant money into the pools. for example when Gulfstream had the jackpot pick six give away day, they spent $200,000 into the pool. they wound up with something like 100 winning tickets on it that paid $4000 for twenty cents. they out performed the parlay by a huge 10 times with that payoff.