Jackpot Horizontals and Carryovers

[Running Amok]

I've never played horizontal wagers beyond the pick-3. Most of the time it's just daily doubles. But recently I've pondered hitting a big ticket when I get those alerts from my ADW about carryover pools.

So I wanted to ask you guys what y'all think about placing jackpot horizontal wagers when a carryover is involved. Like, is it only worth playing when there's a mandatory payout day? Because then its just like a traditional horizontal.

And if it's not a mandatory payout day, is there an amount you feel the jackpot needs to be at before you're interested in wagering?

And by the way, I'm not talking about verticals like the Jackpot Super High 5. That's a different strategy all together and not something I'm interested in playing.

[Robert Fischer]

the general rule for value horseplaying is 'Mandatory Day Only' for any of the rolling Jackpot wagers.

next thing to know is the specific takeout rules, and whether it changes on a Mandatory Day.

lots of possible exceptions to the rule depending on what you want out of the game.

most of those exceptions involve a very cheap lean ticket played at a minimum for entertainment purposes or specifically designed to catch multiple longshots in big fields. Catch lightning in a bottle with a cheap 'lotto ticket' where you will at least hit a good one even if you aren't the only winner.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

the general rule for value horseplaying is 'Mandatory Day Only' for any of the rolling Jackpot wagers.

next thing to know is the specific takeout rules, and whether it changes on a Mandatory Day.

lots of possible exceptions to the rule depending on what you want out of the game.

most of those exceptions involve a very cheap lean ticket played at a minimum for entertainment purposes or specifically designed to catch multiple longshots in big fields. Catch lightning in a bottle with a cheap 'lotto ticket' where you will at least hit a good one even if you aren't the only winner.

Well I am trying to come up with a strategy where if I hit, I AM the only winner.

See, on those mandatory payout day everyone is in it trying to get a slice of the pie. But the trick is to get the whole pie BEFORE a mandatory payout.

And on second thought, if that's the goal, maybe I should be looking at the Jackpot Super High 5 instead!

[ranchwest]

The suggestion I have commonly seen is that jackpot pools favor big money players.

As far as being sure to be the only one to hit, I recently heard about a guy who won a half million dollar P6. He split it with a woman who played her kids' birthdays. If her kids had been born on a different day, he would have won another half million. He beat all of the handicappers and lost half the money to the luckiest woman in town.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

As far as being sure to be the only one to hit, I recently heard about a guy who won a half million dollar P6. He split it with a woman who played her kids' birthdays.

And as far as being sure to be the only one to hit, I have often wondered why more people don't just play numbers like that. After-all, handicapping the races and coming up with the contenders sounds like the way to put a ticket together, but it certainly won't be an exclusive ticket that wins the jackpot...

Unless its a mandatory payout day

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Running Amok

And as far as being sure to be the only one to hit, I have often wondered why more people don't just play numbers like that. After-all, handicapping the races and coming up with the contenders sounds like the way to put a ticket together, but it certainly won't be an exclusive ticket that wins the jackpot...

Unless its a mandatory payout day

Jackpots are only won by exclusive tickets.

People play all sorts of ways all the time.

I saw a woman sitting at a table near me hit an exacta for over $2,000. Everyone asked her how she hit it. Her response? I always play the grays.

There was a $200,000 twin trifecta at Delta Downs. People schemed every way you could imagine how to bring down the pot. The popular idea was to play 20 or more identical tickets in the first leg to have multiple tickets live in the second leg. One old man played one ticket in the first leg and hit the second leg, too... with one ticket. Mostly luck. A lot of luck.

[JohnGalt1]

I've won 13 pick sixes. Nine traditional, most at $2 minimum, the last 4 were sucker jackpot pick sixes. Two reasons I label them sucker bets are because they are jackpot bets, other than mandatory days, and they do not pay out 5/6.

Whenever I handicap a card, I look to see if I can play any and all bets. I even look to see if I can play a sucker jackpot bet.

I either go for it with a large enough wager to the get the whole or large fraction of the pool or go super cheap. Ron Nicoletti and most other TV handicappers tend to present $35-45 tickets.

The 4 I won cost $6.00, $12.40, $16.20, and $100.80.

The last was the day Nyquist won the Florida Derby. It paid $588.

It was not a large fraction of the pool.

[bisket]

The only time I play these wagers is when I’m at the track with my sons or lady friend. It’s for 10$ tops. When I’m at the track for enjoyment lol all of my wagering guidelines go out the window. I bet small and play every race for enjoyment. I rarely find 3 races on a card I have a strong opinion.

I’m a part timer, but I win. If you’re interested in a jackpot throw 20 to 50$ on an exacta or trifecta on a big race with national importance and a large betting pool. We’re betting into a mutual pool. You give away your edge as a skilled handicapper with all of the variables that involve a multi race wager. Meticulously study an upcoming race and don’t be afraid to bet your opinion.

[Running Amok]

Originally Posted by bisket

If you’re interested in a jackpot throw 20 to 50$ on an exacta or trifecta on a big race with national importance and a large betting pool. We’re betting into a mutual pool. You give away your edge as a skilled handicapper with all of the variables that involve a multi race wager. Meticulously study an upcoming race and don’t be afraid to bet your opinion.

Well I've seen my share of big races with national importance and a large betting pools. Some resulted in big payouts but I've also seen heavy favorites win with the second betting choice run second so that's not always a recipe for a jackpot.

However, after further consideration and reading some of the comments here, I've concluded there is no viable strategy to hit these jackpot wagers.

It really is a suckers bet. The jackpots lure you in and if you want to play a few numbers you might get lucky. But it makes no sense to handicapping the races involved and narrow down the contenders, and then play a butt-load of tickets that use those horses when you know damn well that other punters will likely be using most of the same horses. Thus, giving you practically no chance of having an exclusive ticket that takes the jackpot.

I love horse racing and use to go to the track all the time when DRC was open, which was only about a half-hour from my house. Back then, there was a twin trifecta that ranchwest mentioned. I was alive in that a few times but never hit it.

In hindsight, I probably should have come to the conclusion these are suckers bets myself, without coming in here and opening a thread about it. But sometimes for folks like myself it helps to hear what others have to say to realize my crazy ideas are based on a flawed mindset.

Yeah, like I'm going to come up with a strategy to win multi-race jackpots. Suuuure.

[bisket]

The wager that pays off in large betting pools is if the 10-15 to one horse wins. The horse everyone wheels 2nd and 3rd in vertical exotic pools. A large wager in an exotic pool won’t pay as well in smaller mutual pools. Of course a bigger field helps. Triple crown and Breeders Cup are the best. Your best chance for an unlikely result is when a field of horses from the large racing circuits get together for the first time. Your fellow handicappers become fans and you get unlikely overlays sometimes.

[LemonSoupKid]

There are a lot of great posts here, and being a Pick 5 (mostly) and Pick 6 player, I can confirm most of what the savvy men are providing as answers for Mr. Amok.

I hit consecutive pick 5s on BC Friday in 2021, or rather, would have if they didn't "scratch" Modern Games then let him run for purse money only (huh?). It was funny when everyone booed but what did I have beside more money? The satisfaction of coming up big on a tough day, again (though it's obviously not most of the time, especially BC days).

As others have stated, those are the days you play for several reasons. To be honest, I'm a sports bettor in general, and horse racing is one of the worst mathematically/with vig/whales, so I don't even look at it as anything but a challenge and entertainment.

As John Galt said, go large enough to have a real shot when you like most of the races, and are ok with spreading for prices in others, or go cheap. Absolutely. Unfortunately, you'll find if you are really smart and care the most about your money, the latter is far more common as the "correct" play.

I don't think personally you should try to be the lone winner, but if that really is a goal of yours, you'll have to be very selective in playing any tickets at all (which isn't fun of course), and when you fire it has to be when you can single longer horses (5-1 to 15-1) and spread in some of the other races ... and hope.