Beyer assigns a 119!

[cj]

Bellamy Road AQU 09 Apr 119
For all the leaders, see here !

I think he's too high, though it is a really tough call with only two routes, and the other being at 1 1 1/4, and a very windy day to boot.

He has Lost In The Fog at 105 and Forest Danger a 115. I think these are too high by about 4 or 5 points. They crawled early in the LITF race, and blazed in early in the FD race. Beyer had a tough day judging the various pace scenarios, I can tell this already.

[depalma13]

I had it at a 116-118, so it fits pretty well with what I came up with. My guess is they just looked at Survivalist and figured he ran a similar race to what he ran in the Gotham. Had it been exactly the same, I had Bellamy Road at a 121. I didn't think they wanted to give him a number that high, so I thought they would rate Survivalist a little slower than they actually did.

[lsbets]

The horse looked awesome - I wonder what happenned with Gonig Wild - he just stopped. My gut tells me Bellamy won't win the Derby, so he should set up some value as a lot of money will chase him and the high Beyer.

[depalma13]

His high beyer is now a 120.

[cj]

The Prep Capsules on the Triple Crown page lists 120, the Best Beyers page lists 119, not that it matters really. The Santa Anita Derby was given a 98.

[Speed Figure]

I see nothing wrong with that 119 figure. The SA derby has had weak figures for the last 3 years. Horses coming from this race have been non contenders.

[OTM Al]

It seemed to me that the track was running pretty fast in general yesterday, but Bellamy Road was legitimately blazing, as were all 3 of the top horses in the Carter. Lost in the Fog's 105 looked like a jog...he did just enough to win comfortably again, but sure looked to have a whole lot more in the tank had he needed it. Some really exciting horses at the big A Saturday

[ceejay]

Not to demean BR's performance (which was jaw-dropping), I am skeptical about his Derby chances. Two 3 yo preps, only one against stakes company (and perhaps not against the division's best). Front-running style doesn't help his chances either.

I will defiitiely not play him in the futures pool 3 @ 7/2.

[classhandicapper]

I think you almost have to try to beat him in the Derby if he winds up being a solid favorite. His race was terrific, but he did get loose against the second string 3YOs on a track that seemed to playing to speed a bit early (until mid card when the jocks all realized it and started gunning their horses).

I agree that the pace for the Carter was blazing.

Any chance the effects of pace were mitigated to some degree by the effects of the track?

[andicap]

Was the unreal 43.1 in the Carter a result of the track suddenly speeding up for some weird reason -- hey, it happens -- or the jocks realizing there may be a speed bias and blazing to the front.
I agree with Class; I've seen this happen umpteen times before: Speed carries early, the jocks realize it and gun for the lead and then the speed dies because they are all going in ridiculous times, like 43.1.
Don held pretty damn well for going 43.1 so there had to be something unnatural going on with the surface. I mean the horse isn't THAT good.
I, too am skeptical about Bellamy Road's performance. I see perhaps a Derby bounce or inexperience of being in a huge field coming into play -- unless the pace scenario turns out like it did for War Emblem.

Of course, it would be great for the sport if Bellamy Road really was a freak and a superhorse.Then the owners could pretend he suffered a bad injury after the Belmont and retire him to stud.

[cj]

I posted here elsewhere before racing began I expected :43 1:07 from these guys. They are all three exceptionally fast, and I was about 99% certain Aqueduct would be a paved highway. And Don Six is that good since he joined the Lake barn. He needs to stick to 6f though.

[classhandicapper]

CJ,

I agree that a fast pace scenario seemed very likely going into the Carter. I didn't get involved in the race for that reason.

I also got the impression from some of the other races that the jocks sensed that the track was carrying speed and were working harder than usual to make the lead.

I guess it depends on whether you believe there was a speed bias or not yesterday to begin with, but assuming there was, do you think the impact of a speed bias might mitigate the impact of pace to some degree or that some of the very fast fractions were to some degree the result of jocks working a lot harder for the lead than usual and not due to just track speed.

[classhandicapper]

Has anyone read anything anywhere about what happened to Bellamy Road in his one loss?

[cj]

He was "Dickinson-ed?" He doesn't look like such a "mad genius" now, eh?

I actually had him running his best race to date, an 86. His debut was an 80, then an 83, then the loss.

[classhandicapper]

Yea, after I asked the question I went back to your figures and saw that. I guess at that point in his career he wasn't good enough to handle the pace of that race.