Where are the horses?

[startngate]

Several things go into it:

1) Foal Crop
There are fewer horses in training.

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

3) No (or little) penalty scratches
It's way too easy to get out of races these days. Everyone enters, then looks at the overnight and scratches if they're "in too tough". That used to get you on the Vet's or Steward's list. No more.

4) Owner and Trainer Stats
Combination with #3. Owners and trainers both want their records to show high win and ITM percentages, so they only run where they think they can win.

5) Testing is getting better
For all of the "juicing" that is going on, testing is actually getting better, so horses that might have been able to run more often if they were getting something that wasn't tested for in the past, are taking more time between starts.

6) Fragility of the breed
Combination with #5. Horses aren't being bred all that well anymore. Decades of breeding for speed and the proliferation of running on meds has hurt the durability of the breed, so they have to make fewer starts.

7) Slots filled purses
If you were running for a $10k pot before slots and a $30k pot after, obviously you don't have to make as many starts to make the same money.

8) Insane State Bred Purses
With some States, the State bred bonus structure is so out of whack that in places where there is only one meet and the horses aren't competitive for anything other than cheap claiming races outside of the state bred races, horses will be put on the shelf for the rest of the year. For example, a MN bred Maiden Special runs for $32k and the winner has the opportunity to run in a bunch of allowance and MN bred Stakes races if decent. Take that horse to Turf Paradise or Tampa in the winter and that same horse is going to have to run for a tag to have any shot at hitting the board, but won't get entered because it would get claimed by someone who will then wait to run for higher purse money in MN.

9) Jockeys and Agents control the entry box
A lot of times horses won't get entered unless "so and so" can ride. Agents are trying to set their jockeys up to win races, and regularly hold entries, or try to get trainers to move to other spots because their rider has another mount for that race and they don't want to lose the mount. It's the worst at tracks when you have a lot of jockeys that "ride the barn" for Super Trainers, or one jockey that's far ahead in the standings.

Probably some other factors I am missing, but this is a pretty good list.

[green80]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This kind of raises an argument to reduce purses or only payout to maybe 3rd or 4th place.

Some of the tracks that have the fullest fields pay every place.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A 12-horse race gets scratched down to 2 horses...and the race purse remains the same.

Purse and takeout remain the same. Both should be field size dependent.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by startngate

Several things go into it:
2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

This is by far the biggest issue...not even a close 2nd. Trainers having so many horses and unwilling to run them against each other is a massive problem.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by startngate

Several things go into it:

1) Foal Crop
There are fewer horses in training.

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

3) No (or little) penalty scratches
It's way too easy to get out of races these days. Everyone enters, then looks at the overnight and scratches if they're "in too tough". That used to get you on the Vet's or Steward's list. No more.

4) Owner and Trainer Stats
Combination with #3. Owners and trainers both want their records to show high win and ITM percentages, so they only run where they think they can win.

5) Testing is getting better
For all of the "juicing" that is going on, testing is actually getting better, so horses that might have been able to run more often if they were getting something that wasn't tested for in the past, are taking more time between starts.

6) Fragility of the breed
Combination with #5. Horses aren't being bred all that well anymore. Decades of breeding for speed and the proliferation of running on meds has hurt the durability of the breed, so they have to make fewer starts.

7) Slots filled purses
If you were running for a $10k pot before slots and a $30k pot after, obviously you don't have to make as many starts to make the same money.

8) Insane State Bred Purses
With some States, the State bred bonus structure is so out of whack that in places where there is only one meet and the horses aren't competitive for anything other than cheap claiming races outside of the state bred races, horses will be put on the shelf for the rest of the year. For example, a MN bred Maiden Special runs for $32k and the winner has the opportunity to run in a bunch of allowance and MN bred Stakes races if decent. Take that horse to Turf Paradise or Tampa in the winter and that same horse is going to have to run for a tag to have any shot at hitting the board, but won't get entered because it would get claimed by someone who will then wait to run for higher purse money in MN.

9) Jockeys and Agents control the entry box
A lot of times horses won't get entered unless "so and so" can ride. Agents are trying to set their jockeys up to win races, and regularly hold entries, or try to get trainers to move to other spots because their rider has another mount for that race and they don't want to lose the mount. It's the worst at tracks when you have a lot of jockeys that "ride the barn" for Super Trainers, or one jockey that's far ahead in the standings.

Probably some other factors I am missing, but this is a pretty good list.

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done.

Amen! Real nice post startngate - I appreciate the thought and effort put into the post.

[TravisVOX]

Originally Posted by startngate

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

This is not talked about nearly enough IMO.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done.

100% agree.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by TravisVOX

This is not talked about nearly enough IMO.

Agree. That was the intention of the Parity in Racing thread, but it took off in another direction.

When 3 or 4 guys have most of the horses, we are left with these smaller fields.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by green80

Some of the tracks that have the fullest fields pay every place.

Last I checked most races payout to every place. I think it changed maybe 7 - 10 years ago. Part of my thinking was, we want to have the connections wanting to win a part of the purses whenever entered because you never know when the next opportunity will arise.

With purse values so high and the payout to all entries sort of affects this goal because the connections may feel that there is always another one which will come up within the next few days.

Btw, I think we've discussed this before where you felt if they changed the purse values and payout structure that the smaller outfits would be hurt more than the larger outfits.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Agree. That was the intention of the Parity in Racing thread, but it took off in another direction.

When 3 or 4 guys have most of the horses, we are left with these smaller fields.

Being from Northern California the problem here is exactly that. We have about 3 or 4 trainers who have the ability to control it all.

Hollendorfer
Martin
Morey
Sherman

It would be even worse if Martin and Morey didn't derive such pleasure from beating Jerry

Love my Bay Area racing but it's unplayable. Especially now that Russell has retired.

All of his mounts were a point or two below their true price. Made for occasional opportunities.

That's gone now too.

Oh well no getting around some places in our sport are in dire shape. Not Oaklawn!! of course.

But they'll still have to drag me out kicking and screaming from GGF.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

It was more of a rhetorical question. You'd think people would want to run more with these purses.

Did you see the field assembled for 73 thousand in the 3rd? Terrible.

Sorry about that

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

This kind of raises an argument to reduce purses or only payout to maybe 3rd or 4th place.

Why penalize the connections that DO RUN?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by affirmedny

Why penalize the connections that DO RUN?

I don't want to do that either.

It's that I've noticed an increase in these late scratches in the last few years. Before, they just wouldn't enter. I pointed out on here a few years ago since after a take out rate increase which occurred years before in Cali which was supposed to increase the field sizes. The fields didn't increase as promised but some have and what I did notice was the purse values did increase but they started paying out to all entries.

There's always an unexpected result so I don't see why we shouldn't reverse something when the proposed claimed effect doesn't occur. Instead now we have a higher takeout, still small fields due to scratches or whatever, larger purses but now all entries get paid.

[Nitro]

Threads like this are so prevalent that the reality of it all is almost nauseating. The sad thing is that most of the observations are true.

However, it’s refreshing to know that not a single thought or comment on this thread applies to the horse racing in Hong Kong. They’ve obviously got their act together and their patronage vouches for every aspect of their game.

I’m looking forward to those big fields and big value, and it’s only a month away!